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charminggenie

@charminggenie

Stunner

+ 2

Posted: 8 years ago

#331

@Birdie- This is what happens when you refuse to read the exact RBI statement, I continue to copy-paste what they have mentioned. Again another simplified link for you or you could maybe check the RBI data, statements yourself- http://indianexpress.com/article/business/banking-and-finance/reserve-bank-of-india-demonetisation-note-ban-no-information-on-black-money-removed-parliamentary-panel-4828653/

Oh the reason why I am critical of Jaitley changing his versions is because he in his PC mentioned that this wasn't about black money as such. Again quoting RBI here on the black money data, the reason it says it failed to give genuine numbers is because quote-unquote, "lot of people from low-income group allegedly deposited money in their accounts on behalf of tax evaders in return of a fat commission. The government managed to tackle some syndicates, but these were virtually unstoppable."

I may be copy-pasting but I am yet to see you quote any fact or any number backing your claim that this would or has helped the Govt nab big IT defaulters .Has there been any significant arrests, more raids..it's been an year surely there would be some data to present this case.

Or anything this Govt has done in an year to indicate that it has tighten the loopholes of the system .

Yes in silicon valley goals change when few flop the whole company goes bust and a country with our population and poverty cannot afford that. I again ask is there an economic policy in any country which caused about more than 100 deaths . I wonder which company would survive that catastrophe .

On Rajan, again I will just let his exact words here because you seem to have a different interpretation of his book (pre-orders are available) , his speeches or his quotes.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/raghuram-rajan-breaks-silence-says-he-wasn-t-on-board-for-demonetisation/story-6rXr8VWBpFd4w37NySulEN.html

But some words for others here , "I was asked by the government in February 2016 for my views on demonetisation, which I gave orally. Although there might be long-term benefits, I felt the likely short-term economic costs would outweigh them and there were potentially better alternatives to achieve the main goals. I made these views known in uncertain terms, he wrote.

He also added that the central bank had handed over a note to the government outlining the potential cost and benefits of scrapping the higher denomination currency as well as alternatives that can be taken to achieve similar aims. Detailed report was presented to the Govt. outlining that short-term costs outweighed long-term benefits which remain to be vague and uncharted"

Rajan made it clear it was a stupid policy, he backed it with numbers , presented alternatives and in his report he called the long-term benefits as vague which continues to be the case.

Before we go all about his credentials as ex-RBI, only reason he is clarifying is because the data and his analysis showing this as a failed policy was submitted to Parliament Panel. Again suitable alternatives were presented. I will quote one of his panel reports on this policy for the alternative . Goods and services tax is a far superior instrument to rid the economy of black money.Along with proposed tax slabs and company laws. That, and the growth of telecom, could together push India to a level of digital payments unprecedented for an economy of India's level of income, even without the help of painful demonetisation.

Back your theory with numbers or any data or any report from RBI on the paper trail because almost 1 year has gone by. Actually, will give this Govt. 4 more years, let me know if black money hording stops or if this data helps in anyway. Will be more than happy to accept my wrong assessment and cheer for this visionary policy.

@K- Not against Aadhar.

@SG- What to say about a murder other than nab the criminals.

Edited by charminggenie - 8 years ago

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charminggenie

@charminggenie

Stunner

+ 2

Posted: 8 years ago

#332

Actually chuck all this I would greatly appreciate if some good Gent here will explain how a country with vivid economic, social, physical parameters and of such scale can be compared with a functioning of any company especially one from Valley. How would co-relation play out here.

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@K.Universe.

Voyager

Posted: 8 years ago

#333

Originally posted by: charminggenie
Actually chuck all this I would greatly appreciate if some good Gent here will explain how a country with vivid economic, social, physical parameters and of such scale can be compared with a functioning of any company especially one from Valley. How would co-relation play out here.

I am sure Birdie will defend his argument in a much more colorful way but based on my interpretation of what he said, the comparison is not so much between India and a silicon valley startup as it is between the ones running them.

Just as those running these startups go against the grain, stay bold and stay levelheaded even when confronted by hiccups/failures while at the same time continually innovate and refine the original light-bulb moment, the leaders running the country too should do the same. As an investor, you need to have patience. This is just a seed round. Long way to go before the IPO. Long way to go before the investors see any real returns.

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@K.Universe.

Voyager

Posted: 8 years ago

#334

Originally posted by: charminggenie

@K- Not against Aadhar.

Originally posted by: charminggenie

As far as data is concerned , what is aadhar then. Why do this when you are getting access to everything through aadhar.

