My Box Office Predictions for Befikre

srkat thumbnail
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Posted: 8 years ago
#1
DILWALE DULHANIA LE JAAYENGE. MOHABBATEIN. RAB NE BANA DI JODI. All three of these films were Blockbusters at the box office,especially the first film, which is one of the All Time Blockbuster in Indian cinema and still runs at Maratha Mandir cinema!

Besides the fact of course that all three films starred Shah Rukh Khan, there was the director himself: Aditya Chopra. These three films cemented him as one of the top directors in Bollywood, with a 100% super-success ratio at the box office!

It so happens that in 2015, Aditya Chopra announced that after 7 years, he will finally be directing a film again. Curiosity was bound to hit the roof. He also posted an imaginary conversation that he had with his father, the legendary Yash Chopra (who passed away in 2012) in which he gave some details about his next directorial...



Some key notes from this imaginary conversation were as follows, from Aditya Chopra:

-Adi told Yash that he may not be happy with his script as it isn't one of the bigger YRF films and that it probably doesn't have the potential to be as successful as Adi's earlier films

-Adi says that he loved the script so much that instead of just producing it, he decided he will direct it too

-he called it a light-hearted romance, and his "happiest, youngest, riskiest" film

-he wants to free himself from the burden of 100 crore, 200 crore film collection and better his films instead of his number and that numbers will follow if he does what makes himself happy


and the conversation ends with Yash Chopra telling Adi to make the film he loves with conviction and "BEFIKAR ho ke"


Okay. That all is fine. Furthermore, Adi got Ranveer Singh on board, who later gave a 180+ crore grosser in BAJIRAO MASTANI during Christmas 2015. Solid decision to cast him.


The theatrical trailer of BEFIKRE was released two months ago, in October. After watching this trailer, Yash Chopra, god bless his soul, must be thinking from there in heaven...


"beta, yeh kya bana diya tumne!"


Cheap. Vulgar. Storyless. Soulless. Soft po*n. NEAL AND NIKKI 2. These are just some of the insults that the film has received from viewers after the promos, and more that will follow after the release of the film! What was Aditya Chopra trying to show in the very first promo he released, song promo of Labon Ka Karobaar where many couples are shown making out, including a gay couple?


Questions for Aditya Chopra: Why? How? After directing three films that were rooted in traditional Indian values that easily connected with the Indian audience, desi films that had a soul and showed pure romance, how did you manage to make something that looks like a sequel to a maha flop film that your company produced 11 years ago in NEAL AND NIKKI? Seriously, if back in 2005 after NEAL AND NIKKI released, someone were to tell another that Aditya Chopra himself will be directing a similar type of film 11 years later, the other's response would be "bullshit, that's never going to happen!"


The funny thing is, Adi's friend who is also one of the top directors in Bollywood, Karan Johar, recently delivered AE DIL HAI MUSHKIL, which is the opposite of BEFIKRE. ADHM did receive mixed feedback from viewers, but one can easily see Karan Johar's effort in the film to bring a soul to the film, through its emotions, dialogues, intensity, songs, etc. The only time he directed a film that can be called soulless was STUDENT OF THE YEAR, but even then it worked well enough with the youth and was a successful launch to newcomers. Karan Johar has proven that he can direct successful films at the box office without SRK, but in the case of Aditya Chopra, it doesn't seem like that will be the case. With BEFIKRE, Aditya Chopra is taking an established star in Ranveer Singh, who has all the momentum in the world after defeating Shah Rukh Khan at the box office last Christmas, and inserting him in a silly-looking rom-com that appears to have no story, no soul. BEFIKRE's runtime is 2 hours and 10 minutes, which reaffirms the fact that this will just be a rom-com with nothing memorable to take away from it, story-wise. As a matter of fact, most of what has been shown so far from the film has been Ranveer Singh and Vaani Kapoor making out, as if this element is the basis of the film. Sorry, but in today's time one can watch such stuff online for free, people don't want to pay money for it!


Vaani Kapoor as a heroine is not helping matters, unfortunately. Many have been completely put off by whatever she has done to her face, as many feel that she looks like a man rather than a typical good-looking heroine.


Anyways, all negativity aside, let's get to the positives, whatever little there is. The songs Ude Dil Befikre and Nashe Si Chadh Gayi have been gaining popularity. Also, Ranveer Singh is returning on-screen a year after his huge success BAJIRAO MASTANI, and this factor combined with Aditya Chopra marking his return as a director after 8 years will ensure a strong opening for the film at least. The opening will be best at urban multiplexes as this is a urban multiplex film.


