Agnew's World Cup verdict
India
I would not be at all surprised if India, beaten finalists four years ago, actually won the World Cup this time around.
If I was a betting man I would back both them and Australia.
If you look through the India squad, you ask yourself 'How can they fail to do well?' There are some terrific players there.
They have three attacking top-order batsmen in Virender Sehwag, Sourav Ganguly and Robin Uthappa, who can all hit over the top.
Of them, the interesting one is Ganguly, someone with a wonderful World Cup pedigree but who was dropped from the one-day side for a while.
He did not see eye-to-eye with coach Greg Chappell initially, and the Australian had to swallow a bit of pride when the selectors picked Ganguly again.
But the former captain was determined to get back and he's repaid the faith shown in him.
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INDIA: SEEDED 8
India were surprise winners of the 1983 World Cup
Their best performance since then was reaching the 2003 final in Johannesburg |
It's not just about early runs for India. Rahul Dravid and Sachin Tendulkar are the most experienced middle order pair there has ever been.
They have scored nearly 25,000 runs between them at an average of about 42.
Tendulkar's move to the middle order has been a good strategy. He will be even harder to dislodge now.
The Indian batting order goes down all the way, to the fantastic left-handed talents of Yuvraj Singh and the dashing Mahendra Dhoni, who is a bit of a maniac sometimes.
There is experience, again, in the shape of the two spinners Harbhajan Singh and Anil Kumble.
No other major teams will play two specialist spinners but you imagine they will both bowl well in the Caribbean.
Then there are the seamers, starting with young Shanthakumaran Sreesantch, a very talented bowler who can really swing the ball, old or new.
Ajit Agarkar knows all about one-day cricket, and Zaheer Khan is back in the side and bowling well after a wonderful season at Worcestershire.
There will be a lot of very disappointed Indian supporters if they don't get to the final at least.
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Australia
One-day cricket is such a fickle business and that's why some people say it should not determine a World Cup because the balance of power can swing very quickly.
Australia will still be favourites but their recent run of defeats is fascinating to reflect on and it's very good for this tournament that they've suffered this lapse.
They have some key issues to resolve.
Andrew Symonds will be injured when the tournament starts and they're going to miss him enormously - he's absolutely key to the balance of their side.
Symonds bowls medium pace and spin, and it looks likely that those sort of bowlers will prosper in the Caribbean.
He is also an explosive batsman and a brilliant fielder.
Shane Watson, ostensibly his replacement, is not a bad cricketer but did not play well against England at all and has some work to do.
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AUSTRALIA: SEEDED 1
Australia have won the World Cup a record three times
Ricky Ponting, Adam Gilchrist and Glenn McGrath are all bidding to get onto the winner's podium for the third time |
Adam Gilchrist will also miss the start and the other massive issue is that Brett Lee - rated the sixth best bowler in one-day internationals - is out of the tournament.
His replacement, Stuart Clark, was a surprising omission in the first place, but the inclusion of Shaun Tait could be dangerous and could tip the balance the other team's way in a tight match.
He is exciting but if it is going to be a low-scoring tournament, someone who flings the ball all over the place at a speed where the ball will come onto the bat has to be a risk.
I would still be quite cautious about him as a one-day selection.
There are problems all over the place - Matthew Hayden is also struggling to get over an injury and despite his wonderful 181 in Hamilton has not been at his best of late.
It is hard to go into a tournament as favourites anyway, and particularly when you have had a rocky ride like they have.
But let's not get too carried away. Ricky Ponting is a great motivator and has done great things for that side.
In Australia's favour is the fact that they have two minnow matches before facing South Africa in their group.
Given that South Africa will be second favourites for the tournament that's going to be a huge game.
If Australia win it, they will look a huge force again.
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Sri Lanka
This is a really unpredictable team, who could have a great tournament or could be swept away in the Super Eights.
For me, Mahela Jayawardene is an outstanding captain. The leadership came by default when Marvan Atapattu picked up a long-term injury but it's been the making of him.
He is also a beautiful batsman, and part of an exciting top order featuring the veteran Sanath Jayasuriya - a massively experienced and hugely dangerous player - and the sensible Atapattu.
The wicket-keeper Kumar Sangakkara is also a wonderfully talented player and between the four of them they have a unit who can set big targets and chase big targets.
As for the bowlers, Chaminda Vaas and Muttiah Muralitharan, intelligently rested for the series in India, will produce 20 formidable overs between them in every match.
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SRI LANKA: SEEDED 2
The unexpected 1996 World Cup triumph transformed cricket in Sri Lanka
Never quite as good since, they did reach the 2003 semi-finals |
Vaas has some very good slower balls which he conceals well and we all know what Murali can do with his heavily-spun off-breaks.
With Sri Lanka, it's all just a question of what support the core players will get from the other team members.
The lower order batting, with players such as Tillakaratne Dilshan and Chamara Silva, are going to have to perform.
