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charminggenie

@charminggenie

Stunner

+ 2

Posted: 9 years ago

#341

K- I am just quoting and referencing from what the experts are talking about German and GCC, in general . They make a good case about asylum workers and refugees being one of the elements for this trade off. Because honestly it makes no sense to me to see Germany being benevolent and taking in refugees, bullying EU to do so without gaining anything . It has during this time made great trade deals with GCC and political alliances . Like any other usual, FP observer, I merely present a reason why Germany would go against popular narration and risk so much for a problem that doesn't seem to be related to them.

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charminggenie

@charminggenie

Stunner

+ 2

Posted: 9 years ago

#342

Originally posted by: K.Universe.

Gains lie where?
GCC

You are making a case for a pie in the sky. We don't even know how many asylum seekers had their applications granted, what kind of skills they bring, what kind of skills Germany needs, what is the public debt thanks to the millions pouring in, what kind of a boost these millions would purportedly give to their GDP, whether they will even make enough to pay taxes...
I am not even talking about the tangible gains the unskilled workers bring ..I am talking about the economic gain Germany gets from controlling a situation in GCC and taking in refugees.
My gain, like I quoted earlier was their trade influx with Iraq, Iran, GCC which has gained a lot since they started meddling in the region.

As of today, there is no data to support that this current wave of immigrants / asylum seekers have done anything "good". If you are basing your projections of "gains" based on some past immigrant data, that's another thing.
K, the numbers and the data I posted earlier was about Germany gaining better trading deals in the past 2-3 years. There is the gain.

Here is a study though done to show that the migrants coming in might benefit Germany in the long run. Again, these are the studies done..I am merely quoting them

In line with this thinking, a recent study of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), a think tank in Berlin, finds that the net impact of refugee inflows on the German economy will be positive in any case, with benefits outweighing costs for the economy already after five to ten years. The study concludes that the question is when, not whether, refugees will prove to be a long-term gain for the German economy. The blessing, they claim, is assured in any case.[2] The European Commission also takes a carefully optimistic view, with their European Economic Forecast stating that refugees' impact on Germany's economy by 2020 will likely be small, in the order of 0.2-0.3 percent of GDP, but positive even if most of them turn out to be low-skilled.

Such affirmative views are supported by survey findings of the UN Refugee Agency UNHCR that nearly nine out of ten Syrians arriving in Greece report high levels of education, with 43 percent holding a university degree, and another 43 percent a high school diploma.[3] Nearly eight out of ten surveyed Syrians (78 percent) were under 35, and half of them said they wanted to go to Germany, citing employment and educational opportunities among their reasons.[4]

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charminggenie

@charminggenie

Stunner

+ 2

Posted: 9 years ago

#343

K, This study too reflects that migrants are not a burden economically..again, I am just a medium , trying to find a reason here.

http://www.worldfinance.com/infrastructure-investment/government-policy/refugees-are-an-economic-benefit-not-burden-to-europe

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21579482-new-study-shows-fiscal-impact-migration-broadly-neutral-boon-or

http://blog.zeit.de/herdentrieb/2015/09/10/wie-viele-fluechtlinge-koennen-wir-uns-leisten_8840

^^Germany's prominent economic study think takes all think of this refugee flux as a boon or at max , neutral stand.

Almost all EU based financial studies don't really see this as an economic problem.

http://wwwds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/04/28/090224b082e14021/1_0/Rendered/PDF/The0impact0of00ct0on0Lebanese0trade.pdf

^^^ World Bank on it's study of immigrants contributin to the GDP.

Interesting, every study possible has since 2014 were predicting Germany taking in immigrants, none of the economic think tanks are worried but it's the polity that worries for Germany and such attacks.

Hamburg Institute of Economics went pretty deep on their argument in favour of migrants. Interestingly they have been repeatedly asking for more asylum refugees since 2004 . Germany's own labour projection reports support the idea.

OECD also refuted refugees being a burden overall and actually considered them an asset.

