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KUCH KUCH HOTA HAI. KABHI KHUSHI KABHI GHAM. KABHI ALVIDA NA KEHNA. MY NAME IS KHAN. STUDENT OF THE YEAR.
The first two films in that list are widely regarded as classics, were Blockbusters at the box office (KKHH is one of Bollywood's All Time Blockbusters), and are still hugely popular on television today. The third film in the list is one where you say, "love it or hate it, you can't ignore it" and is one of the most discussed, controversial films in recent times. The fourth film is one that was hugely appreciated overseas (huge Blockbuster) and considered to be a great film by many. The fifth (and last) film in the list gave birth to three of Bollywood's current top stars amongst the younger actors in Varun Dhawan, Siddharth Malhotra, and Alia Bhatt.
5 films. 100% box office success ratio. That sums up Karan Johar's 18-year career so far as a director!
AE DIL HAI MUSHKIL marks the return of Karan Johar as a director after four years. More importantly, it marks Karan Johar's second Diwali release as a director in his career after KUCH KUCH HOTA HAI, 18 years ago!
The teaser of AE DIL HAI MUSHKIL was released at the ending of August and received a fantastic response, with over 21 million views and over 119k likes as I write this. The chartbuster title track playing in the background, the intense vibe, Ranbir's dialogue about one-sided love...everything clicked in a big way. As a matter of fact, the initial promos (especially the title song promo that came out later) all worked like a slow magical poison, leaving you wanting more.
Unfortunately, that changed with the poor theatrical trailer. From being presented as an intense, emotional, dramatic love story, the theatrical trailer gave off a rom-com vibe with a light feel. Ranbir Kapoor was suddenly seen sitting like a geek wearing glasses spouting some nonsense dialogues, with the annoying Cutie Pie song in the background. The scene with Ranbir showing the middle finger to Anushka at a wedding also came across a bit weird and wanna-beish. The only bright side with the theatrical trailer was that the light mood presented is more in sync with a festival Diwali release, where the audience (families particularly) want to be entertained rather than depressed watching a serious, heavy film.
Fortunately, things changed around for the better with the Channa Mereya song promo, which gave a magical vibe and reminds one of Kabira Encore version from YEH JAWAANI HAI DEEWANI. Ranbir's dialogue about one-sided love was once again used and the promo once again gave a more emotional vibe to the film. This song promo is what once again re-inforced my opinion on this film becoming a box office hit!
Everyone knows about the songs already! The songs of the film are huge chartbusters, with the title track and Bulleya ruling charts and Channa Mereya and The Breakup Song on their way to rule charts (such as Ormax) as well. The songs have played an instrumental role in creating huge hype for this film.
Now, about another important matter: the clash. AE DIL HAI MUSHKIL vs SHIVAAY. Things took a nasty turn when Ajay Devgan tried to expose Karan Johar for bribing Kamaal R Khan to favour ADHM over SHIVAAY. That fell flat on Ajay Devgan's face though as KRK denied it and no evidence was found. Realistically, why would Karan Johar pay Kamaal R Khan of all people to promote his film? The difference in the popularity/recognition between the two is HUGE.
The MNS in Maharashtra has also been at Karan Johar's throat over having Pakistan actor Fawad Khan in his film, but the matter has been solved with some conditions allowing ADHM's release. It's been a tough time for Karan with Ajay Devgan attacking him and then MNS, both situations where he had no fault, but he has smartly remained quiet for the majority of these situations. As a matter of fact, the controversies have only raised even more awareness for ADHM which is definitely a good thing.
ADHM will get a huge opening at urban centres/multiplexes because of the hype the film has generated with Karan Johar as director, Ranbir/Anushka/Aishwariya Rai starcast, and the chartbusting songs. The opening at smaller centers/single screens will be on the lower side as this is more of an urban film, and also because that section of the audience will prefer to watch Ajay Devgan's SHIVAAY instead. The opening of ADHM will likely be best in North India, where it will likely get a very strong opening. I feel that the All-India opening day collection will be better than Ranbir Kapoor's last film TAMASHA, but lower than YEH JAWAANI HAI DEEWANI as that film had a solo release, it had it's two main leads coming after big box office successes, among other factors. I feel that ADHM can open anywhere from 13-18 crores, so I will go with the middle number between them, approx 15 crores. The opening weekend collection will see ADHM not perform to it's potential due to the clash and the pre-Diwali period, but Monday will be the biggest holiday of the year where the film will definitely benefit.
