Is Pakistan serious about the arrests?

NPR.org, December 12, 2008 Security officials in Pakistan say they have arrested more than 20 militants who are part of groups linked to the commando attacks that killed more than 170 people in Mumbai, India. It is not clear whether the arrests will placate India, which has accused Pakistan of offering a safe haven to terrorist groups.

The latest to be detained is Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, the leader of a group that the United Nations Security Council has just designated as a terrorist group. Saeed has been placed under house arrest at his home in Lahore, Pakistan.

Others arrested include senior members of Lashkar-e-Taiba, or LeT, a group suspected of organizing the Mumbai attacks. But analysts say the arrests may be little more than a gesture to ease pressure from the United States and other nations.

Pakistani officials said they arrested about a dozen men at a Lashkar-e-Taiba training camp in Pakistani Kashmir. Those detained included Zaki ur-Rehman Lakhvi, named by India as a possible planner of the attacks.

Pakistani officials have not produced any of the arrestees. They have said that the suspects would be tried in Pakistan if charges were brought against them and that they wouldn't hand any Pakistani citizens over to Indian authorities.

Some Key Arrests

Christine Fair, a senior analyst with the Rand Corp., says three of the LeT members arrested are important figures, especially Lakhvi, who is considered the group's operations commander in Kashmir.

"But these are replaceable guys," she said, in an interview earlier this week. "The real story is who they didn't arrest."

Fair was referring to Saeed, who was not arrested until several days after the initial raids. Saeed is known as a fiery orator who frequently denounces the United States, India and Jews in widely circulated speeches. Saeed helped start LeT in 1990, allegedly with the help of officers from Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence agency, or ISI, who used LeT as a surrogate in the struggles with India over Kashmir.

Fair says she thinks Pakistan only arrested Saeed in response to a U.N. Security Council resolution on Dec. 10, designating Jama'at-ud-Da'wa as a terrorist group. She said she'll remain skeptical until she sees whether Pakistan will actually bring Saeed to court and charge him. Fair also notes that Jama'at-ud-Da'wa only came into being in 2002, after Pakistan banned Lashkar-e-Taiba. She says it remains to be seen whether Jama'at-ud-Da'wa will now reconstitute itself under some other name.

Marvin Weinbaum, a scholar at the Middle East Institute, agrees that Saeed is a key figure but says it would be difficult to prosecute him in the Mumbai case because he is unlikely to have been one of the operational figures. Saeed has to keep some distance, Weinbaum says, because he serves a better purpose as the public face of Jama'at-ud-Da'wa, which describes itself as a charitable group and raises millions of dollars in private funding for its schools, mosques and humanitarian efforts.

"What we're seeing now," says Weinbaum, "is [Pakistan's] familiar pattern of giving up just enough to satisfy international pressure, but not too much."

He notes that the Pakistani government arrested Saeed in August 2006 because of alleged involvement in the bombings of the Mumbai train system, a series of attacks that killed more than 200 people just the month before. Saeed was detained until mid-October of that year, but finally released for lack of evidence.

This time around, Pakistan has arrested Saeed, Lakhvi, and Massoud Azhar, a Muslim cleric and the leader of another militant group called The Army of Muhammad.

"That's meant to satisfy the Indians," says Weinbaum, who points out that Azhar was freed from an Indian jail in 2002, after militants hijacked an Indian jetliner and traded the hostages for his release. The latest arrest is "the kind of gesture they can make at this moment," Weinbaum adds. "They always let these people go in 60 or 90 days because they're never able to bring charges."

Fair of the Rand Corp. says the Pakistani government can always claim it is impossible to prosecute the militants using information from intelligence channels because to do so would reveal sources and means of gathering information.

Disturbing Possibilities

Fair says the alleged participation of Lashkar-e-Taiba in the Mumbai attacks raises some disturbing possibilities.

"Lashkar-e-Taiba has been different from the other militant groups operating in Pakistan," she says, "because it remained close to the ISI and didn't take part in attacks against the Pakistani state."

One extreme possibility, Fair says, is that Lashkar-e-Taiba may have launched the Mumbai attacks in connivance with Pakistan's military in an effort to provoke a crisis between India and Pakistan. Fair says that could draw Pakistani troops away from the border with Afghanistan, where they have been fighting Pakistani militants, an effort that is not popular with the Pakistani public. The move could restore the army to its popular role of protecting Pakistan from India.

Another possibility, Fair says, is that LeT has gotten strong enough to shake off Pakistani government strings and act on its own.