Edited by charminggenie - 9 years ago

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souro

@souro

Alumni

+ 2

Posted: 9 years ago

#344

Originally posted by: charminggenie
Such affirmative views are supported by survey findings of the UN Refugee Agency UNHCR that nearly nine out of ten Syrians arriving in Greece report high levels of education, with 43 percent holding a university degree, and another 43 percent a high school diploma.[3] Nearly eight out of ten surveyed Syrians (78 percent) were under 35, and half of them said they wanted to go to Germany, citing employment and educational opportunities among their reasons.[4]

I had read an article which said many of the Syrian refugees are highly skilled and had good jobs back home. Some were doctors, lawyers, judges, etc. But here is where I'm sceptical. Yes they are skilled and their skills were valuable in Syria, but is it equally valuable for Germany? A lawyer or a judge are practically useless outside of their country unless they are practising international law. Doctors will have to undertake further studies and certification to be eligible to practice in a different country, but do these refugees have the means to finance studies in Germany, I doubt. So either the German govt. will have to waive off their fees or will have to change the law allowing them to practice medicine without further requirement for certification. When they say university degree, what sort of university degree? If they studied Islamic hisotry, Arabic literature or some such thing, I doubt they are going to find any suitable employment in Germany. If they studied commerce and is an expert in Syrian taxation laws, that's not going to help them in Germany. If they were teachers, they will need to get further training, certification and learn German language to be fit for employment as teacher again in Germany. If they have studied some general science subject can they hope to be gainfully employed in Germany without knowledge of German language? How much time and money is the German govt. willing to spend to make them learn the local language and get them necessary certification to make them eligible to work as doctors, nurses, lawyers, tax consultants, teachers, etc. and why should they anyways?

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charminggenie

@charminggenie

Stunner

+ 2

Posted: 9 years ago

#345

Souro, I understand your concerns but Germany has a pretty neat system of filtering refugees according to it's needs . UN Refugee Angency's data is pretty effective when it comes to show the numbers and what type of refugees Germany is taking. Again, no system is perfect and ofcourse few bad apples will come through.But overall, the Immiration Office, Labour offices have many systems for flitering out the refugees.

Before, I again, reflect on the economic benefits angle. I would like to clarify a point about political motivation.

- Suspension of Dublin Rule

Dublin Rule was made by Germany , according to which a memember State of EU could reject refugees coming from 3rd country which are Greece, Italy etc which is how refugees used to come to Germany. It used to refuse processing applications from refugees present in safe EU 3rd States , essentially blocking immigrants.It also wanted to block a quota system for EU where member countries would have to fairly distribute across every EU state. So what changed?

In 2011, European Court of Justice ruled in favour of 3rd safe states which meant rules are not applicable for countries of 3rd state due to legal reasons therefore refugees who arrived in Germany through these countries could file for assimilation in Germany .Consequently the rule was suspended by Germany, hence there is an influx of refugees towards Germany, this made Germany push for quota system which meant EU have to take certain number of refugees or face actions. This gave Germany the power to filter out and control the entire immigration crisis.

Merkel is pretty smart to ensure that 3rd States and EU also share the burden and it's not her country which is facing the stress , she also is ensuring filtered immigration.

Moral Obligation- Good PR for Germany.It has pushed Germany to the forefronts of World Politics without waging a war. As the one of the few economies which thrived after the 2008 crisis , it also notes it's need for labour and aging working population.Since 2004, the projections showed Germany needed manforce, their industries were asking for it , hence you see support from Auto industries and other plants. Above mentioned studies show a 10 year plan for assimilation and a 20year plan where this refugee influx would help Germany. I don't thin these studies are naive but then I am not much well-versed in Macro economics, hence I take these studies at face value.

For the past 5 years Germany has been amending it's labour laws and trying to appease to skilled workers.

It's an investment , they are sure to bring fruit as OPED projected only 7% of European population might contribute to Globalization in the net 20 years.

Apart from gaining a strong influence over GCC, which is not a bad thing at all.

Challenges

Lone Wolf attacks- It's a problem and new form of terrorism .

Infrastructure and assimilation- I think, initial hiccups are expected but a fair study would be after 4-5 years to see how well this has gone.

Do, i see an alternative, sadly none. Merkel know she can afford to invest now and she seems to make sure all EU share the burden and it's not just her country. Just see how she has steered the country economically over the years and politically.

