India now at the mercy of Lady Luck
18 Mar 2007
Press Trust of India
After their opening round humiliation against Bangladesh, Team India needs a heavy dose of favour from Lady Luck if they are to make the cut for the Super 8 stage of the Cricket World Cup.
Theoritically, all is not lost yet for India, who can still make it to the elite league by finishing among the top two sides from Group B.
According to the World Cup rules, top two teams from each group will qualify for the Super 8 stage but with Sri Lanka and Bangladesh having already won a match each and India yet to open an account, their promotion to next level is in jeopardy.
To keep themselves afloat, the immediate assignment before Rahul Dravid's men is to win against Bermuda with a heavy margin on Monday and improve their run rate.
And even if India manage to do that, they will have to get past the biggest hurdle on March 23 when they meet Sri Lanka and again a mere win here won't suffice.
Sri Lanka, the other title contender in Group B, have already made their intentions clear with a 243-run pounding of Bermuda and that means mere win won't do it for India if it comes to net run rate.
Assuming India achieve even that, the passage to Super 8 is still not assured and then it would hinge on the outcome of the Bangladesh-Bermuda match on March 25.
In that match, India would clearly be rooting for the American outfit, hoping them to tame the Bangla Tigers even though that would need another upset.
And to talk about the worst case, a defeat on Monday against Bermuda or the Lankans on March 23 would be the end of all roads for the Men in Blue.
On the other hand, whoever wins the March 21 match between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will book their Super 8 berth.
Net run rate
If the point tally fails to settle the issue, net run rate would decide the fate if teams are locked in a tie.
A team's net run rate is calculated by deducting from the average runs per over scored by that side throughout the relevant portion of the competition, the average runs per over scored against that team throughout the relevant portion of the competition.
If everything goes according to India's liking, still Bangladesh would enjoy an enviable situation as they would have a clear idea about what they need when they meet Bermuda on March 25.
And despite all calculations and number-crunching, rained out matches or tied ties can turn every equation upside down.
At this stage, it is clear that mere performance won't suffice anymore and Team India, far from being the maker of its own destiny, is at the complete mercy of lady luck in this World Cup.
http://www.ndtv.com/ndtvcricket/showstory.aspx?id=32979& site=ndtv
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