All-rounder Farveez Maharoof has an important role to fill, then there are the back-up seamers like the fast Dilhara Fernando and the sling-shot bowler Lasith Malinga.
Fernando and Malinga have both produced some excellent spells in recent matches.
But they will now need to produce consistent performances on potentially slow, low wickets that may not suit their style of bowling.
Sri Lanka are a good fielding side. They have improved hugely in that regard since the arrival of coach Tom Moody.
English fans will remember Sri Lanka thrashing us 5-0 in the summer of 2006.
It was probably the worst performance ever from an England team in one-day internationals.
Sri Lanka showed in those matches that they have the players to capitalise on a situation when they take an early advantage.
But I still feel they are no more than an outside bet to win the World Cup.
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New Zealand
One or two observers really rate New Zealand, who for me are as close to a one-man team as you can get.
Fast bowler Shane Bond is their team; he is their prospects.
He has a remarkable record, with an average of 19.66 in one-day internationals, bettered by only three men from yesteryear - the West Indian pair of Joel Garner and Tony Gray, plus England's Mike Hendrick.
Bond is fast. He's a wicket-taker. He totally transforms what is otherwise a pretty ordinary, trundling team into one that has a cutting edge.
He bowls particularly well with the white ball and it's not an exaggeration to say New Zealand's hopes depend on him.
Sadly, he has so often succumbed to injury, but look what happens to the team when he does play.
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NEW ZEALAND: SEEDED 3
New Zealand have been beaten in the semi-finals four times
Their win in the 2000 ICC Champions Trophy is their highlight in one-day cricket |
There's some good bowling support for Bond, with left-arm seamer James Franklin and spinner Daniel Vettori capable of very good performances.
Batting-wise, the skipper Stephen Fleming seems to be getting back into form again.
I like watching him. He's one of the best left-handers in the world, a lovely player, a great captain, a very level-headed, calm leader with plenty of experience.
Nathan Astle has retired, however, and they might miss his ability to score quickly at the top of the order.
Some of the batsmen, like Ross Taylor and Peter Fulton, are very inexperienced.
They have recently batted pretty well as a team on really good wickets, but less well on slower decks and they might not get too many belting tracks in the Caribbean.
Jacob Oram's broken finger has forced him out of the vital group match against England, but he should be back for the Super Eights.
That will be important for the Kiwis, because he's a decent cricketer who can smack fours and sixes about in the lower order and bowl decent medium pace too.
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Pakistan
Clearly the recent withdrawal of three players - and three of their best bowlers - in Shoaib Akhtar, Mohammad Asif and Abdul Razzaq will be a huge blow to Pakistan's hopes.
In the case of Shoaib and Asif, it maintains a cloud of suspicion regarding their taking of banned substances. We know they had tested positive for nandrolone last September, after all.
Shortly before they pulled out - without having submitted to the Pakistan Cricket Board's mandatory drugs test - something else happened.
The International Cricket Council announced it was going to step up their anti-doping measures throughout the tournament, and that was good to see.
Two of the replacements (Azhar Mahmood and Mohammad Sami) are experienced, the third (Yasir Arafat) less so.
Sami tends to be pretty expensive and you would have to say their bowling resources do look pretty limited now.
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PAKISTAN: SEEDED 4
Pakistan beat England in the 1992 World Cup final under Imran Khan's captaincy
Seven years later, they were thrashed by Australia in the final at Lord's |
I do like Umar Gul, however, who is accurate and will do well on sluggish wickets, while the selection of specialist spinner Danish Kaneria shows the way people are thinking.
Slow bowling could be very important in the Caribbean.
There is going to be a lot of pressure on Pakistan's batsmen now and at least they do have three magnificent one-day players in Inzamam-ul-Haq, Mohammad Yousuf and Younis Khan.
They are all outstandingly good at pacing their innings without seemingly taking risks.
Contrasting them, Imran Nazir goes out and plays his shots. That's fine - you want someone to do that. And if he comes off, he gets the bowlers panicking.
There is a bit of a worry with the wicket-keeper, Kamran Akmal. His standard of glovework has dropped and the runs aren't flowing either.
I have a feeling he is beginning to work his way back into form and actually think he'll have a decent tournament.
Pakistan kick off the whole tournament with a match against the hosts in Jamaica, which I think could be a terrific curtain-raiser.
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South Africa
Many people will have South Africa on their shortlist as finalists or potential winners.
In truth, they have a pretty rotten record in the four World Cups they have played.
And we said at the last two that if they played well they had a chance of winning. But they failed to do so, and just bottled it really.
There was the famous run-out of Allan Donald against Australia in the semi-final of 1999, then they went out in Durban in 2003 after misinterpreting the rain regulations.
You feel that if Stephen Fleming had been captain of their team on those two occasions none of it would have happened.
Their current captain Graeme Smith has said he feels the team are calmer now.
