My Box Office Predictions for Bajrangi Bhaijaan

Director Kabir Khan is back with Salman Khan after the two delivered a huge Blockbuster in the form of EK THA TIGER in 2012, which was the biggest grosser of 2012. EK THA TIGER was a Yash Raj Film and had a classier treatment as the film felt like a Hollywood film with its production values, style, etc. Even though EK THA TIGER did appeal to the masses as well, Bajrangi Bhaijaan is even more mass-appealing, right from the title of the film itself. The treatment of the film (seen from the promos), the Selfie song, etc show that Kabir Khan has made a film that is quite different from his own previous films. Each of his previous films had a more classy, Hollywood style treatment, whereas this time he seems to have made a Bollywood style masala film, a film that would cater in a huge way to hardcore Salman Khan fans.

Salman Khan, the action scenes, the India-Pakistan scenes and dialogues (such as when Salman bangs his hand on his head upon learning that the little girl Harshaali is from Pakistan and needs to be sent back there), the songs (especially the Selfie song that has already become popular), the comedy scenes, dramatic scenes, Kareena Kapoor, and Harshaali (audience will sympathize with her and probably find her cute), the emotional scenes, are all elements of the film that will work with the masses/single screen audience.

The story of the film is what will make the film connect with the multiplex audience. The multiplex audience will probably like the story of the film, and they will also like Kabir Khan's direction who in the past has impressed the multiplex audience with his films. The "Zindagi Kuch Toh Bata" song promo that released recently was directed in a way that would appeal to the multiplex audience (gave a vibe of the acclaimed multiplex film HIGHWAY) and that means that there is more in the film as well that would also appeal to the multiplex audience. The multiplex audience would also enjoy other elements such as Salman Khan, Kareena Kapoor, Harshaali, the emotional scenes, comedy scenes, etc.

In terms of opening day collection, the film is not looking at having a record-breaking opening day because the film is releasing Pre-Eid, a period which causes some dent for film business. According to Box Office India, BAAHUBALI is retaining the good collecting cinemas in South and will cause BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN to close some good collecting single screens. However, as also said by BOI, the loss will be around 1 crore, which as we know is not a big matter. As some people have already mentioned, BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN can get a lift in collections on evening/night shows of Friday due to the fact that the next day (Saturday) is the Eid holiday. The film will have a better opening day than KICK, which also released pre-Eid, as this film has a more popular heroine than KICK (Kareena Kapoor in this film), Kabir Khan being more recognized as a director than Sajid Nadiadwala was before KICK (Nadiadwala never directed a Bollywood film before that), potentially higher ticket prices for this film, and the boost that this film will get in the evening/night shows. This film will record phenomenal collections on Saturday, potentially in the 40+ crore range.

I have already talked about the WOM (Word of Mouth) that the film will have amongst the different type of audiences (particularly single screen and multiplex audience), but I will summarize it here. The single screen/masses will love the film. The multiplex/class audience will find the film to be a decent/good film, although they won't enjoy it as much as the single screen audience. The advantage is that both men and women can enjoy the film: the men would enjoy the film for action scenes and other factors, whereas the women would enjoy the film for the emotions in the film,especially the emotional scenes involving Harshaali, a girl that many women would feel is adorable (even men would feel the same way). Of course, men and women both would also enjoy other big factors, such as Salman Khan and Kareena Kapoor.

Masses, classes, single screens, multiplexes, metros, big cities, big centres, small centres, small towns...the film will work across India!

Having said all that, I strongly feel that BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN will not cross the lifetime collections of PK (highest grosser right now) and DHOOM 3 (second highest grosser right now) in India. PK had superb WOM and had 3 open weeks, whereas BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN will have a strong WOM but definitely not as strong WOM as PK and may be dented by competition from BAAHUBALI (mostly in South) and having only 2 open weeks before Ajay Devgan's DRISHYAM releases. DHOOM 3 had extraordinary pre-release hype, a grand scale to the film that would attract huge audience (the film had a record-breaking 36 crore opening day, all language versions, on a non-holiday!) and 3 open weeks, whereas BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN doesn't have that level extraordinary hype and neither does it have that grand scale that would attract as much audience as DHOOM 3 (this applies more so amongst the multiplex audience who tend to be more willing to pay for their movie ticket when they see that a lot of money has been spent on the film in terms of production values, which justifies the high prices of their ticket as this audience then feels that they can get their money worth).

BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN will be a bigger lifetime grosser than KICK though, as each Eid release since 2010 has seen better lifetime collections than the Eid release the year before (all of those Eid releases have been Salman starrers except for SRK's CHENNAI EXPRESS). BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN will also be a bigger lifetime grosser than KICK because more popular heroine and director as compared to KICK (Kabir was especially more known/popular as a director than Nadiadwala before KICK as Nadiadwala never directed a film before that).

My Box Office Predictions for BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN:

Opening Day: 30 crores

Opening Weekend: 100+ crores

Lifetime Collections: 250 crores

Overall Box Office Verdict: Blockbuster

It is not less than Kick. Kick did around 230 crores.

Ajay's Drishyam can affect BB if Drishyam gets strong WOM.

Because there are only 2 open weeks for BB and because it's WOM won't be as strong as PK which is the only film so far to do above 300 crores! The WOM of BB will be strong but not as strong as PK's WOM.

You read it wrong 😆 I said the WOM of BB will be strong, but not as strong as the WOM that PK had that got the film to go above the 300 crore mark. BB's WOM won't be as strong as PK, which is why BB won't cross the 300 crore mark. Also, if Drishyam has strong WOM, then it will also dent the collections of BB.

It's a known fact that Rajkumar Hirani films have best WOM...I don't even know why this needs to be discussed. What do you mean "just coz it's Salman movie & PK was Aamir's movie"?