Big star films cannot make money if released on big holidays

A film's release date is one of the most important and yet, the most variable factor in the life of a filmmaker. Before we discuss the implications on a filmmaker due to lack of sufficient time to run his film at the box office, we look at the Maths of it

Informal norm currently followed
In the past, it has often been the expectation within the film industry that

a) Whoever announces their film first on a particular date should come on that date and the others should not compete with them, since they have an informal propriety over that date at least in their minds.

b) No small film should come along with a big star film.

The outcome of the Maths
Given the above Maths, we expect the following changes to kick in the future to make a financially healthier film industry.

1) Free-for-all release date market based on filmmaker's confidence in his/her film and not based on who announced the date first
Much like in any other industry, the most confident films should stay on a date and the others should move. It should be a free-for-all release date market. This means that irrespective of when you announce your film, if your film is ready and a filmmaker wants to come on a particular date, he should come. Just because someone has announced a date before you does not mean that another filmmaker cannot come. Thus, the better release dates will automatically go to the film whose filmmaker is most confident about his product. This will help improve the box office numbers. The whole system of the more powerful filmmakers occupying and announcing dates years in advance should not restrict another filmmaker wanting to come on a Super Special or any other Friday.

2) Small films will gain from coming on big dates
According to conventional wisdom, if a big star film is coming, smaller filmmakers have often got scared and not come on big dates. We feel that in contrast to conventional wisdom, if smaller films were to come on bigger dates even though against big stars, they will gain so far, as they have differentiated content from that big star film. There are different audiences and thus everybody does not want to see the standard entertainer coming on a big day. For instance, a Haider gained and took away over 50 crores of box office revenues by coming with superstar Hrithik Roshan's film Bang Bang as it had completely differentiated content. Likewise, Dolly Ki Doli will gain by coming with Baby as despite Baby, likely to be great content, will cater to a more serious audience as against the younger mind set audience that wants to go and see a film that is a light-hearted entertainer.

3) Big star films should compete with each other to know the REAL star power of each star versus the other.
In Bollywood, films of two big stars don't release together as a result of which we are not able to evaluate true star power. There are big days like Diwali when in the past (Jab Tak Hai Jaan and Son Of Sardaar) two big films have done well as the market potential is large at such times. Going forward, due to restricted number of Super Special Fridays available, we will see more and more stars compete with each other and that is the only time we can conclusively define each of their star powers. If you had any two Khans coming out on the same date that is when actually you can test who the real box office king is.

4) Big star films cannot make money if released on big holidays
This year Jai Ho, Kick, Singham Returns, Bang Bang and Happy New Year released on special Fridays and Entertainment, Happy Ending, Action Jackson released on normal Fridays. Clearly, the films which released on special days made money and the ones that released on normal days lost money (barring the exception of the hit film Holiday that released on a non-special Friday). The implication is clear. Given how high the big star cost is in the making of the film and how the Indian audiences are clearly evolving, it is imperative for these high-cost entertainers to come on special Fridays. When a big film loses money, barring the big star, everybody loses money, be it the producer, distributor, exhibitor and that places a big strain on the filmmaking and distribution ability. It is time filmmakers re-looked at their budgets and content to see whether it is actually viable at the box office.

5) Filmmakers should stop producing small films with poor content
We need to stop making small films with poor content that not only lack star power, but also have terrible content that is not even watchable. There are umpteen examples of such films made this year. Once these films are made, they need to be released and that puts undue pressure on the eco-system of the industry, leading to a loss of money for all concerned, be it the producer, distributor or the exhibitor. We need to make lesser but better films.

Total weeks available in a year: 52 Bad weeks for release of any film: 17 weeks (4 weeks in March for exams, 6 weeks of IPL, 4 weeks of Ramzan, 3 weeks of Shradh). Balance weeks left: 35 Super Special weekends: 5 (Republic Day, Eid, Independence Day, Diwali, Christmas) Total films made in Bollywood: 120 Thus, on an average, 3-4 films need to be released per week.