What do Australia need to do to avoid elimination from the T20 World Cup?
Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, Australia and Ireland are all in contention to qualify for the Super Eights from Group B in the T20 World Cup
Australia 'rattled' by seam, not spin in Colombo
Zimbabwe's victory against Australia has thrown open Group B, as four teams have a chance of qualifying for the Super Eights of the 2026 T20 World Cup. Here's what each team needs to finish in the top two.
Australia
Played: 2, Points: 2, NRR: 1.100
Remaining matches: vs SL, Oman
Australia's 23-run defeat to Zimbabwe means they are in danger of elimination. Even if they win their two remaining matches, it will come down to net run rate if Sri Lanka beat Zimbabwe, and Zimbabwe beat Ireland. In that case, Australia, Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe will end up on six points, with Ireland on two.
For Australia to be certain of qualification on six points, they are dependent on other results: Sri Lanka should lose to Zimbabwe, or Zimbabwe should lose to Ireland. In either of those cases only one team other than Australia will finish on six points.
Australia won't be eliminated even if they lose to Sri Lanka on Monday, but their qualification will be tenuous: for them to have any chance with four points (assuming they beat Oman), Zimbabwe must lose both their remaining matches, to Ireland and Sri Lanka. That will leave Sri Lanka on eight points, and Australia, Zimbabwe, and Ireland fighting for the second spot with four points.
Sri Lanka
Played: 2, Points: 4, NRR: 3.125
Remaining matches: vs Aus, Zim
A win against Australia will guarantee qualification. Even if they lose, Sri Lanka will make the Super Eights if they beat Zimbabwe, and if Zimbabwe lose to Ireland or Australia lose to Oman. If neither of those results happen, there will be a three-way tie on six points.
If Sri Lanka lose both matches then Zimbabwe will qualify, and Australia will have to lose to Oman for Sri Lanka to have any chance of taking the second spot in the group with four points.
Zimbabwe
Played: 2, Points: 4, NRR: 1.984
Remaining matches: vs Ire, SL
A win against Sri Lanka on Thursday will ensure qualification, but a defeat to Sri Lanka and a win against Ireland could lead to a three-way tie on six points, with Sri Lanka and Australia.
If Zimbabwe lose both matches, they only have a chance if Australia win no more than one of their two remaining matches.
Ireland
Played: 3, Points: 2, NRR: 0.150
Remaining match: vs Zim
Ireland have a slender chance if they beat Zimbabwe and finish on four points, and if only one of the other teams finish on more than four. That can happen, for example, if Sri Lanka win their two remaining matches and finish on eight. Then, Australia will finish on four if they beat Oman, resulting in a three-way points tie with Ireland and Zimbabwe.
If Zimbabwe beat Sri Lanka then the three-way tie can only happen in the unlikely event of Australia losing to Oman. If Australia win their last two matches then Ireland will be out; one of Sri Lanka or Zimbabwe will also finish on six as they play each other.
I spiritual_ Rain predicted that all others ( Ind & Wi Through to super 8) Aus/ Eng / SAfrica/pak/Nz & one surprize team will make it to super 8.... could be SL or zimbabwe
Resources :ESPNcricinfo
Credit to s. Rajesh of Cricinfo
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