Stock market crash: The Nifty 50 slips below 24,000 !!

Stock market crash: The Nifty 50 slips below 24,000.

Nifty 50 has declined 0.5% over the past one month and has fallen nearly 7.7% in the last three months. Monday’s decline below the crucial 24,000 mark has further weakened near-term sentiment, with broader market breadth also turning negative.

Nifty 50 has strong weekly trendline support in the 22,400 – 22,200 zone, followed by the crucial 200-week EMA support near the 22,000 mark.

The Indian stock market slumped on Monday, extending losses for the third consecutive session, as broad-based selling intensified amid escalating concerns over the ongoing US-Iran conflict and its potential impact on the domestic economy.

The Sensex crashed 891.66 points, or 1.15%, to 76,436.53, while the Nifty 50 declined 240.60 points, or 1.00%, to 23,935.55.

The latest sell-off was triggered by the absence of any breakthrough in the US-Iran war, after US President Donald Trump and Iran rejected each other’s recent peace proposals, keeping geopolitical tensions elevated despite efforts to maintain a fragile ceasefire.

Investor sentiment weakened further after Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to reduce consumption of petrol and diesel, gold, chemical fertilisers and edible oil, while also discouraging non-essential foreign travel.

The appeal was widely interpreted as a crisis-management response aimed at containing the widening current account deficit (CAD) amid elevated crude oil prices caused by the Middle East conflict.

“This call for austerity has slightly negative implication for economic growth in FY27. Particularly, the industries related to the austerity call like petroleum, chemical fertilisers, gold, air travel, hotel and related sectors will be sentimentally impacted. Sectors like pharmaceuticals which will not be impacted in any manner will remain resilient,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.

The benchmark Nifty 50 has declined 0.5% over the past one month and has fallen nearly 7.7% in the last three months. Monday’s decline below the crucial 24,000 mark has further weakened near-term sentiment, with broader market breadth also turning negative.

Can Nifty slip below 22,000?

On the weekly timeframe, the Nifty 50 recently faced strong resistance in the 24,300–24,500 zone, which coincides with the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) and continues to act as a significant resistance band.

“Following this rejection, Nifty 50 has witnessed renewed downside pressure and has now slipped below the important 100-week EMA support, indicating weakening medium-term momentum. The current price structure reflects a pattern of lower highs, suggesting sellers are becoming increasingly active at higher levels, while volatility is also gradually rising,” said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking.

Nifty 50 has breached key short-term moving averages, while momentum indicators continue to signal downside pressure unless the index quickly reclaims the 24,150 – 24,250 range. Investors should be cautious now.

Nifty options data signals caution

From a derivatives perspective, significant Call Open Interest is concentrated around the 24,200–24,500 zone, reinforcing it as a strong resistance band for the current expiry. On the downside, Put writers remain active near the 23,500 and 23,000 strikes, indicating these levels could provide immediate support, Tailor said.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has also softened, reflecting cautious sentiment and defensive positioning among market participants. Unless the Nifty 50 decisively reclaims the 24,200–24,500 range, the index may continue to witness volatile and pressure-driven trading sessions, he added.

“However, despite the ongoing weakness, a fall below 22,000 still appears to be a low-probability extreme bearish scenario rather than the base-case expectation,” Tailor said.

Nifty Bank crashes nearly 1,000 points, IT pack resilient amid stock market fall

Technically, strong weekly trendline support is placed in the 22,400 – 22,200 zone, followed by the crucial 200-week EMA support near the 22,000 mark, collectively forming a major long-term demand area for the index.

Key factors driving the decline in the Sensex and Nifty50 include:

• Geopolitical Conflict & Oil Prices: Renewed conflict in the Middle East has sparked fears of oil supply disruptions, driving up prices and worrying investors about inflation.
• Heavy Foreign Investor Selling: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are pulling funds out of Indian equities, creating significant downward pressure.
• Weakening Rupee: The Indian Rupee is facing pressure, hitting record lows, which negatively affects market sentiment.
  
• Overvalued Market Sentiment: The market was previously viewed as overvalued, and current volatility is leading to profit-taking and caution.
• Sectoral Weakness: Banking, financial services, oil & gas, and metal stocks have led the decline as investors avoid high-risk assets

Rupee is touching fresh low. Abki baar 100 paar

Originally posted by: nutmeg7

Rupee is touching fresh low. Abki baar 100 paar