I'm not interested in the numbers, but I like your reasoning.
If Kartik's movie becomes a flop then - hopefully - a positive outcome for the Hindi filmindustry will be the (long overdue) decision to make more original content then unnecessary remakes.
If certain people (behind the scenes) need quick movies to 'wash' their black money then they should at least not try to damage hard working people and the industry's reputation.
Very little chance for success. The film is facing too many drawbacks at this point of time!