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SOUTH AFRICA: SEEDED 5
Sporting sanctions forced South Africa to miss the first four World Cups
They have since made two semi-finals, in 1992 and 1999 |
They needed that, because they have certainly been hampered by being a bit too frenetic at times.
And now they have just beaten India and Pakistan, are rated the number one team in the official rankings and are clearly in decent touch.
Although they really lack a quality spinner, they possess a good bowling attack.
Shaun Pollock and Makhaya Ntini are both wicket-takers, then there's Andre Nel who winds people up but is actually quite steady and Andrew Hall who bowls well at the death.
Of them, Pollock and Hall can bat as well and there are some good specialist batsmen too, in the shape of Smith, Jacques Kallis and Herschelle Gibbs.
They are all good, solid players who have been around a long time.
If the one specialist slow bowler in the squad, Robin Petersen, does not play at all, then Smith will bowl his occasional off-spin and the medium-pacers will bowl a few slower balls.
One problem South Africa might encounter is the pitches. Of all the teams they are probably least suited to the conditions.
They've got attacking, aggressive bowlers, but you just get the feeling it might be a tournament for negative bowlers.
As the bookmakers' second favourites, it is bizarre that they are facing Australia in their group. That match between the two sides on 24 March in St Kitts will be a fascinating pointer.
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West Indies
I think it would be pretty miraculous for West Indies to win the World Cup.
They are playing at home, but home advantage has never done anybody any good in past tournaments.
What is clearly lacking from Windies teams of the past is pace bowling. In fact, they have deliberately shied away from firepower.
Along come Chris Gayle and Marlon Samuels twiddling the ball around once the power plays are over, and it's all about fiddling overs, with all-rounders Dwayne Bravo and Dwayne Smith bowling their medium pace.
They know their home grounds and conditions very well, so to see the way they are playing the game - is an interesting eye-opener to how the wickets might behave.
A new pitch is rarely a fast pitch - it's one that you are happy to last the game.
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WEST INDIES: SEEDED 6
West Indies won the first two World Cups, in the 1970s
They have reached just one semi-final since then, and hosts have a poor record |
I don't think it will be high-scoring tournament and I think the West Indies are counting on that, with an attack that "takes the pace off the ball".
The batting is strong and is packed with match-winners, like Gayle and Brian Lara.
It will be interesting to see if Marlon Samuels is distracted by the investigation into his alleged links with a bookmaker, but he's been playing well.
The Guyanese pair of Shiv Chanderpaul and Ramnaresh Sarwan are adept at knocking down a target steadily, so there is a good contrasting mix of batsmen.
This could be Lara's swansong and it would be nice for him to have a good tournament to go on.
He is the epitome of a big-match player - an over-used phrase these days. You can bet your life he will be really keen to go out on a big note.
The West Indies match against Pakistan is potentially a brilliant curtain-raiser. I'll be in Jamaica for that one and I'm looking forward to it.
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England
When they announced their squad, I made plain my reservations about Michael Vaughan and I still feel his position as captain is the over-riding issue.
The team management must work out if he's physically up to this challenge or not.
Chairman of selectors David Graveney has been saying other competing nations have injury worries.
They do, but not with the captain. Vaughan is an outstanding captain, but not an outstanding player in one-day cricket. It would be terrible for the team if he had to fly home early with injury.
I am also concerned about the bowling, which is very inexperienced. Jon Lewis and James Anderson need to be fit.
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ENGLAND: SEEDED 7
England have hosted four of the previous eight World Cups, and been beaten in three finals
They failed to get out of the group stage in 1999 and 2003 |
I'm not sure the conditions will necessarily suit either of them very much, because they'll want the ball to swing and I'm not sure it will very much.
But at least they have been around the block a bit - Anderson was in the side in the last World Cup and Lewis has been a county pro for many years.
Of the other bowlers, Liam Plunkett is only 21, a real kid. Sajid Mahmood is inconsistent and Monty Panesar has only played half a dozen one-day internationals.
Both Plunkett and Mahmood have potential and I expect Monty to bowl well in the Caribbean, but you can still imagine a situation where if a couple of players get in and thrash the bowling around, the captain's going to be looking at where to turn to.
It may be that people like Kevin Pietersen and even Ian Bell have to do some bowling just to relieve the others.
The top three in the batting looks one-dimensional. Other teams have got people who take on the bowlers and smack it over the top. England have got Vaughan, Ed Joyce and Ian Bell.
To give him his due, Bell did start to hit over the top in the power play overs in Australia, but it will be especially important to have that skill in this tournament and none of them are the most adept at it.
We know England are not a great one-day side. They have had these confidence-boosting wins in Australia but their one-day cricket, overall, has been horribly inconsistent for about 10 years.
If they can suddenly nail it down now that will be terrific but they will have to play at the standards they reached at the end of the Australian tour.
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