Posted:
I realize it's taken me quite long to write my predictions for this film, but I felt that if the makers can make delay in promoting their own movie, then why can't I take my sweet time in writing up my predictions for this film? 😆
Anyways, here it is!
Salman Khan. A phenomenon who is loved and worshipped all over India. He's been showing his superstardom for over 20 years, but his career reached it's major turning point in the last couple of years when he practically became a one-man-show at the box office (specifically from the years 2010-2012) breaking all sorts of records left-right-and-center.
It really all started in 2009. While one of the other three Khans (Aamir) that year was delivering one of the biggest Blockbusters in Hindi cinema history (3 IDIOTS), Salman did WANTED, which not only proved to be a box office success, but also helped shape up his Blockbuster run of films over the next few years in similar masala-style films. DABANGG, READY, BODYGUARD, EK THA TIGER, DABANGG 2...5 Back-to-Back Blockbusters!
However, things took a complete turn in 2013. Salman had no release. In the meantime, Shah Rukh Khan and Aamir Khan dominated the box office, with both CHENNAI EXPRESS and DHOOM 3 having 30+ crore opening days and doing lifetime business of over 200 crores (DHOOM 3 nearly reached the 300 crore mark!) Ranbir Kapoor also did a huge opening day with YEH JAWAANI HAI DEEWANI, an opening day that was almost at the same level as Salman's DABANGG 2, and YJHD did lifetime collections that were almost at the same level as Salman's biggest grosser: EK THA TIGER.
With SRK, Aamir, and maybe Hritikh (no one really knows if KRRISH 3 did 200+ crores business) all entering the 200 crore club, and Ranbir nearly making it with YJHD, all eyes were on Salman. EK THA TIGER, his biggest grosser, didn't enter the 200 crore club, and everyone's been waiting to see how long it takes for him to enter...
That's when JAI HO came and gave a shock to everyone. Opening day collection was about half of the opening days that SRK and Aamir got with CHENNAI EXPRESS and DHOOM 3 (hindi version) (both films did around 33 crores , while JAI HO did just about 17 crores). DHOOM 3 had lifetime collections of approx 285 crores, CHENNAI EXPRESS had approx 227 crores, and JAI HO had approx...116 crores.
To put it in short, the numbers of JAI HO seemed pathetic in front of the numbers that the other 2 Khans were delivering!
But each Khan has had an under-performer(s), only to rebound in a big way. Recall Aamir Khan's MANGAL PANDEY in 2005 not doing well, only for his two 2006 releases (RANG DE BASANTI and FANAA) to do extremely well at the box office. Recall a similar situation in 2012, when TALAASH under-performed, and then DHOOM 3 took the nation by the storm a year later.
Recall SRK, who was written off after Hritikh dominated the box office with KAHO NA PYAR HAI in 2000, only for SRK to make a comeback later that same year with MOHABATTEIN and later with major hits like KABHI KHUSHI KABHI GHAM, DEVDAS, VEER ZAARA, etc. He was written off again in 2006 after KANK/DON, while Hritikh was on the rise with the huge success of KRRISH and DHOOM 2, only for SRK to deliver the biggest Blockbuster of 2007 with OM SHANTI OM and another major hit that year CHAK DE INDIA. Again, SRK was written off after all his films from MY NAME IS KHAN to JAB TAK HAI JAAN were considered under-performers at the box office, only for him to deliver the biggest grosser of all time (at the time) in 2013 with CHENNAI EXPRESS.
KICK has generated tremendous curiosity amongst the public and in the industry. The Buzz immediately was felt when the theatrical trailer was released last month and got an OUTSTANDING response from all quarters,even emerging as the most liked Bollywood film trailer ever on YouTube!
KICK is the opposite of JAI HO in many ways. If JAI HO had low production values, then KICK has huge production values. If JAI HO lacked hit songs, then KICK has some chartbusting songs (ex. Jumme Ki Raat). If JAI HO's leading actress (Daisy Shah) was considered to be lacklustre, then KICK's leading actress (Jacqueline Fernandez) is considered to be hot and sexy and she has excited many. If JAI HO's supporting cast (consisting of Yash Tonk and others) was panned, then KICK's supporting cast (featuring actors like Randeep Hooda and Nawazuddin Siddiqui) is considered to be impressive. If JAI HO's director (Sohail Khan) is bashed by many, then KICK's director (Sajid Nadiadwala) is one that many have high hopes for to deliver a solid entertainer with KICK.
So, what else can be said? Salman fans, rejoice...KICK is going to be a HUGE Blockbuster!
There is no doubt about it that the opening of KICK will be earth-shattering. The huge buzz created by the theatrical trailer, the songs (especially Jumme Ki Raat which masses would love), Salman Khan in a film with huge production values in a grand-looking film, sexy heroine (Jacqueline Fernandez), etc will ensure a historic opening for the film. People are saying things like "Pre-eid and releasing during Ramadan will have negative effect on the film's opening". But seriously, India is a country dominated by Hindus, not Muslims. It's not as if we are talking about the opening collections of the film in Pakistan 😆 We are talking about India! Films released during pre-Diwali and Diwali day are affected a lot worse as many Hindu/others don't watch films at those times. Recall KRRISH 3, which did business of around 25 crores on it's first day during the pre-Diwali phase, when ideally the film could've done 30+ crores on it's opening day if released on a better day. If Hritikh's KRRISH 3 could do 25 crores on it's opening day (with pre-Diwali effect and lack of Hindus/others coming to theatres), then why can't KICK with arguably the biggest star in the country and with release period that will not prevent Hindus/others from coming, not do 30+ crores on it's opening day? Only muslims may not come to see it, but the rest of the country damn sure will!
