Its not as if they were not following SOP at all..plus they did not have complete 100%lockdown. Shops were strictly closed at 5 pm so people did not rush to markets like when it opened in India. After cases went down they opened food delivery n malls. The malls have proper sop like checking fever..sanitiser n they turn away people over 50
Originally posted by: blue-ice.1
Testing ho rahi hai Pakistan men?
This seems to be the most likeliest explanation, there is a lack of testing going on in Pakistan, because if you look at confirmed cases per million, Pakistan is doing better than all European countries and the Americas. đ
Originally posted by: Heisenberg17_
This seems to be the most likeliest explanation, there is a lack of testing going on in Pakistan, because if you look at confirmed cases per million, Pakistan is doing better than all European countries and the Americas. đ
jab tak testing nahi hogi...it won't be classified as a corona case....India and Pakistan both are young countries in the sense that they have more young population...chances are that most people won't even know if they get corona if not tested.....1 week mein aise he they will get better......toh na testing hogi...na corona patients honge...đ
Originally posted by: blue-ice.1
What is the percentage of people ...that would be a better comparison.
India
Total test - 4,88,31,145
Total case - 41,97,563
% of case - 8.59
Pakistan
Total test - 27,57,709
Total case - 2,98,509
% of case - 10.82
Its more than 2% difference between positive cases from tests done from both countries. If pakistan increases its tests the difference will increase more as india's sample is huge in comparison of Pakistan.
So, did Pakistan really manage to flatten the curve or is there more to it than meets the eye?
Age demographics a factor?
Pakistan's median age is only 22 and the coronavirus is known to disproportionately impact older people with prior health complications, which can be one of the reasons that the South Asian nation has been able to control the pandemic.In comparison, Italy, with a median age of 46.5, has recorded more than 35,000 deaths, while Pakistan's official toll is about 6,300.A flattening curve is all the more curious considering how the coronavirus has hit India, which with a median age of 26 and crowded cities has a somewhat similar demographic.During the Covid-19 pandemic, the worst-hit countries have an average age of 35-45, so Pakistan median age being 22 could be a factor.
Is low testing behind low numbers?
Experts have said that testing and tracing have been the key factors in Pakistan. The government said the virus outbreak was controlled in the country due to "concrete measures" taken by the government through its trace, test and quarantine (TTQ) strategy.In the last week of August, Pakistanâs positive test rate â a key indicator as to whether there is adequate testing â was 2.09 per cent, well within the World Health Organizationâs 5 per cent threshold for indicating that a countryâs outbreak is presently under control, according to a report in Al-Jazeera.However, observers say that with only limited testing the true number of infections is likely considerably higher
Compared to neighbouring India, Pakistan falls way behind when it comes to testing its population. The above graph shows that while India has hit a record high of over 1 million tests per day, Pakistan has been averaging around 20,000+ daily tests since June.
Further, according to data from worldometers.info, India has tested over 4.6 crore people for Covid-19 so far with an average of 33,767 tests per million population while Pakistan has tested just over 27 lakh people with an average of 12,216 tests per million population. Speaking in terms of percentage, India has tested nearly 3.3% of its population and Pakistan has tested just over 1.2% of its total people.
Cases under-reported?
A seroprevalence study conducted in July in collaboration with WHO estimated that 11 per cent of Pakistanis have developed Covid-19 antibodies while 89 percent remain at risk. Similar sero studies in India have also indicated that the number of people infected by the disease could be much higher than what has been reported.
A report on Deutsche Welle quoted a government official from Punjab province who said that he had direct orders from his superior to omit numbers by almost half. This month he reported 34 new cases, instead of 63.
This is indicative of "willful misreporting" at the district level and raises concerns regarding the accuracy of the official figures. Misreporting, coupled with a decrease in testing, greatly skews the recorded prevalence of cases in the country, the report quoted experts as saying.
Fear of social stigma
One theory surrounding the low numbers suggests social stigma as a strong factor where people fear coming out openly about the virus which has led to many people not getting tested unless it is an extreme case.
According to a report in Deutsche Welle, "Given the total number of infections in the country, people are now more aware of Covid-19 symptoms and are not coming to hospitals unless they become severely ill."
DW quoted, Hina Shah [name changed], a doctor at PAF Hospital in Islamabad, saying, "Whole affected families are not coming to hospitals, there is some stigma attached but also many people choose to quarantine themselves," she added, underlining that the decline in numbers is also due to people opting not to go to hospitals and get tested.
Experts also said that people are scared of going to hospitals or getting tested for fear of being ostracized in case of infection.