Well, the point we were originally making was that a lot of irregular transactions such as backdated accounting or deposits without a PAN, have left a money trail thanks to demonetization and that data could be used to further the original goal of going after black-marketeers; Whereas you first said, and I quoted you above, why ddo all this when we have Aadhar. And when we questioned what has Aadhar got to do with any of this (as in, without the incriminating data, what good is Aadhar), you seem to be saying that you are not against Aadhar (?!)

As you can tell, I am a little flabbergasted.

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charminggenie

@charminggenie

Stunner

+ 2

Posted: 8 years ago

#335

@K- Seed round doesn't work for nations when your economy suffers and you have humanly loss of more than 100 people. Again deaths. So do explain to me how bold ideas work here especially when most rational economists , RBI's initial report warns of impending failures.

We have in a past flirted with the same policy with no success then ,so what made us think it will work better this time. Is it really bold then?

@Bold- I will appreciate if you can quote numbers, data, RBI , or anyone that such accounts or people have been apprehended

. The "money trail" you both mentioned is what RBI and the Govt has accepted is difficult to follow through. If you think it isn't, then please do share reports , because Income Tax of India in 2017 shared , " For instance, in income-tax probes from April 1 to Oct, 2016 financial year, black-money holders accepted having stashed Rs 7,700 crore worth of ill-gotten assets. The cash component was merely Rs 408 crore or 5%. The remaining was invested in business, stocks, real estate and benami bank accounts, the data show. Financial year 2015-16 saw the highest black-money detection in the period, of which 6% was cash. Since demonetization the money detection has dwindled to 4%. ".

Unless Birdie or you have a different take with some data that I seem to be missing , it would help greatly. Because Govt is saying that it is hard to nail this trail because of many factors , one being, Owners of black money have reportedly been able to get various FDs in such institutions in names of various villagers in back dates, and received new currency notes in due course, after paying a cut to those in whose name they deposited the money. Non-banking financial institutions who accept such deposits also reportedly acted similarly in helping convert black money into white. Financial Times carried an extensive report on how the trail was covered up https://www.ft.com/content/7dbe0e14-8d8a-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d

I humbly request you to enlighten me about this "money trail", because I am very clueless what you both are saying or projecting when Govt. through IT and RBI are saying another thing.

So to be clear about my point of aadhar, it is compulsory for Indians to link their accounts with PAN and aadhar. Giving Govt. access to all necessary information. When you open an account or for an existing account- PAN number and Aadhar have been essential before this policy giving Govt. access to monitor accounts since eons.

Money trail if was detected by RBI, they would have been able to prevent the re-circulation of black money in Indian banks , 99% of black money is pumped back in. I mean, won't you stop that if you know about the money trail.

You mentioned going after black-marketeers , I am sure we will know the status in 2-3 years then? Or how long do you think is a good time to expect a crackdown ? I really do sincerely wish what both of you so optimistically hope comes true. Jaitley mentioned some 200 accounts under scanner , funnily he earlier mentioned 500 such accounts , the number keeps on changing and his statements too. The crux of my argument rests in the fact that Indians are good in jugaad. 😆

I defended this policy when it came through, evidence rests on this thread but the way Govt. went through with it and seemed incompetent and unprepared showed why it was a bad policy. Your banking system, IT are in co-hoots with real black-market mafia , till you sort that out, jugaad will always triumph.

Edited by charminggenie - 8 years ago

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@K.Universe.

Voyager

Posted: 8 years ago

#336

Genie, it's not a bad policy to come up with a scheme designed to draw the undeclared / fake cash out of the shadows. The execution didn't go down well and we all acknowledged it. If I install a surveillance system at my home to deter burglars and if the burglars circumvent it, it doesn't mean my decision to install the system was a bad one. it just means that the thieving buggers proved "cleverer" than anticipated.

Tragic loss of life yes but we also know of incidents wherein people died in stampedes trying to catch a local train or trying to get an idol darshan or trying to catch a glimpse of their favorite celebrity. Can you really blame these deaths on Modi?

Rest of it, later...

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charminggenie

@charminggenie

Stunner

+ 2

Posted: 8 years ago

#337

Originally posted by: K.Universe.

Genie, it's not a bad policy to come up with a scheme designed to draw the undeclared / fake cash out of the shadows. The execution didn't go down well and we all acknowledged it. If I install a surveillance system at my home to deter burglars and if the burglars circumvent it, it doesn't mean my decision to install the system was a bad one. it just means that the thieving buggers proved "cleverer" than anticipated.

