For the Number nerds

Originally posted by: return_to_hades

They must have thought there were no nerds watching Jhalak. I have been wanting to tabulate probabilities of the Jhalak scoring for a while now. However, as a Hard Kaur fan, I was quite miffed that she was voted out. So I wanted to see the probabilities of her being the second highest scorer and still being in the dance off. So I created my own table and plugged in the numbers.

Voila! To view the table in google docs click here.

Column 1 60-30 has marks out of 60. Adding scores of the two performances.
Row A is percentage of audiene votes.
All those numbers in between is final marks out of hundred with 50-50 weightage to judges marks and audience votes. So lets say someone who got 53/60 and 77% of final votes then their final weighted score should be 83.

Final Scores
Baichung - 56 - tan probability area
Hard Kaur - 53 - blue probability area
Gauhar - 46 yellow probability area
Karan - 43 blue probability area

If Hard Kaur got 20% votes Karan needs 36% to beat her. Baichung has to have at least 37%. So Gauhar has only 7%. It is completely plausible.

However, I doubt realitiscally if any contestant scored as low as 7% or that there could be a 16% gap between Hard Kaur and Karan.

Originally posted by: n0sh

okay, i totallyy dont get it! :P

but nice job! :D

Originally posted by: hope4u

whoa, i enjoyed this! tried to brush my long dead math skills! 😆 ...
just 1 thing.. shouldn't it be row 1 and column A?

LOL! You are right. My bad. Goof up.

anyways, the actual plot, im having a little difficulty in understanding it.. so u may have to explain it a little more in detail..

Basically, my point I tried to make. There is very little difference between HK and Baichung. Karan and Gauhar come way below. There is very low probability that HK and Gauhar were in the bottom. More likely is Gauhar and Karan in bottom. It would take very skewed voting for the results we got, but it is not impossible.

however, im just assuming here that u have taken a percentile? so the highest scorer, and highest in terms of votes will have the highest percentile.. the rest will have a percentile based on HIS percentile.
that was the calculation i was assuming all along.. so going by that, baichung will have the highest score percentile.. hard kaur will be second, though her difference from baichung wont be much.. again karan and gauhar wont have much of a difference.. now there is gonna be a huge difference between baichung and karan, and karan and hard kaur.. same goes for gauhar.

My skills and terminology are very limited. What I did was calculated the average of vote percentage and marks with a 50-50 weightage.

coming to the votes.. bear in mind, only the TB article has mentioned about baichung getting the highest scores.. it wasnt said in jhalak.. i have a feeling that wasnt the case..baichung was simply the highest with the votes and scores combined, and hence the first finalist..
going by this logic, kran must've got the highest votes, enough to beat hard kaur by a sufficient margin.. thereby their vote percentile difference might've overthrown the scores percentile.. enough for karan to beat hard kaur by a margin, however small it might be.
baichung on the other hand, gets very good votes too, so to put karan in the face off, hard kaur need to have been the second highest in votes, which we know cannot have happened.. hence this left her in the face off with gauhar..

This was based on the assumption that Baichung got the highest votes. Scenarios would change if Karan was highest.

hope im right here? will be waiting for a mathematical confirmation. 😆

Yes HK would probably need to come second highest. However, Karan needs to be 16% points ahead of her. So HK probably scored unusually low percentage of votes.

Originally posted by: return_to_hades

What I did was calculated the average of vote percentage and marks with a 50-50 weightage.