Another thing I want to note is that from each year since 2010, the Eid release has broken the opening day record. DABANGG (2010), BODYGUARD (2011), EK THA TIGER (2012), CHENNAI EXPRESS (2013, producer's figures) all broke the opening day record. Sure, KICK is releasing before Eid, but I feel that at minimum the opening day will be at least on par with CHENNAI EXPRESS and DHOOM 3 (hindi version), both of which were also big-canvas high production films like KICK. I will say that I actually feel that KICK's opening day will be a bit better than both CHENNAI EXPRESS and DHOOM 3, because releasing a year later than both those films is advantageous due to factors like possibly having more screens (than those two films), more theatres probably have been built in India since last year, etc.
Lack of an A-list heroine won't have any bad effect on the film's opening collections. Sure, major openers like EK THA TIGER and DHOOM 3 had a major heroine like Katrina Kaif in it, but Jacqueline Fernandez has star-quality that will gain her a huge fan-base. Many would find Jacqueline to be sexy from the promos of KICK itself (especially from Jumme Ki Raat promo), and therefore the audience wouldn't miss Katrina Kaif. Also, the audience may still remember her sizzling avatar from MURDER 2 which gained her a fan following amongst masses.
So I will go with opening day prediction of 34 crores net. I will also go with this prediction because it means that it will do double the opening day business of JAI HO (which did 17 crores net). 34 crores net for KICK will make it a record for opening day of Bollywood films in Hindi version (KICK is only releasing in Hindi version as far as I know), but DHOOM 3 will still hold the overall opening day record because DHOOM 3 released in Hindi, Tamil, and Telegu versions to give it a combined total of 36 crores.
Opening is going to be fantastic at both multiplexes and single screens across India. A few places may affected by pre-rid phase/Ramadan, but as I said, I don't think the effect will be anything too bad.
Films like KICK with such hype and expectation usually do end up getting a Mixed WOM amongst the public (DHOOM 3 being an example). KICK also gives a very DHOOM 3-type vibe, with the grand look, Salman seems to be playing a somewhat evil character (similar to Aamir Khan who was villain in DHOOM 3). Yaar Na Mile song promo was also similar to DHOOM 3 title song promo they used to show, with the actress shown dancing and bits of action performed by the male lead played in the promo.
The original Telegu KICK film (2009) did well at the box office. Also, Chetan Bhagat is a screenplay writer of KICK (2014) and his work is always known to be appreciated, which makes it more likely for KICK (2014) to get positive WOM. Director Sajid Nadiadwala also seems to know the pulse of the audience, as he has produced a lot of Hits over the years and this year especially all his films he has produced have worked in some way (HIGHWAY was appreciated by some , HEROPANTI was a box office Hit, and 2 STATES was a Super Hit and entered the 100 crore club). Sajid Nadiadwala seems to know what the audience wants and as a director he will likely deliver a film that will entertain many with KICK. Masses would love the dialogues (such as "mere baare mein itna mat soch, dil mein aata hoon, samajh mein nahin" and "woh apni Eidi leine zaroor ayega"). Masses would also love the songs, mainly Jumme Ki Raat which I'm sure the masses will dance to in the theatres. Masses would also obviously love everything about Salman (including his grand action scenes). The scene where he bikes in front of the train, only to get off the bike and walk in front of the train in a calm manner would be greeted by thunderous whistles and claps by the audience! Audience will salivate for Jacqueline because many would find her sexy.
Jumme Ki Raat is already a big hit with the public it seems. Hangover, Yaar Na Miley, etc might be huge hits with the public too.
Sajid Nadiadwala seems to have made a universally-appealing film. Salman-Jacqueline will entertain both masses and classes (especially masses), while Nawazzuddin and Randeep would entertain classes. Chetan Bhagat's screenplay writing and the grand look/action of the film would also appeal to the classes.
Basically, almost everything about the film could appeal to every section of the audience!
KICK has two weeks of free run in theatres with no competition until ENTERTAINMENT starring Akshay Kumar releases on August 8. KICK has holidays (there is major Eid holiday a couple of days after KICK releases). However, if we compare between DHOOM 3 and KICK, DHOOM 3 also had holidays but had no major compeition for about a month (until JAI HO released) whereas KICK has competition just two weeks after it releases from ENTERTAINMENT. Also, DHOOM 3 had more stronger elements (superstar jodi of Aamir-Katrina, DHOOM franchise, arguably the biggest production house in India Yash Raj Films, etc) than KICK. KICK does have strong elements of its own no doubt (including chartbusting music which DHOOM 3 lacked), but overall DHOOM 3's strong elements outweigh KICK's strong elements.
Therefore, considering all factors from the previous paragraph, I don't think that KICK will beat the lifetime record of DHOOM 3. Having said that, I DO FEEL that KICK will become the second highest grosser of all time, beating CHENNAI EXPRESS/KRRISH (whichever film between the two that really is the second biggest grosser ever at the moment).
My Box Office Predictions for KICK:
Opening Day: 34 crores net
Opening 3-Day Weekend: 100 crores net
Lifetime Collections: 250+ crores net
Overall Box Office Verdict: All Time Blockbuster
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