Tragic loss of life yes but we also know of incidents wherein people died in stampedes trying to catch a local train or trying to get an idol darshan or trying to catch a glimpse of their favorite celebrity. Can you really blame these deaths on Modi?

Rest of it, later...

The difference between stampedes caused by people trying to catch a local train or trying to get an idol darshan and this case is "choice" . All those people who die in such unfortunate situations chose to be there because of their will and hence are responsible for their actions while in case here where a country decided on a huge policy change,made it compulsory, which will need people standing in queues for hours/days/weeks , Modi or his ministry would have anticipated the tangibles hence needed a double take of arrangements/policy review etc. In most courts govt. will be help accountable.

I think my issue is just that policy had proven in the past as well to be bad, yet I willingly thought this Govt. might have a better plan.Yet, if you recall the chaos of those weeks, every day RBI was changing it's directives, causing confusion and what not, that to me showed that Govt. had no clue what it had taken .

My anger is more so when PM willingly lies in his speeches , spews random numbers while official report released show a different picture. This normalization of lies is what disappoints me mostly.

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@K.Universe.

Voyager

Posted: 8 years ago

#338

Originally posted by: charminggenie

Genie, it's not a bad policy to come up with a scheme designed to draw the undeclared / fake cash out of the shadows. The execution didn't go down well and we all acknowledged it. If I install a surveillance system at my home to deter burglars and if the burglars circumvent it, it doesn't mean my decision to install the system was a bad one. it just means that the thieving buggers proved "cleverer" than anticipated.

People are either disciplined or they are not. That is a choice!

Off the top of my head, they could have made up rules on the spot - Rs. 10,000 or less of deposits in one line at one branch, a million or more another line another branch ...I don't know, I am just spit-balling here but I refuse to believe that deaths couldn't have been avoided after this decision to demonetize was taken.

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charminggenie

@charminggenie

Stunner

+ 2

Posted: 8 years ago

#339

@K- You know why it's very difficult for me to acknowledge that it's okay, policies fail or intent was "good", because I and maybe most of us come from a place of privilege ,we could work with no cash for a week or more, we live in cities and probably have access to many basic rights because of our privilege on the basis of social, economic parameters .

But the real blow was on the lower economic strata who are not privileged , most of them make a living solely through cash , unorganized sector and daily wage . I overlooked them and hoped the Govt. had thought it through for them but you know what happened, as now RBI numbers show unorganized sector, lower income groups have shown the greater hit .Some have lost lives, business and dignity. Like this story , do give it a read and understand why I feel angry - http://www.hindustantimes.com/gurgaon/a-retired-soldier-in-tears-meet-the-man-who-has-become-the-face-of-cash-crunch-woes/story-lz6t3xneMMJlF1rlnzhRlK.html

Thats one story, we have so many such cases where poor have lost their hard-earned money, business overnight. It's then when you realize how privilege one has to be to ignore or take them for granted while framing , analyzing any policy especially in India . I don't need to tell you that those 100 odd deaths belong to which economic group or which age group.

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@K.Universe.

Voyager

Posted: 8 years ago

#340

Originally posted by: charminggenie
@K- You know why it's very difficult for me to acknowledge that it's okay, policies fail or intent was "good", because I and maybe most of us come from a place of privilege ,we could work with no cash for a week or more, we live in cities and probably have access to many basic rights because of our privilege on the basis of social, economic parameters .
But the real blow was on the lower economic strata who are not privileged , most of them make a living solely through cash , unorganized sector and daily wage . I overlooked them and hoped the Govt. had thought it through for them but you know what happened, as now RBI numbers show unorganized sector, lower income groups have shown the greater hit .Some have lost lives, business and dignity. Like this story , do give it a read and understand why I feel angry - http://www.hindustantimes.com/gurgaon/a-retired-soldier-in-tears-meet-the-man-who-has-become-the-face-of-cash-crunch-woes/story-lz6t3xneMMJlF1rlnzhRlK.html
Thats one story, we have so many such cases where poor have lost their hard-earned money, business overnight. It's then when you realize how privilege one has to be to ignore or take them for granted while framing , analyzing any policy especially in India . I don't need to tell you that those 100 odd deaths belong to which economic group or which age group.

Fine. I read the story of Nand Lal. So he couldn't withdraw his pension for a couple of days, he cried, they let him jump the queue and withdraw money.

I am sorry but at the risk of appearing heartless, I would say you are arguing by appealing to emotion.No true cost-benefit analysis can be made if you bring tears into the equation.

Your anger is very valid but I feel is also a little displaced.

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