Posted:
Okay, I think enough has been spoken about the clash, including from myself as I wrote ALOT in my prediction thread of DILWALE đ Sooo let's get down to business quick!
BAJIRAO MASTANI is a HUGE film, no doubt. The combination of Sanjay Leela Bhansali-Ranveer Singh-Deepika Padkuone return together after giving the 100 crore Hit RAM LEELA back in 2013. This time, Priyanka Chopra is there joining the team! The film has been made on a huge scale and really gives that grand feel of a historical drama.
After watching the Deewani Mastani song, I really started thinking in my brain that if this film released solo without a clash during this Christmas release period, the film could've collected lifetime collections of around 180 crores or so. With the excellent response that the second theatrical trailer received, it makes me think that this film could've done even 200 crores as lifetime collections!
Sanjay Leela Bhansali's efforts and hard work while making this film is clear, and that's why probably why he has the confidence to clash again with SRK despite getting destroyed by him in Diwali 2007 when his SAAWARIYA bombed in front of SRK's Blockbuster OM SHANTI OM.
The promos of BAJIRAO MASTANI have received a strong response from viewers, and the fact that film has two of the top leading female stars (Deepika and Priyanka) gives a vibe of one of Bhansali's most popular films, DEVDAS (especially the Pinga song).
Given the clash and the huge investment, BAJIRAO MASTANI won't be a huge box office success, but given the response by the viewers and the early feedback for the film which suggests that it is a masterpiece, the film looks set to sweep the awards during award season! The film will find itself as a strong candidate in the Best Film, Director, Actor, Actress, and other categories as well.
The film will lose the box office battle against DILWALE, no doubt, but I do feel that this film will reach the 100 crore mark. If we look at the JTHJ-SOS battle, SOS did around the same time lifetime business that Ajay's other films normally did at the time anyway (such as BOL BACHCHAN, SINGHAM, etc). The clash negative was cancelled out by the benefit of Diwali period. Similarly, RAM LEELA did approx. 116 crore lifetime collections in dull November period, and that too 2 years ago, so now 2 years later and with clash negative being cancelled out by benefit of Christmas period, I feel that BAJIRAO MASTANI will do a similar lifetime collections as RAM LEELA, a bit higher than RAM LEELA actually.
I strongly believe that on a solo release date, even with non-holiday, BAJIRAO MASTANI would've had opening day collection in the region of 20 crores. With the clash, cutting the collection in half, I feel that the film will collect around 10-11 crores (Hindi version), with an added 2 crores or so from the dubbed versions.
The film will have excellent public WOM from a section of the audience, especially the audience living in Maharashtra region and the class/multiplex audience in India in general. Single screen audience may find this type of film boring/unappealing, but there are some things in the film to attract them (dialogues, the song/dance sequences, action, the acting/looks/styles of Ranveer/Deepika/Priyanka, etc).
My Box Office Predictions for BAJIRAO MASTANI (all 3 language versions included of Hindi, Tamil, and Telegu):
Opening Day: 13 crores net
Opening Weekend: 45+ crores net
Lifetime Collections: 120 crores net
Overall Box Office Verdict: Semi Hit
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