My Observation of DUNKI's box office: WOM and lifetime collections!

srkat thumbnail
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Posted: 6 months ago

Parts of my Dunki prediction were accurate. I predicted a 20 cr nett opening, and the opening ended up being in the 20 cr range (28 cr nett).

I predicted that the film would have extremely negative WOM. The initial public WOM was indeed negative.

But, a few parts of the prediction have gone wrong!

I predicted 94 cr lifetime. That lifetime has been crossed on the FOURTH DAY itself 😅🤣

Also, the WOM is not outright negative as it initially seemed. The WOM is MIXED (AVERAGE), similar to films such as Tiger 3 and Brahmastra.

Initially, there were videos from Mumbai's Gaiety Galaxy, with men coming out of the film and criticizing it. Thats where it seemed like negative WOM.

But, I watched a video yesterday from the same theatre, where a bunch of KIDS were coming out (probably some screening held for them) and they loved the film!

Again, this is similar to Brahmastra: youth rejection of the film leading to low collections on weekdays, but appreciation from the family audience on the weekends, leading to better collections on the weekends!

Komal Nahta had also mentioned something similar I believe about how Dunki will get appreciation from family audience on weekends. Sunday has seen a good jump to reach the 29-30 cr mark.

So, observing the current trend, I feel that the lifetime collections of Dunki in India will be around the 225 cr nett mark. 

I'm not entirely sure of the economics: the budget is around 80 cr, but I'm not aware of the price the film was sold to distributors at. So I'm uncertain about the recovery of the distributors.

With that said, I feel that 225 cr will be enough to atleast get the film to a box office Verdict of HIT!

This is rather shocking to me, as I've felt that content films usually have no middle ground. A big action film can have middle ground, such as Tiger 3 doing random lifetime collections of around 270 cr nett (or whatever it was) and HIT verdict. But I felt that content-oriented films, such as Dunki, either tend to go sky high (ATBB) or become zero (just like the film with the same name 🤣).

Here, Dunki is going to achieve that middle ground, as the film is not gonna be the All Time Blockbuster that many wanted it to be, but the film is also not gonna be the box office disaster that I predicted it to be. It will ended up in the middle with a potential HIT verdict.

Also, Please please note....this is NOT me changing my prediction! My original prediction is the only one, and that was me predicting lifetime collections of 94 cr nett in India. So if you want to make fun of me or abuse me for going wrong, please do so for my lifetime prediction of 94 cr nett 😁😃

225 cr nett and HIT verdict is just me observing based on the box office trend/WOM I am seeing of the film so far!!


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I_M_SultaN thumbnail
Posted: 6 months ago

ruk jata bhai tuesday ka trend dekh leta

srkat thumbnail
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Posted: 6 months ago

Originally posted by: I_M_SultaN

ruk jata bhai tuesday ka trend dekh leta

225 cr lag raha hai bhai...baaki dekhte hai kya hota hai smiley36

I_M_SultaN thumbnail
Posted: 6 months ago

Originally posted by: srkat

225 cr lag raha hai bhai...baaki dekhte hai kya hota hai smiley36

170-200 lagraha mjhe tuesday will cnfrm  

Posted: 6 months ago

I don't want to make any predictions from here on, Exactly reverse happening in Dunki and Salaar case Or i should just go with the opposite of what my sixth sense says about BO from here on. 

Posted: 6 months ago

I am Happy that SRK fandom is having the taste of their own created bash in past for other stars smiley36

Before Pathaan & after Jawan, the lottery star who had some success which only lasted from Jan 25 to Dec 21.

TM you were the only one who could see this film's underperformance before it's release, this no one anticipated coz Hirani made impeccable impression from his past work, plus Khan Saab was coming off a rocking 2 film success. 

I believe you have strong sense of prediction, keep it up, it will get better by each film.

-raVen- thumbnail
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Posted: 6 months ago

220 should be a superhit because of the budget lol, Tiger 3 is 260 at the budget of 300+ and apparently a "HIT" smiley36

Maroonporsche thumbnail
Posted: 6 months ago

Let’s see till Tuesday collections 

cougarTown thumbnail
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Posted: 6 months ago

225cr on a 120cr budget makes it a CLEAN HIT!! 


Tbh 225cr lifetime for a social drama like dunki is pretty darn good..i really hope it does that number or else we will only be seeing big stars doing action

cherry_fan thumbnail
Posted: 6 months ago

Originally posted by: Maroonporsche

Let’s see till Tuesday collections 

but why wait till Thursday though? 

Edited by cherry_fan - 6 months ago