Are the Congress Party days numbered?

Now that all the Left Parties have decided to withdraw from the coalition will Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh's government survive? I have a feeling that the Bhartiya Janta Party is going to be a major beneficiary with this fall out. Oh oh there goes Laloo.

Oh oh here come the Samajwadi Party Knights in Shining Armor Amar Singh and Mulayum Singh to the rescue of the distressed damsel Sonia Gandhi, her Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and her kingdom.

Trust vote: Congress looks confident but shaken

21 Jul 2008, 0028 hrs IST, Bhaskar Roy ,TNN

NEW DELHI: Congress had entered the weekend confident and perhaps a little complacent about surviving the critical trust vote in Lok Sabha on Tuesday.

The numbers worked out by party managers had given them the comfort of getting through the rough and rigour of the acid test with RLD chief Ajit Singh and JD(S) boss H D Deve Gowda dropping hints of coming on board. Then, smashing the cool comfort of a wet Sunday morning came a blitz which loomed like a bad omen on the Congress horizon.

In a matter of hours, Ajit Singh and Gowda — both having three votes each in the Lok Sabha — did a volte face. Ajit Singh met Mayawati and told TV channels that his party MPs would vote against government. The IIT graduate railed against nuclear energy and extolled virtues of hydel electricity.

Gowda's son Kumaraswamy, former Karnataka CM, made an appearance at a press conference Mayawati addressed, leaving no doubts about the sudden U-turn the Gowda family had made. "The single-point programme before us is to defeat the UPA government on July 22, all our leaders now have to work to ensure that," the Uttar Pradesh chief minister said.

With Left stalwarts Prakash Karat and A B Bardhan, TDP boss Chandrababu Naidu and Kumaraswamy looking reverentially at her from the side, this could be Mayawati's finest hour in politics. One Congress spin doctor admitted that with the UP CM's emergence on the scene like a Goliath, the complexion of the numbers game had changed. "But for her the opposition would not have been in contention," he said. Party mandarins accused Mayawati of unleashing resources made available by the industrialists in her state.

She almost had guessed the allegation. "Mulayam Singh and his friends are talking of MPs from their camp being bought over; I would like to ask them to give names of those who have purchased the MPs and for how much," Mayawati said. She perhaps wanted to focus on the nuclear deal only but the Leftists persuaded her to raise the issue of inflation as well.

Echoing Mayawati, Karat said that the only job on hand was to get rid of the government. "We will meet on July 23 to chalk out a future programme," he said. Faced with so much action, Congress maintained that close to the finishing line, its movement was "silent and surreptitious". One party manager hinted that faced with the setbacks, the sharpshooters from the government were looking at "unsuspected territory". He probably meant those constituents of the NDA which had not so far appeared vulnerable to poaching.

With each and every vote now absolutely crucial, late night reports suggest that CPM has renewed pressure on Somnath Chatterjee to quit as Speaker after publicly saying it was up to him to decide.

The all-out poaching drive saw Samajwadi Party leader Amar Singh displaying BJP MP from Balrampur Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh to the media on Sunday evening and UPA managers hinting that there were more defections in the pipeline. They suggested two JD(U) MPs — P P Koya and Ramswaroop Prasad — would part company with NDA.

Though set back by Ajit Singh and Deve Gowda, UPA managers tried to recoup their losses by targeting Shiv Sena MPs and others belonging to the NDA. They refused to drop the claim even after 11 of the 12 Sainik MPs attended a dinner hosted by Leader of Opposition L K Advani on Sunday.

UPA pads up for slog overs

Saroj Nagi and Shekhar Iyer, Hindustan Times

New Delhi, July 21, 2008

First Published: 01:55 IST(21/7/2008)

Last Updated: 02:53 IST(21/7/2008)

The murky backroom battle to gain control of India see-sawed all of Sunday as the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) appeared to be just two short of the 272 votes it needs — before Prime Minister Manmohan Singh comes to the Lok Sabha on Monday to move a one-line motion to seek the House's confidence in his council of ministers.

But victory is not certain. The Opposition numbers at midnight on Sunday stood at 266, just four short of the UPA's figures as hectic meetings continued into the night. The Congress tried to keep its flock intact by asking party leaders — also deputed to snatch Opposition MPs — to host dinners, breakfasts and lunches.

The numbers game will continue its roller-coaster ride over the next two days. As the debate before the trust vote unfolds over at least 16 hours, one-member parties and MPs are out to strike it rich or push their pet projects either through the UPA or the Opposition (graphic).

An example: Ladakh MP Thupstan Chhewang. "My demand is for a union territory status for Ladakh,'' he said. Only the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been sympathetic. But he's clearly offering his vote to the UPA — provided he gets what he wants.

There were claims and counter claims from both camps about numbers that would save the government — or bring it down. The ruling coalition claimed the confidence of a "comfortable majority". But the CPM's Prakash Karat declared that "the government is doomed". The BSP's Mayawati continued her attempts to emerge as the nucleus of a third front and position herself as PM.