Edited by charminggenie - 9 years ago

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Arwen11

@Arwen11

Sparkler

+ 4

Posted: 9 years ago

#346

I think the refugees coming into Germany are more likely to assimilate than not.. And i dont mean throwing away their burqas or whatever... that wont happen 😆
But you can become a part of the whole without throwing away your cultural identity...the former lawyers and judges and teachers are more likely to do that then the barely went to school, unskilled laborers from Pakistan that seem to be everywhere here in GCC and Saudi Arab..

I think even in Europe and North America, the educated ones tend to assimilate..not culturally but mentally they ll be on the same wave lenght

Edited by Arwen. - 9 years ago

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charminggenie

@charminggenie

Stunner

+ 2

Posted: 9 years ago

#347

Originally posted by: Arwen.
I think the refugees coming into Germany are more likely to assimilate than not.. And i dont mean throwing away their burqas or whatever... that wont happen 😆
But you can become a part of the whole without throwing away your cultural identity...the former lawyers and judges and teachers are more likely to do that then the barely went to school, unskilled laborers from Pakistan that seem to be everywhere here in GCC and Saudi Arab..

I think even in Europe and North America, the educated ones tend to assimilate..not culturally but mentally they ll be on the same wave lenght

I think the problem is not them willing to assimilate but the large numbers and the initial hiccups , some countries are ill equipped to handle them immediately , you need a strong system to do so. Inspite of that it's a long process of 5 to 10 years for anyone to talk about economical, social or cultural impact. Right now , security wise the challenges are different. How to monitor and preserve free borders and deal with internet radicalization .

Germany has had 1million Iranians and GCC natives as refugees in 1960s and they have contributed a lot to the country, well assimilated too.

It's the lone wolf attacks which make the perception seem differently and for which I don't think there is a solution. This last night attack, the teen identifies himself as German and confessed to killing coz of bulling and was telling his classmates since years that he is going to kill. This guy was born and brought up in Germany but the impression that would go be , "refugee problem".

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souro

@souro

Alumni

+ 2

Posted: 9 years ago

#348

Originally posted by: Arwen.
I think the refugees coming into Germany are more likely to assimilate than not.. And i dont mean throwing away their burqas or whatever... that wont happen 😆
But you can become a part of the whole without throwing away your cultural identity...the former lawyers and judges and teachers are more likely to do that then the barely went to school, unskilled laborers from Pakistan that seem to be everywhere here in GCC and Saudi Arab..

I think even in Europe and North America, the educated ones tend to assimilate..not culturally but mentally they ll be on the same wave lenght

I agree that lawyers judges and teachers will assimilate quicker in a new culture. But only if, and that's a very big if, they become lawyers, judges and teachers in the new place. They will have to start from scratch, their skill and experience not counting for much in the new place. This goes for most professions and will only exclude those professions where the person doesn't have to deal with local people/ clients and their requirments extensively and works in an industry where the skill requirement is uniform universally, essentially we are talking about either unskilled jobs or extremely high skilled jobs where the person works in a laboratory kind of environment.

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@K.Universe.

Voyager

Posted: 9 years ago

#349

Genie, you know I like you but I think you indulge in a lot of proof by verbosity

I too have read a lot of the articles you are posting; my understanding of the articles is that the experts are only opining along the lines of "every cloud has a silver lining".

Right now, the benefits, if any, are on paper. And the paper has a lot of fine print at the end of it.

But congrats in packaging and gift wrapping what is perceived as an extremely bad situation into a "potentially good situation". Not an easy task.

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charminggenie

@charminggenie

Stunner

+ 2

Posted: 9 years ago

#350

Haha, I mentioned to Souro that I take these findings at face-value because these are mere speculations which is what I feel about most of Macro Economics at times ,with their projections .

I don't consider myself an expert or understand what these policy makers do but I am very curious to know why will germany gamble this way with their economy, social structure and what does it gain?

Ofcourse it should have some political ,economical reasoning or report to support it. Even if we speculate it to be all made up by Govt.

At this point we can anticipate and frown but to accurately assess this we need to give it 3-5 years atleast to visit it from all quarters.

But yes, i do hope this shouldn't turn on Germany , not good for many asylum seekers world wide.

Is there anything else to do about this but to speculate, anticipate and predict?