While stigma around the disease exists in India as well, the central as well as state governments have taken several pro-active steps - from public awareness campaigns to free testing in certain rural areas - to tackle the challenge.
Another important factor, as observers have suggested, could be the almost negligent trend of pub culture in Pakistan, compared to the Western nations.
Fatality rate
Even though its overall case count is less, Pakistan's Covid-19 mortality rate stands at 2.1 per cent which is higher than that of India's 1.8 per cent.
In fact, India has seen a gradual decline in its fatality rate over the last few weeks while Pakistan's fatality rate seems to have remained consistently above 2 per cent for nearly two months.
Smart lockdowns did the trick?
The government of Prime Minister Imran Khan has been quick to bask in the progress of the Covid situation, crediting itself with "smart" lockdown policies and other measures.
Khan's government has opted for "smart lockdowns" as a way to curb the virus' spread while ensuring economic activity continues unperturbed.
Smart lockdown involves shutting down smaller regions in response to new outbreaks as opposed to bringing their entire country to a halt.
Planning minister Asad Umar said that the smart lockdown strategy had been helpful in reducing the spread of the infection. He said now the policy was to move towards âmicro smart lockdownsâ, which aimed to put under lock down only a small group of houses.
Hospitals see less Covid patients
While experts are not able to provide any particular reason for decline, anecdotal evidence from hospitals across Pakistan supports the downward trend.
While healthcare facilities were initially swamped, doctors across Pakistan told AFP they are now no longer seeing a coronavirus-related rush on emergency services.
"Regardless of the reasons, the good thing is the first wave of the virus is almost over in Pakistan," said Khizer Hayat, a doctor at Nishtar hospital in the central city of Multan.
"The situation is now under control and the number of coronavirus cases is dropping, the wards are emptying. It's hard to know why," he added.
Possibility of second wave?
Since recording its first case in late February and then imposing restrictions, Pakistani authorities have now lifted most of the country's remaining coronavirus restrictions after new cases dropped for several weeks.
Restaurants and parks have reopened while people have flocked to theatres, malls, and crowded back onto public transport. Schools and universities are set to reopen later in September.
Masks have become an increasingly rare sight, spurring warnings from experts for the public to remain vigilant over fears of a second wave.
"People think we have defeated Covid-19 but my belief is that the chances of the second wave are still there," warned Hassan Waseem, a microbiologist based in Pakistan.
However, other doctors suspect the country has experienced the peak of the pandemic.
"I would reluctantly say that there won't be a second wave in Pakistan. Most urban centres in Pakistan like Lahore and Karachi have already seen the worst when it comes to coronavirus," said Waheed Uz Zaman Tariq, head of the department of virology and infectious diseases at Chughtai Lab.
Success yes, but fight far from over
Even when the country has largely succeeded in controlling the pandemic, the fight is far from over. Several countries, including New Zealand, Australia and Veitnam, which declared themselves coronavirus-free, have witnessed new infections.
Health experts and the government authorities have been continuously warning against any kind of laxity regarding the coronavirus and have advised people to take measures including social distancing and wearing masks, among others.
The WHO has also maintained that the virus is not over yet and that it will go on for a long time.
Originally posted by: NezukoChan
covid mei bhi india pak
The TM clearly said its not about India-Pakistan and requested not to bring in that aspect into this. But clearly we cannot have an objective discussion/comparison as far as these two countries are involved.
Only second wave will tell...
Back in June there was so many people I knew directly that were infected... doctors who worked in hospitals had tales of patients overflowing in corona wards... since last two months hospitals are not as over burdened and many corona wards are closed :/
This is a weird and strange recovery....
I know people have their theories but i do think smart lockdowns worked (as much as I scoffed about them) most essential shops were open till 5 so there is no rush of people Annâs no hoardings and over stocking...
Masks were essential, people complied with social distancing (where I lived)
Areas with High infection rates were sealed. And anyone who was tested positive, govt officials were sent to their homes to test rest of the members...
I wouldnât put It past govt to hide the numbers to look better on paper... but as far as I can see on ground reality... things do look a lot better than they did in June... when there were so many people getting sick...
As far as usa is compared... people and politicians are acting worse than third world countries... I have business ties there and people in India Pak have actually followed the SOPs better than many US states đ
But I donât think the danger is over even for countries who have managed to flatten the curve as colleges and marriage halls are opening this month... add flu season to that... i donât think anyone, even the ones who have miraculously managed to beat the first wave, are safe yet
| topics | author | replies | views | reply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FireFli | 25 | 1649 | ||
| Summon.All | 10 | 1266 |
comment:
p_commentcount