The boost to the UPA came from five JMM MPs with party leader Shibu Soren saying he was again become Coal Minister; BJP MP-turned-rebel Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh from UP's Balrampur, JD-U's Ram Swaroop from Bihar CM Nitish Kumar's constituency Nalanda; and Loktantrik Party MP Baleshwar Yadav. The lone Bodoland People's Front member S.K. Bwiswmuthiary from Assam also committed his vote to the UPA.

These commitments made more palatable the dinner the Prime Minister hosted for UPA allies and new-found friends at the five-star Hotel Ashok, even as a group of party leaders, who will debate the confidence motion over two days reportedly got a briefing from National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan and Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon.

To boost its tally, the Congress-led coalition is now focusing on the single-MP parties and individual MPs from varied parties. "Our attempt will be to win MPs from the Opposition camp to either vote for us or to abstain,'' said a Congress leader.

Party leaders said talks were on with three Shiv Sena and one BJP member in Maharahstra, three BJP members from Gujarat and a couple of JD-U members. SP's Amar Singh too claimed his party was in touch with some BJP MPs and seven BSP MPs.

"There will be surprises from unexpected quarters," boasted Union Minister Prithviraj Chavan, He's pegging his hopes on the fact that anti-defection laws will not deter most MPs from switching sides because general elections are nine months away: They don't mind losing their membership for that period. The Congress also claimed the support of the two-member NC.

The Congress' confidence of breaking into the Opposition camp was corroborated by BJP's fears that six MPs may not show up for the vote.

These included suspended Gujarat MPs Somabhai Patel and Babulal Katara; Dharward South MP Manjunath Channappa and Chikmagalur member D.C. Srikanthappa, both from Karnataka; M.C. Kanodia from Patan in Gujarat and H.C. Chavan from Malegaon in Maharashtra are bed-ridden and cannot travel to Delhi though the BJP has kept an ambulance ready for them. The Sena members considered vulnerable include Tukaram Renge Patil, Anand Gudhe and Bhavana Gawali.

21 Jul 2008, 0745 hrs IST, S Balakrishnan,TNN

MUMBAI: Despite brave talk by the Shiv Sena leadership that all its 12 MPs will vote against the UPA government on July 22, there's considerable nervousness within the party.

It's learnt that at least three of its MPs have been approached not only by the Congress and NCP, but also by bookies.

It appears that the bookies led by Hitesh Samrat and Ajay Maheshwari — they consider UPA government as the odds-on favourite to survive the trust vote — have developed huge stakes in the continuance of the UPA government and are going all out to try and fix the outcome of the trust vote.

"The going rate for an MP has shot up to a mind-boggling Rs 50 crore with 50% being the down payment," said a senior Maharashtra intelligence official on Sunday. More attention is being paid to those MPs who have lost their constituencies in the delimitation exercise. "The reasoning is that since these MPs have no constituency to fight from, they'll be more vulnerable to allurements," a Sena leader admitted.

After last night's meeting at Shiv Sena boss Balasaheb Thackeray's residence, Matoshri, leader of Sena's parliamentary group Anant Gite insisted that the party was intact and that all the 12 MPs would vote against the UPA. But now the party is taking extra precautions on "vulnerable" MPs. Even if one MP cross votes or abstains, it will be a huge loss of face for Sena executive president Uddhav Thackeray. That's why his detractors outside the party are working overtime to woo Sena MPs.

It's learnt that two leading bookies are camping in an upscale New Delhi hotel and contacting their potential targets. The Congress and NCP recognize that they stand to lose heavily if the UPA government falls and early elections are held.

"Anti-incumbency is so strong in Maharashtra that it will be cakewalk for the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance if elections are held now," a senior Congress minister admitted.

"The consequences of a defeat on July 22 go beyond Lok Sabha elections. They will impact the assembly polls next," he added.

Meanwhile, political parties are hiring private detectives to keep a tab on their MPs. K Krishnan, chairman of Venus Detectives, told TOI: "We've been hired by some parties to keep a watch on their MPs and major players. We are not interested in politics and are only executing a professional job of shadowing those whose names have been given to us by politicians."

Unease in BJP over the rise and rise of Maya

Suman K Jha

Posted online: Monday , July 21, 2008 at 08:57:33

Updated: Monday , July 21, 2008 at 08:53:57

As N Chandrababu Naidu, Prakash Karat and A B Bardhan took turns to fete Mayawati at a joint press conference today, the BJP was already squirming. "In the last one week, we came across as a party too eager to dislodge the government. As the Congress matched us step by step, Karat went into an overdrive, resulting in an across-the-board acceptability for Mayawati," said a BJP leader.

"After going the whole hog for the government's ouster, we cannot be seen as backtracking. Apart from a credibility crisis, this can well be used by Mayawati later to argue that we ganged up with the Congress because a Dalit prime minister appeared a possibility," the leader said.

