My Box Office Predictions for Welcome Back

In 2015, WELCOME is back, with the film literally being titled WELCOME BACK. However, things are not the same this time. The big difference is the casting of the male lead and female lead: Akshay Kumar and Katrina Kaif, the original leads, have been replaced by John Abraham and Shruti Hassan. That is a huge difference in star power, as everyone knows that Akshay is a much bigger box office star than John. With Katrina and Shruti, let's not even compare the difference between star power, because the former is arguably the biggest female Bollywood star in India, whereas the latter is hardly even a star! Akshay and Katrina were amongst the biggest stars of Bollywood even in 2007, especially Akshay who's stardom was at it's peak that time.

The rest of the main actors are similar, with Anil, Nana, and Paresh being retained in the sequel. Feroz Khan has been replaced by Naseerudin Shah. Shiney Ahuja has been added to the WELCOME cast this time for the sequel. The captain of the ship, the director, is the same: Anees Bazmee.

Let's get to the problem straight away! Akshay Kumar was the main actor and the crowd-pulling star of WELCOME. Him not being in the sequel makes the public miss his presence, and the fact is that he has been replaced by someone who has much less star power than him (John Abraham). Even though John Abraham seems to have acted well in this film (as seen from the first theatrical trailer), the fact is that the audience will compare his comedy with that of Akshay Kumar's, and it will become a big struggle for John to match Akshay in the department due to audience expectations! (this will be a similar problem for HERA PHERI 3)

Also, there are other problems that the film faces. One thing is that the film seems to have an out-dated look and feel to it. Also, the film doesn't really have any chartbuster song in it, unlike WELCOME which had several popular songs that were played on television for years (songs such as Uncha Lamba Kad and Honte Raseele).

WELCOME BACK will have a strong opening day collection at the box office due to the sequel advantage of brand WELCOME. The grand scale shown in the trailer (stuff shown from Dubai) might also help bring in the multiplex audience who want to see grandeur on screen to justify their high ticket price. The film will also open well at single screens/mass centres. The overall opening day collection will be similar to another John starrer SHOOTOUT AT WADALA (which was also a second part in a film instalment). Saturday will also see reasonable collections as there is a holiday in parts of India. Sunday is obviously a holiday (as usual). However, starting from Monday and from there on, WELCOME BACK will face a heavy drop in collections at the box office, as I feel that the WOM (Word of Mouth) will be negative (except for maybe in some few mass centres). The majority of the audience will reject John Abraham stepping into the shoes of Akshay Kumar as the lead, especially given the fact that John Abraham will not be able to impress the audience with comedy the way that Akshay Kumar is able to. The action sequences given to John will be of the same kind that has been seen from many actors in the past few years since the masala film wave re-started around the year 2009, and the audience will now be bored of it, especially the multiplex audience. The out-dated look and feel of the film will also face rejection from majority of the audience. Also, as is the case with most sequels, the audience rarely finds them to be as good as the first film, and it's very likely that the audience will not laugh and be entertained as much as they were by WELCOME.

The competition from films in the upcoming weeks (such as HERO next week) will further seal the sate of WELCOME BACK.

My Box Office Predictions for WELCOME BACK:

Opening Day: 9.5 crores net

Opening Weekend: 29 crores net

Lifetime Collections: 50+ crores net

Overall Box Office Verdict: Flop

Unfortunately, WELCOME BACK will not be welcomed back by the audience!

😆😃