My Box Office Predictions for Mohenjo Daro

From there on, he has been apart of several major box office successes: KABHI KHUSHI KABHI GHAM, KOI MIL GAYA, and then reached the peak of his superstardom in 2006 with two huge Blockbusters: KRRISH and DHOOM 2 (which at the time broke the 5-year lifetime record of Sunny Deol's GADAR). JODHAA AKBAR, ZINDAGI NA MILEGI DOBARA, AGNEEPATH, KRRISH 3 are some of his other major successes at the box office.

After 2 years, Hritikh makes his return on the big screen. Sure, his last release BANG BANG did underperform (but was a fairly big grosser, nontheless), but the curiosity would always be there for a Hritikh film after 2 years.

Or, would there?

Let's face facts. The buzz for MOHENJO DARO is disturbingly low. For a Hritikh Roshan film. For his comeback with director Ashutosh Gowariker after JODHAA AKBAR. For a big Independence Day period release.

What is the reason for that? The first and foremost reason, has to be the first piece that came out: the dull theatrical trailer. While watching the trailer, what struck me the most is the fact that Hritikh Roshan seemed uncharismatic here. Dull. His look in the film is a huge put-off, because rather than a superstar, he comes across looking like a low-level star with that clothes and appearance. For JODHAA AKBAR, the hype was there because Hritikh's look was right, he had Aishwarya Rai as a co-star, along with other factors. Here's, the heroine is a new face, and as I said, Hritikh's look in the film is not appealing. As a matter of fact, the last Hritikh's look had no appeal for the majority of the audience must have GUZAARISH, and it is no coincidence that this is probably Hritikh's film with the lowest amount of buzz since GUZAARISH! (albeit, it is carrying more buzz than that film).

The whole look thing aside, the trailer and promos have failed to create a "wow" factor for the public. The film carries a very plain vibe, with nothing extra-ordinary. The flying crocodile scene in the first trailer of the film has been ridiculed by many. The second trailer of the film did impress me a little more both with Hritikh's acting and look-wise, but it a short trailer. The songs have not really seemed to pick up either with listeners. The film is really missing that gloss factor, something that was evidently there in another recent period film BAJIRAO MASTANI as the film really felt extravagant and of a bigger scale.

Many have also made the complaint that they were expecting the film's story to be more based on Mohenjo Daro site, the way of living, and more such elements related to it's history. However, the film seems to be based on the age-old story of the hero (Hritikh) falling in love with the daughter of a villain, and the conflict that ensues, which has caused many to express disappointment.

Opening-wise, there will be a huge difference between the opening day collection of MOHENJO DARO and BANG BANG. BANG BANG had a national holiday, smaller competition (Shahid Kapoor's HAIDER), superstar Katrina Kaif as the female lead, chartbusting music, and a very sizzling, attractive, and action-packed look to the film on a big scale. MOHENJO DARO is missing most of these elements, and has bigger competition in the form of Akshay Kumar's RUSTOM, that too on a non-holiday opening day. I feel that the opening day will be about half (Hindi versions only) that of Hritikh's recent big openers BANG BANG, KRRISH 3, and AGNEEPATH. KRK has made note of the advance booking not being strong, but that is to be expected at this point.

I do remember reading someone's comment online (it may have been on this forum!) about how this film can possibly appeal to the family audience, which I can see as a possibility (especially towards kids). However, I feel that the youth will outright reject this film. Overall, I feel that the WOM (Word of Mouth) in India will range from mixed-to-negative. I actually came across an article online recently about how JODHAA AKBAR itself was mostly saved at the box office due to it's collections overseas, and it reminded me of a public feedback video (filmed in India) for the film that I saw back in 2008 when the film released, in which one viewer talked about falling asleep while watching the film! The film didn't work at some small centers as well, although the box office trend was decent and the film was a box office success, but I do feel there was somewhat of a mixed WOM for that film too. If viewers feel that MOHENJO DARO pales in comparison to JODHAA AKBAR (which most probably already have the vibe of), then MOHENJO DARO may be in big trouble.

There has been a lot of news about how 60 crores (through satellite, music, etc) have aleady been recovered for the producers of the total 115 crore investment (these are all estimates, with no official confirmation). This means that another 55 crores need to be recovered from theatrical revenue, and for the producer's to get that share, the film would need to collect approximately 110 crores (from Indian net+overseas gross, combined) to recover the investment. That number is achievable, but there's another side to this: the price at which the film is sold to distributors in India. Rohit Jaiswal from the trade has said that the film has been sold in India for 80 crores. According to him, the film would need to collect approx. 140 crores net in India to get that 80 crore share for distributor UTV, which would recover the investment for UTV and other individual distrubutors. Unfortunately, I don't see this film collecting anywhere near 140 crores net in India, which means that there will be heavy losses for UTV and possibly for other individual distributors as well.

There is the Independence Day national holiday on Monday, but MOHENJO DARO will have limited growth or no growth in collections that day for three reasons: the day before is also a holiday (Sunday), competition from Rustom, and most importantly, the mixed-to-negative WOM that the film is going to carry. As a matter of fact, MOHENJO DARO Monday Independence collections will likely be less than that of Sunday, as even a film with strong WOM like BABY had lower Monday Republic Day colllection compared to Sunday due to dip during the night shows (Tuesday was a working day). MOHENJO DARO does have some other holidays in its run (such as Raksha Bandan) but I don't think the film will be able to take advantage of it due to content rejected by the majority.

My Box Office Predictions for Mohenjo Daro:

Opening Day: 12 crores net

Opening 4-Day Extended Weekend (Friday to Monday): 55 crores net

Lifetime Collections: 85 crores net

Overall Box Office Verdict: Flop

Some people feel that the film may surpass BOMBAY VELET to become the biggest big-budget dud in Hindi cinema history. Although I see MOHENJO DARO failing at the box office, I don't think that it will be as big of a box office disaster as BOMBAY VELVET, as here there won't be any heavy loss (if any) for the producers. The losses will be moreso for the distributors.

EDIT: It doesn't help the film's cause that director Ashutosh Gowariker's last two films KHELEIN HUM JEE JAAN SE and WHAT'S YOUR RASHEE bombed badly at the box office. Also, when a director from an older era has directed a superstar for a film in the 2010s, it has sometimes lead to underperformance at the box office (JAB TAK HAI JAAN, PREM RATAN DHAN PAYO are examples). Those films had mixed WOM and were atleast saved by Diwali period to become Hits, whereas here there is only one holiday and possibly negative WOM.

I will in a couple of hours 😊

Looking forward to read Rustom's prediction.