It is not Mayawati alone that is weighing heavy on the BJP's mind, though. "By getting the Jat-dominated Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) on board, she has pulled off an impossible coup. A Dalit-Muslim combine with a smattering of the Brahmins/Upper Castes, and the Jats in western UP, will decimate everyone else, including us," pointed out another BJP leader.

Little surprise then that BJP president Rajnath Singh is already said to be debating if he should contest at all from Ghaziabad/Gautam Buddha Nagar, both likely to go to the RLD quota, as per the pact cemented between the BSP and RLD. A Rajnath Singh supporter, however, made light of the assessment. "Has he ever said that he has zeroed in those two seats?" he asked.

Post-alliance, while Uttar Pradesh could be known as the exclusive BSP zone, the UNPA allies could prove to be the BJP's bugbear. Indian National Lok Dal's Ajay Chautala, Asom Gana Parishad's Brindaban Goswami and Jharkhand Vikas Manch's Babulal Marandi — all three UNPA constituents were in talks for a tie-up with the BJP — were present at the meeting that anointed Mayawati as their future leader. Chautala, however, did say that the Mayawati-as-future PM could wait and that Operation Topple should be the priority for now.

"Mayawati's marginal presence will strengthen Deve Gowda substantially in Karnataka. In states where she is a non-entity, the very idea of a Dalit PM will fire the Dalit population's imagination. Non-Congress parties will now have an option other than the NDA, and this could be our biggest problem in the days to come," said a BJP leader.

He added that the BJP's attempts to woo Shibu Soren showed the divide in the party. While leaders close to L K Advani saw merit in getting the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha into the alliance, even if it meant gifting him the state chief ministership, Rajnath had a different take. The BJP president, while stressing that government formation should be the party's priority, argued that three of the five JMM MPs had already been won over by the Congress. BJP general secretary Arun Jaitley, too, veered towards the latter view.

It was the Rajya Sabha leadership of both the BJP and the CPM that initially met to draw a common anti-UPA strategy, but as the BJP faltered, the CPM reached out to the BSP apart from the TDP, TRS, RLD and JD(S), thus cementing a formidable alliance.

A BJP ideologue, however, sounded a word of caution. "True, Mayawati has gained by default in the last one week, but it will be premature to put Mayawati in the same league as Advani." Another leader pointed to Advani's speech at a function in Delhi today. "Advani quoted management guru C K Prahlad while talking about 'three waves of India's Independence'. Mayawati, on the other hand, appeals to India's primordial instincts. This is one choice that Young India will have to make."

As the July 22 trust vote outcome hinges on last-minute defections and abstentions, the BJP will not be looking forward to its outcome alone. "An early election suits us. But the bigger challenge now is to prove that the Mayawati-led alliance is just maya — an illusion. She has never been a group player; hers has been a solo political odyssey so far. The Atal-Advani duo, on the other hand, successfully ran a 24-party coalition for five years," said a BJP leader.

Foreign media plays up horsetrading

22 Jul 2008, 0158 hrs IST,TNN

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati (TOI Photo)

NEW DELHI: For long, India has been the toast of foreign media as the world's largest democracy. But this time round, the country is making news abroad for allegations of "multi-million-pound bribe offers" to MPs and Mayawati's emergence as the PM-in waiting and the main challenger to the UPA government struggling to win a trust vote.

The Independent said "multimillion-pound bribes, MPs serving jail terms and some in intensive care are among the arsenal of weapons being wielded in a dramatic battle". On a similar line, the Guardian observed, "Such is the uncertainty over the vote that a number of jailed parliamentarians — some convicted of murder — have been granted temporary release while other MPs allegedly been offered multi-million pound bribes to vote."

The Guardian went on to say, "No one can predict any outcome apart from the continuing rise of Kumari Mayawati, who last year pulled off a surprise landslide election victory in the country's most populous state."

Matt Wade of the Sydney Morning Herald wrote, "A last-minute power play by the low-caste female political leader Kumari Mayawati has left India's Congress-led government scrambling for votes... the political clout Mayawati has demonstrated over the past few days has triggered renewed speculation she could emerge as the next prime minister, and the first from among India's low-caste community."

The Independent observed that a key player to emerge in the drama of trust vote had been "the so-called Dalit Queen, Mayawati, the head of India's largest state, UP, who has vowed that her own caste-based party will also vote against the government". The report saw potential in the "Dalit Queen" as becoming the future PM. "Indeed, there are many who believe that if she plays her hand carefully, she could conceivably become India's next prime minister."

The Independent further pointed out, "The Congress has offered a cabinet post to Shibhu Soren, the leader of a small regional party in Jharkhand who was convicted and then acquitted of murdering his secretary. The alleged motive for the killing had been his secretary's knowledge of a deal Mr Soren had made with the Congress party to bring down the government in 1993."

Where there's Naidu, there's always failure