Bajirao Mastaani To Find It Tough At The Box Office

Bajirao Mastaani will find it a tough struggle at the box office for two reasons, The first being its a clash against a big film and the second being a weak director who normally finds regional success which will not do with this huge budget. This regional success becomes an even bigger issue with a clash. Below are the ratios for Sanjay Leela Bhansali directed films for Mumbai circuit.

Khamoshi - 38.02%

Hum Dil De Chuke Sanam - 46.86%

Devdas - 31.27%

Black - 41.45%

Saawariya - 44.92%

Guzaarish - 40.16%

Goliyon Ki Raasleela Ram - Leela - 43.62%

All the films be it success or failure are lopsided in Mumbai circuit barring Devdas which has a normal ratio and that was due to the presence of Shahrukh Khan. There will be around 100 crore up for a grabs in Mumbai circuit for both films and even if Bajirao Mastaani does excellent and takes half of it, the normal 42.5% ratio of Sanjay Leela Bhansali films will mean a little over 100 crore nett business but that is with a 50/50 result in Mumbai, the numbers will be scary if the circuit goes in the favour of Dilwale. The result Bajirao Mastaani will really need is to beat Dilwale at least 60/40.

The pluses for Bajirao Mastaani are that there is a lot of hype with the clash in the media and this may have created more awareness for the film than had it come alone. So despite the content holding little interest in places like Delhi / UP, East Punjab and West Bengal initially, maybe awareness could help bring in respectable footfalls in these areas.

Another plus is basically by default as the film will not get the huge release in terms of multiplex screens and a smaller release can sometimes work in favor of films which are regional or more niche in content especially if word of mouth strikes.

The third is that it did pre book the better single screens with Bajrangi Bhaijaan in Delhi /UP and Maharashtra and this should help expecially in Maharashtra. In Delhi / UP it will be less effective as the directors films barring Devdas have never worked in Delhi / UP. In fact in UP, all have been big duds outside Devdas.

The film should manage to do well in Maharashtra, CP Berar and Marathawada side of Nizam though it is Gujarat that will be deciding factor for the film, if Dilwale goes the way all Rohit Shetty films go in Gujarat then the writing will be on the wall for Bajirao Mastaani as Mumbai circuit will not be up to the mark and with Gujarat not performing and its very unlikely that other areas can come to the rescue.