Posted:
Alright, many have read my Befikre box office prediction thread and have acknowledged my correct opening day prediction for the film (http://www.india-forums.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=4762587). I predicted 10.5 crore opening day, and the actuals came in as 10.25 (BOI) and 10.36 (Taran Adarsh). I feel as if this is the time to explain how I predicted the opening, and it may catch you by surprise!
I would like to show everyone the opening day collections of big films released in the beginning of December, since 2011, in order of earliest December date to latest December date (for example, December 7, 2012 of Khiladi 786 is placed in order after December 6, 2013 of R Rajkumar because December 7 is an increased date from December 6).
The Dirty Picture (December 2, 2011): 9.54 crores
Hate Story 3 (December 4, 2015): 9.72 crores
Action Jackson (December 5, 2014): 10.25 crores
R Rajkumar (December 6, 2013): 10.20 crores
Khiladi 786 (December 7, 2012): 10.40 crores
Befikre (December 9, 2016): ???
Notice the pattern here? Each of these big films, with a similar release date, did in the region of 9-10 crores. But there is a more important pattern: as the date increases (December 2 to December 4 as an example), no matter which year it is, the collections either stay at a similar level or they increase! So, looking in that order, when I was predicting Befikre's opening day collection, I knew that it had to be above the 10.40 crores of Khiladi 786. Also, given the fact that all of these films in the list probably had their bulk of collections come from mass centres (as they were all massy films), I felt that Befikre would open higher than these films because it's a multiplex film, where revenues generated are higher, meaning higher collection. I knew there wouldn't be much variation from Khiladi 786's opening, because from the male lead films in the list, with all the male leads having at least some star power and all usually featuring in the Ormax Media top 10 popular male stars lists, they all opened at 10 crores, with a maximum variation of 20 lakhs (R Rajkumar opening to Khiladi 786 opening). And what number did I predict? You guessed it!
The Dirty Picture (December 2, 2011): 9.54 crores
Hate Story 3 (December 4, 2015): 9.72 crores
Action Jackson (December 5, 2014): 10.25 crores
R Rajkumar (December 6, 2013): 10.20 crores
Khiladi 786 (December 7, 2012): 10.40 crores
Befikre (December 9, 2016): 10.50 crores (my prediction), but the actual came out as 10.36 (Taran Adarsh)
As it turns out, Befikre (December 9) opening day collection was closest to the film that had the release date closest to it: Khiladi 786, which had a December 7 release date. Given the fact that Akshay Kumar is a bigger star than Ranveer Singh, Khiladi 786 naturally ended up being a bigger opener than Befikre, although just by a tiny bit.
So, there you have it! Befikre's opening was not affected by demonitization, or anything like that. Much like the other films in the list, it was a big film released in the beginning of December (which isn't a great time to release films anyway as the audience usually is awaiting the big Christmas release), and the film ended up getting a similar opening to the other films in the list. Ranveer Singh is a star, not a superstar, and hence, the comparison with the openings of the other films in the list of Shahid Kapoor, Ajay Devgan, and Akshay Kumar make for a pretty fair comparison.
Also, when looking at Befikre's lifetime collections, I thought about the fact that the lowest lifetime grossers from that list are Hate Story 3 and Action Jackson, both of which did 50+ crore lifetime collections. Both Action Jackson and Hate Story 3 had WOM tilting towards the negative side, but at least the latter was considered a success at the box office due to lower costs. I knew in my head that I would predict Befikre to be a Flop with negative WOM, so it was fair to compare it with Action Jackson, which took a 10 crore opening and finished with lifetime collections of 57.78. I felt that Befikre will have a slightly higher lifetime collection, which is why I predicted 58 crores.
Okay, so now that all of that is done, I now want to analyze the trend of Befikre at the box office, to give idea of where the film's lifetime collections are heading. A comparison needs to be made, and I will do that by comparing it with the other 10 crore openers!
Action Jackson (December 5, 2014): Day 1: 10.25 crores, Day 2: 8 crores crores
R Rajkumar (December 6, 2013): Day 1: 10.20 crores, Day 2: 9.50 crores
Khiladi 786 (December 7, 2012): Day 1: 10.40 crores, Day 2: 11.15 crores
Befikre (December 9, 2016): Day 1: 10.36 crores, Day 2: 11.60 crores
Befikre's trend seems to be similar to that of Khiladi 786, even better. Khiladi 786 had a mixed WOM and finished with 70 crore lifetime collections, so a 70 crore finish for Befikre can't be ruled out yet. However, to compare the trend of both of these films is a little unfair, as mass films (Khiladi 786) tend to not grow much and may even drop on day 2, whereas multiplex films (Befikre) usually show growth on day 2. A more fair comparison for Befikre would be another multiplex film that released last year in a similar release period (it came in end of November) and also had a 10 crore opening: Tamasha.
Tamasha (November 27, 2015): Day 1: 10.94 crores, Day 2: 13.17 crores
Befikre (December 9, 2016): Day 1: 10.36 crores, Day 2: 11.60 crores
It can be seen that Tamasha had a healthier trend, although that film itself have a mixed-to-negative WOM and showed drops in collections later to finish with lifetime collections of 67 crores. Befikre seems to be carrying negative WOM rather than mixed-to-negative (especially due to rejection by families whom are reportedly walking out of theatres), so at the moment, it seems my lifetime prediction of 58 crores may be accurate!
EDIT: I have a Twitter account which I haven't promoted too much, so here it is: don't forget to follow me on Twitter @srkat14! https://twitter.com/srkat14
3