I expect the Word-of-Mouth (WOM) for ADHM to range from mixed to positive. Families generally enjoy Karan Johar films, but this film does have steamy scenes/dialogues which can turn off the families. This film will mostly appeal to the urban youth, and I'm sure that they will like this film. The performances by the three main leads (Ranbir/Anushka/Aishwarya), the dialogues, the classy direction style, the songs, the package of emotions (romance/humor/emotion/drama) will all be appreciated by the class audience, particularly the urban youth. The audience at smaller centres will reject this film, as it is an urban film. Karan's last two films (MY NAME IS KHAN and STUDENT OF THE YEAR) showed a good trend after their opening day (India) but the fact remains that all three of his last films (including KANK) have just about reached the Hit mark in India. He hasn't been able to give a Blockbuster since K3G and I feel it is because he has alienated the single screen/masses from his films, as he now makes films that appeal to the multiplex/class audience. I've always felt that ADHM will see a similar trend to JTHJ of a 15 crore opening and approx 120 crore lifetime, especially when the ADHM teaser itself created a similar poetic, intense, romantic drama vibe as JTHJ (which also starred Anushka). I do feel that the lifetime collection will be higher than JTHJ though.
The issue with Pakistan and Fawad Khan will make some decide not to watch this film, and create anger within those watching the film when they see Fawad Khan on screen. As a matter of fact, I read a report that in North India, when the trailer of this film was shown at a theatre, Ranbir's on-screen appearance was met with a positive reception from the audience whereas Fawad's appearance was met with gaalis. However, Fawad Khan has a short role in the film, and it shouldn't have much of a negative impact on the film, if any impact at all.
In regards to the clash, I feel that ADHM will defeat SHIVAAY not only in terms of opening, but also in terms of lifetime collections. ADHM has more buzz than SHIVAAY largely due to the chartbuster songs and the controversies surrounding ADHM, which has only added to the film's awareness. ADHM has more of an entertaining and energetic vibe to it than SHIVAAY, which looks like a dark, depressing, and sleepy type film in comparison. The Bulleya song promo alone has more energy than almost everything (promos) presented so far from SHIVAAY makers. More importantly, Karan Johar's capability as a director is far more trustworthy than Ajay Devgan as a director who has only directed one film till date (U ME AUR HUM) which was a box office flop.
ADHM is looking to be Ranbir Kapoor's much needed Hit after four back-to-back flops (BESHARAM, ROY, BOMBAY VELVET, TAMASHA). It will be his first box office success since YEH JAWAANI HAI DEEWANI released in 2013. For Karan Johar, it will be sixth box office success, keeping his 100% success ratio intact as one of the biggest directors in Bollywood!
My Box Office Predictions for AE DIL HAI MUSHKIL:
Opening Day: 15 crores net
Opening 3-Day Weekend: 45-50 crores net
Lifetime Collections: 135 crores net
Overall Box Office Verdict: Hit
UPDATE (I wrote this update on Saturday, October 29, 2016): The first day collection of ADHM is 13 crores net. The film is carrying mixed WOM. Jab Tak Hai Jaan (Diwali 2012) also had a mixed WOM and multiplied it's opening day (15 crores net) by approximately 8, and I feel that ADHM will follow a similar trend with 13 (opening day) x 8 = 104 crores net lifetime collections (approximately), which will give the film "Average" verdict (according to what trade analyst Rohit Jaiswal posted weeks ago on Twitter on how much the film needs to earn for different verdicts).
Ye Hai Mohabbatein
Anupamaa
Dr Aarambhi
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