How I accurately predicted the opening day of Befikre! - Page 5

Originally posted by: minu_8

Great work srkat!!!

Btw do people see IMDb rating for Hindi films??

I have looked at them for hw films but never for bw..

And I have realised it's not a good indicator for newly released films atleast.. lot of fake voting goes on to either increase or decrease the rating..

Originally posted by: srkat

A big THANK YOU to everyone who has been appreciative of my work!😃👍🏼Yes, lots of time, effort, and hard work goes into my predictions, and the appreciation that you all give makes it worth it! I have been trying for a long time to find a way to turn this into a money-making business online, but I haven't really been able to find a way yet. I almost got work with Indicine in 2015 after I told them about myself (I used my accurate 300 crore prediction of PK as an example), and they let me write a prediction for Akshay Kumar's film Baby, which I also predicted fairly accurately, but after that, I'm not sure why they didn't really get back to me...

So if anyone has any ideas about what I can do, please let me know! Keep in mind that I live in Canada!

@saymaF29 what you describe as me "showing off" is me actually providing insight for those who follow my predictions, including a fellow member rajranbirshashi who was wondering how I get the predictions. If you don't like my work, no one is holding a gun to your head to read it or enter these threads!😊

@ranbirrocks Thank you for your continuous support! My real name is Bobby, feel free to call me by my real name if you would like (I'm saying this to everyone reading as well!) The WOM is indeed on the negative side, but BOI says that the opening weekend is enough to take the film into the "plus" category (I think the film will be given "Average" verdict). To answer your other question, yes I've been wrong many times! I remember predicting Jab Tak Hai Jaan to do 160 crores with Blockbuster verdict, where in reality it ended up doing 120 crores with Hit verdict😆and yes, I did over-estimate ADHM's lifetime collection by a little, although my Hit verdict prediction was correct!

@Lilac_N_Maple I would put Tamasha's WOM in India in the Mixed-Negative category. The film was only liked by a very small section of the audience. Yes, Dangal is the next big film releasing, watch out for my prediction around December 18 as the film releases on December 23!

@Maroon 5.0 thanks bro! Ricky kaun?😆I'm Bobby😛

@Zulekakhan Thank you! The method I used to get Befikre's opening day isn't a method that I always use, but one that I will use more often. I recall using a similar method in the past to correctly predict the 7 crore opening of Tevar in 2015! Regarding using a blog to get noticed by production houses, would you be able to provide me some suggestions?

@cougartown yes, Befikre's trend is not good so far at the box office

@rajranbirshashi although I'm not taking mathematics at university, I am taking accounting, which of course have a connection! Even otherwise, I think about numbers a lot, especially when it comes to box office numbers. I am constantly calculating and all😆Thank you for your feedback, as usual!

@S_10 I think ranbirrocks explained quite a few reasons really well already, but in general I would say that one reason for Befikre not doing well overseas is because it was not a Aditya Chopra-SRK film. Instead, it is an Aditya-Ranveer film, which itself could've drawn audience too, but the audience would never be as big as it would be if it were Aditya-SRK which is what many overseas are attached to. Of course, it doesn't help that Befikre's theatrical trailer didn't get a good response, and even after the release of the film, it has seen negative WOM (IMDB rating is only 3.7/10!) Also, as someone else pointed out (it may have been on another forum), this is currently the final exam period (as a university student, I feel the pain!) and thus, these students which form a large part of the youth would not want to watch a film in theatres at this time!

@turqoisedress Yes I also noticed that Indicine has been predicting similar numbers as me for Befikre! I posted my 10.50 crore opening prediction and 58 crore lifetime prediction a couple of days before the film released, and then days later they posted their 10.50 crore opening prediction, and then their 58 crore lifetime prediction after the film released!

@NIKKII-KSG Hate Story 3 had a poor trend in India, as it started with a 9.72 crore opening day and finished with lifetime collection of just 51.69, a multiple of 5.32 from its opening day, which is poor. Using the Aamir Khan theory of opening weekend (26.82 crores) to lifetime multiplier, it's a multiplier of 1.93, which again, is poor. IMDB rating is 4.4/10, and bookmyshow rating is 6.5/10 (which is usually indicative of mixed WOM).

Originally posted by: NIKKII-KSG

I don't want to argue much about it! It finished with 55 crores actually and that is pretty good for a relatively smaller film in comparison to say movies of the khans! So that shows me that the movie actually had great word of mouth otherwise it wouldn't have been able to make so much! The cinema hall reactions and footfalls over the weekend also indicated positive WOM, anyway let's just agree to disagree! :)

Originally posted by: srkat

When looking at WOM, we always have to look at the trend of a film! The film had a good opening of 9.72 crores which made it easier for the film to reach a 51.69 crore lifetime, but when you analyze the trend (both from the opening day and weekend to it's lifetime collections) it was a poor trend, which means that the audience didn't appreciate the film, or at best, had a mixed WOM (as the BookMyShow rating may indicate). I don't want to argue either, just want to explain my point😊

Originally posted by: NIKKII-KSG

Ok I get ur POV!! Actually! To me a negative WOM means something like TIM BIN 2! But to u I think it means average WOM! So yeh I get you! HS3 had a great opening but things did spiral down a tad later!