Indian Idol winner - a probability question

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2cents

@2cents

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Posted: 15 years ago

The Final of Indian Idol 5 Probability Version is on 15th August 2010 (just to make it dramatic).

The top 3 finalists are Rakesh, Shivam and Sreeram (in alphabetical order). The twist to the story? The winner is going to be chosen by a simple throw of dice!!! So all you fan-tastic people can relax!

Hussain (I like him much better than Abhijeet as the host), calls YOU on to the stage and asks you to pick your winner (the die is already cast, probably by our favorite judge - Anuji). Well you pick one. Let's say you pick Shivam. Then after the usual 10 minute drama, Hussain let's u know that Sreeram is 3rd and out (again all of you wonderful fans just relax this is just a game!!).

Then he asks you the critical question, Are you going to change your decision about the winner before he declaresi.e., will you change your winner from Shivam to Rakesh? If you guess correctly, you are gonna go away in that ugly truck that they are promoting (sort of a disincentive I guess but clearly since people are buying that monster you can get rid of it for some dope, so yes you do have an incentive to get it right)

What will you do? Change your decision from Shivam to Rakesh? Yes or No? And ofcourse, Why?

Keep your charged up emotions to the side and let the grey cells do some work for a change!!

All the Best!!

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xobile

@xobile

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Posted: 15 years ago

There'd be no point in changing because both Shivam and Rakesh would have an equal chance of winning if the channelwallahs use a fair die. You have a 50/50 chance of winning the truck, whoever you pick. Since the truck can be seen as an incentive as well as a disincentive, you can always alter your perception and be happy whether you win or lose the bet. Thus, there is a 100% chance of you leaving happy. In other words, satisfaction is guaranteed.

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2cents

@2cents

Beginner

Posted: 15 years ago

Originally posted by: xobile
There'd be no point in changing because both Shivam and Rakesh would have an equal chance of winning if the channelwallahs use a fair die. You have a 50/50 chance of winning the truck, whoever you pick. Since the truck can be seen as an incentive as well as a disincentive, you can always alter your perception and be happy whether you win or lose the bet. Thus, there is a 100% chance of you leaving happy. In other words, satisfaction is guaranteed.

Well, if it were that easy, I wouldn't bother making this post? Would I?

Or maybe, if I want to mess with your mind (think INCEPTION😳!!!) !! Making a simple question look difficult by simply asking it and then raising this doubt, why will somebody ask such a simple a question?!!!

Fortunately, I am not trying to mess around here. It is a tricky question and you need to delve deeper, couple of levels (think INCEPTION again!😳!). When you first made your choice there were 3 people and one throw of an unbiased dice by our deal ol' Anuji (you think he can do that??). Then some new information is disclosed to you which you were not aware of before. Hmmm.... you don't think it has value? (think Conditional Probability 😕)

Try again!!! Always worth exercising that gray muscle. To make you feel better, the answer you gave is the most common we get for this question, so no need to feel bad. Just time to dig deeper!!

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Indian Idol winner - a probability question

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