After the good opening that the film gets, it will be a free fall from there! Collections will come spiralling downwards as I am expecting the WOM (Word of Mouth) to be extremely negative. A few people amongst the urban youth may like the film, but the family audience will reject the film outright.


Old-school directors usually have a mentality from the past when releasing their films. I still remember how Anil Sharma mentioned that he is okay with SINGH SAHAB THE GREAT releasing against GORI TERE PYAR MEIN in 2013 as he felt that his film will do well on content and that it will eventually find an audience. Of course, he was thinking about when his GADAR became a huge blockbuster against LAGAAN. He didn't realize though the fact that the event happened in 2001, and in 2013, things became different: huge increase in theatres, screens, shows, and more forms of entertainment, piracy, mean that films now have very short shelf lives in theatres, so even though his SSTG opened better than GTPM, it did nothing in the long run as the opening was not huge and neither was the content strong enough to attract viewers in the initial week, and initial business is what matters most in today's time.


Similarly, Aditya Chopra seems to have followed a similar model to what he did in 2008, releasing his film 2 weeks before the big Aamir Khan Christmas release. RAB NE BANA DI JODI at the time became a Blockbuster, but that was a time where if the film's content was appreciated by the audience, films would run for longer weeks in theatres than they do now, so RNBDJ was still able to somewhat stand the GHAJINI wave at the box office by doing huge business due to it's content being appreciated by the audience. Also, films back then becoming Blockbusters in non-holiday period was more common. In today's time where it's mostly about the initial business, BEFIKRE has only two weeks to perform as much as it can before Aamir Khan's DANGAL arrives, and with weak content, BEFIKRE is not going to be able to capitalize on those two weeks, and then will be washed out after DANGAL releases. As a matter of fact, I am confident that BEFIKRE won't even gross as much net collections in its lifetime as RNBDJ did in a similar release period in 2008!


Opening Day: 10.5 crores net

Opening Weekend: 30+ crores net

Lifetime Collections: 58 crores net

Overall Box Office Verdict: Flop


Film critic KRK said it best when he said that along with a ticket to this film, each viewer should also receive a free condom to watch the film, as he regularly calls this a po*n film! 😆

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Ranbirrocks thumbnail
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Posted: 8 years ago
#2
SRKat - This time you have a slight risk of going wrong. some RS fans are claiming that movie isn't about kisses and content is good.
So if the movie is great and kisses are not anti- family ( I don't know how it's possible), this may be average movie and escape Flop.
It's future hangs on WOM. It can crash badly as Kahani2 is picking up and DZ is still getting appreciation .

PS - I love your analysis and the past references that you bring to make your point. I always read your posts 2-3 times. I wish forum shows more love to your hard work .
Edited by Ranbirrocks - 8 years ago
Agni_Jytsona thumbnail

Thriller Tribe

Posted: 8 years ago
#3
Nice analysis 😊
Well sorry if i sound rude but i wabt this film ti crash badly so that filmmakers can take a note and stop such gross movies without any content( going by the trailer)
Edited by adhyakumarijha - 8 years ago
bokul thumbnail
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Posted: 8 years ago
#4
You are mostly right so let us wait
Too_Much thumbnail
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Posted: 8 years ago
#5
i don't think it will be as per your prediction..they heavily promoted as sleazy, but emotion romance will be there..
fivestars thumbnail
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Posted: 8 years ago
#6
as expected ! 1 thing is sure iam not going to watch this movie in theatre !😆
448368 thumbnail
Posted: 8 years ago
#7
Lets see who sells sex better, Sunny or RV 😆
Choco_Cosmos thumbnail
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Posted: 8 years ago
#8
As always nice analysis.. Your predictions come true 90% of the time. You shoul be in the industry as you can save a lot of money being wasted on bad projects.. 😃
srkat thumbnail
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Posted: 8 years ago
#9

Originally posted by: Choco_Cosmos

As always nice analysis.. Your predictions come true 90% of the time. You shoul be in the industry as you can save a lot of money being wasted on bad projects.. 😃


haha thank you! 😃 I would actually love to join the industry, but because I live in Canada, it would be tough! 😕
srkat thumbnail
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Posted: 8 years ago
#10

Originally posted by: Angelberry

Oh dear 🤣🤣


lol is my prediction funny or just what I've written?

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