"If so," she says, "this is a truly terrifying development, because of all the South Asian terror groups, this is by far the most competent."

Fair notes that LeT's strength has reportedly grown with the help of private money from Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf states.

Weinbaum of the Middle East Institute says Lashkar-e-Taiba is a real problem for Pakistan's military, which doesn't want to destroy the group, because it might still be of use against India in Kashmir. As to Pakistan's civilian government, he says "I think they have reason to think twice before they take on Lashkar-e-Taiba. This is a weak government, after all. If they don't have public support, there's not much they can do."

Voicing skepticism over Pakistan acting decisively against terrorists operating from its soil, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said such elements have been "let off" in the past after some initial action.

"Therefore we shall have to see whether these (actions by Pakistan) are taken to their logical conclusion," he said, asking Islamabad to ensure that the terror infrastructure is dismantled completely.

Reacting to Islamabad's demand for evidence of the involvement of the Pakistan-based elements in the Mumbai attacks, Mukherjee said India was ready to do so but not at this juncture when investigations were yet to be concluded.

"We can make available whatever evidences we have. In this case, we are also investigating, we have not come to any conclusion. Therefore at this juncture, perhaps, it would be premature to share the evidences," Mukherjee said during an interview.

He refused to comment on the current crackdown on terror groups in Pakistan, while noting that similar actions took place in the aftermath of the attack on Parliament in 2001.

"Almost similar actions were taken at the initial stage when the international pressure was mounted. After that it was let off," he said, adding that he was "waiting to see" that these steps are pursued seriously.

"I am waiting to see the infrastructure facilities available to terrorists are totally dismantled and the outlawed and banned organisations do not reappear in their new name with the new signboards but with the same old faces."

His remarks follow Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's statement in Parliament on Thursday that the international community has to be galvanised into "dealing sternly and effectively with the epicentre of terrorism, which is located in Pakistan."

Mukherjee said the "non-state actors" Pakistan has been referring to as behind the terror attacks "live and function" within the territory of that country.

"That is why, repeatedly, I said elements from Pakistan. That is a phrase I have used meticulously. I would not like to be more specific unless definitive conclusion is arrived at by the investigating agencies," he said.

The Minister's comments come amid a crackdown launched by Pakistan against the Jamaat-ud Dawa, the front organisation of Lashkar-e Toiba (LeT) blamed for the Mumbai attacks, after the
UN Security Council designated the outfit as a terrorist group.

Mukherjee noted that in response to the demarche issued by India, Pakistan said it was considering "various aspects" on action to be taken and planning to send a high-level delegation here.

In the demarche, he said he has sought action against two categories of persons -- those who have committed crime in India and have taken shelter in Pakistan, and Pakistani citizens indulging in terrorist activities in India.

"Some people who have committed crime in India and have taken shelter in Pakistan like Dawood Ibrahim. We are asking the Pakistan authorities to hand him over to Indian authorities so that he can be tried as per Indian laws here.

"There are persons who are Pakistan citizens, who are indulging in terrorist activities in India. Let them be arrested and tried as per Pakistan law," Mukherjee said.

The Minister said he did not understand the difficulty Pakistan has in handing over Masood Azhar to India. "He was in Indian custody. We had to hand over him to hijackers of the Indian plane in Kandahar. He is available in Pakistan. He is seen on television screens in Pakistan. I do not know what difficulty Pakistan has (in handing him over)."

"Pakistan government did not demand his (Azhar's) return. Hijackers had demanded that you release him. (If) Pakistan government cannot hand him over to us what is the point in keeping him under house arrest," Mukherjee asked.

On whether Pakistan has sought consular access to Ajmal Amir Iman, the lone surviving terrorist arrested during the Mumbai attacks, he said India has not received any official request.

"To my knowledge it has not reached me. I do not know whether it has reached to the lower level. I will find it out," Mukherjee said.

"Are they saying the man is a Pakistani citizen. I do not know. Have they claimed the dead bodies, I do not know," he said, pointing out that "everything is appearing in the media."

Mukherjee asserted that the government will take all steps to protect the territorial integrity of the country but ruled out war as a solution to the problem.

Asked on how long would India wait, he said "it depends on how fast, how quickly Pakistan responds or whether they respond at all or not. Therefore it will not be possible for me to indicate any time frame right now."

On the Joint Anti-Terror Mechanism, Mukherjee said four meetings had taken place since its establishment but "nothing has been produced."

Asked whether the mechanisms have failed, he said "I do not want to come to any conclusion. But I think, whatever they have committed, whatever they are to do let them do it first."