January 14, 2000. The date a star was born. A superstar. An overnight sensation. Hritikh Roshan's Kaho Naa...Pyaar Hai released and defeated two of the three Khans in the process: Aamir Khan and his film Mela, which released a week before KNPH, and Shah Rukh Khan's Phir Bhi Dil Hai Hindustani which released a week after KNPH. The films of the two Khans failed at the box office, while Roshan's film (his debut film!) became a Blockbuster.
The year 2000 became a turning point for Hritikh. Up until that point, Shah Rukh Khan was considered the biggest star in Bollywood, the baadshah of Bollywood as he is fondly referred to as. After KNPH, things changed, and suddenly Hritikh was a major threat to SRK's #1 position. As a matter of fact, I recall recently reading news that at the time, a fight or an argument had started in reality somewhere in India between a group of SRK fans and a group of Hritikh fans!
Those events were based on January 2000. Flash forward 17 years later to January 2017, and Hritikh and SRK are locking horns...again!
As equal/similar as their career graph was in the year 2000, it's equally similar now. In 2013, both stars delivered a huge Blockbuster at the box office, in the form of Krrish 3 and Chennai Express respectively. In 2014, both stars gave a big-budget underperformer at the box office, in the form of Bang Bang and Happy New Year. In 2016, both of them delivered huge disappointments in terms of audience WOM and box office with their own respective team that were considered safe bets (SRK/YRF and Hritikh/Ashutosh) in the form of Fan and Mohenjo Daro. Both films performed miserably at the box office.
Both stars are out to prove something. To prove that they are not has-beens. Something's gotta give!
The father-son, director-actor duo of Rakesh Roshan and Hritikh Roshan have created on-screen magic several times over the years. Kaho Naa...Pyaar Hai, Koi...Mil Gaya, Krrish, and Krrish 3 all went on to become Blockbusters at the box office.
Directly the opposite of that was their combination when Rakesh was a producer instead of director with Kites, which performed miserably at the box office and was one of the biggest box office disappointments of Hritikh's career.
The duo is back again with Kaabil, this time in the form of Rakesh as a producer again.
Let's discuss the positives first:
Kaabil looks to be a film high on emotions. The portions shown of the blind couple (Hritikh/Yami) seem to have emotional connect and light moments (such as Hritikh impersonating Amitabh Bachchan in a scene) for the Indian audience. The story of a blind couple, the likely murder of the female in the relationship as shown in the trailer (Yami Gautam), and the hero's revenge to take out the villains... as a matter of fact, the last two points mentioned seem quite similar to Aamir Khan's Ghajini, which itself was a huge Blockbuster.
From the promos, the performances look to be of high caliber in this film. Hritikh Roshan seems to have given a very strong performance, although some feel that his acting has a hangover of Rohit Mehra from Koi...Mil Gaya. Ronit Roy has already displayed his capability of portraying the role of a villain very well, as he showed a few years ago in Akshay Kumar's Boss.
Now, to the negative points:
Kaabil does somewhat have a "all-too-familiar" feel to it. I mentioned earlier that the film has similarities to Ghajini and although it can be a good thing, it can also lead the film to tread a path of predictability. The basic idea of the film seems to be that Yami gets killed, Hritikh kills the villains and gets his revenge...it gives off a "been there, done that" vibe. We've seen similar stories in the past. There is novelty in the form of the couple being blind, but other than that, there doesn't seem to be much novelty which will somewhat dilute the impact for the multiplex audience.
Kaabil also carries a very dark, intense vibe to the film, which would restrict repeat value. In 2012, Hritikh Roshan's Agneepath released during the same Republic Day period, and even with the a record-breaking opening day and positive WOM (Word of Mouth), the film couldn't reach anywhere near all-time grosser status and part of the reason for that was that the film lacked repeat value due to its violent, dark, intense nature. Kaabil will also have limited repeat value.
The director, Sanjay Gupta. Aatish: Feel the Fire and Shootout at Wadala are probably his most successful films at the box office, and yet, both only attained "Average verdict." Yes, two films with Average verdict out of 12 films as a director, spanning a period of nearly 23 years! His highest rated film as a director on popular internet database IMDb is 6.5/10 for Kaante, which itself isn't exactly a great rating. His last two directorial ventures Jazbaa and Shootout at Wadala have 5.8/10 rating, so there is a huge chance that Kaabil ends up with the same rating. What's also interesting is that the opening day to lifetime ratio for both Jazbaa and Shootout at Wadala is approximately 5.96, which is generally a poor ratio. Kaabil will likely end up with a little higher ratio just because of the Republic Day holiday advantage, but even that advantage isn't completely there as there is a cricket match happening that day.
Despite the confidence of the Roshans in keeping their release date against Raees, I'm expecting the all-India WOM (Word of Mouth) of Kaabil to be mixed. The single screen audience will appreciate Hritikh Roshan, the revenge story, the dialogues, the action sequences, but may feel some boredom during the Hritikh/Yami blind couple scenes (including the Mon Amour song). The multiplex audience will appreciate the blind couple scenes and the development leading to Hritikh wanting revenge for Yami against the villains, but will not appreciate the lack of novelty.
Kaabil's promos (especially songs) have received a better response from viewers than Hritikh's last film Mohenjo Daro, although the Jab Kisi Se song promo comes across as more of a music video than a song promo for a film. However, much like Mohenjo Daro, Hritikh's film is in a clash yet again, even bigger competition this time as he goes against Shah Rukh Khan's Raees. Also, like Mohenjo Daro, the female lead isn't popular. I feel that the opening day collection of Kaabil will be better than Mohenjo Daro's as Kaabil's theatrical trailer and songs have received a better response than that of Mohenjo Daro's and the advantage of Kaabil's night shows getting a boost in collections because of the Republic Day holiday the next day. The last time SRK had a clash, it was against Bajirao Mastani which had an opening day collection approximately 61% of the opening day of Dilwale. That film had three stars (Ranveer/Priyanka/Deepika) whereas Kaabil has only Hritikh, but his starpower alone should result in him getting around 60% of the opening day collection of Raees.
My Box Office Predictions for Kaabil:
Opening Day: 11.75 crores net
Opening 5-Day Weekend (Wed-Sun): 55 crores net
Lifetime Collections: 75 crores net
Overall Box Office Verdict: Average
I have read that apparently there are some excellent reviews so far for Kaabil (including from critics), but I have tried my best to not let that influence my analysis/predictions. I have written this analysis/predictions about the film largely from my own feelings and own perception as to how I feel the film will perform with the audience and at the box office.
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