Posted:
Now that Hemachandra is out of the contest, I think Vinit has improved
his chances of pulling off a win.
The conventional wisdom is that Debojit, being the highest vote-getter
for the last 2 weeks in a row, has the clear advantage because of his
energized fan base in the Seven Northeastern states to which he will add
some at least of Hemachandra's supporters (especially the ones who are
voting purely on the music).
However, I disagree.
In the semi-finals, the 3 contestants were dividing the voter base.
If we divide the voting base into
a) contestants' fans (driven by contestant's personality) ,
b) genuine music lovers (driven purely by musical talent/performance)
c)son-of-the-soil voters
- each of the contestants has fans in each category. Hema's main voting
base, I will guess, comes from gp b), next from a), and least from c). (As
we have heard, SRGMP is not that well followed in the South, so chances
for him to attract a huge regional base are less)
I will guess that the order in Debo's case is most from c), next from b)
and least from a)
For Vinit, the order is likely to be primarily a) (the teenyboppers or baccha
brigade if you like who are rabid Vinit fans)
After Hema's elimination, I believe his 3 segments of voters will be
disinterested. Hema's a) & c) voters are likely to be gone.
The b) voters for all 3 singers (ie the music enthusiasts) are llikely to be
disinterested as well.
I think some of them will simply drop out of the voting segment. If I am
right, THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO HURT DEBOJIT THAN VINIT in my model,
since this population represents a larger proportion of Debojit's base.
Even if we assume the remainder of Hema's b) voters - the ones who take
the trouble to vote in this round - will be split between Debo and Vinit,
when I model it, VINIT COMES OUT EVEN to slightly ahead.
If this is the case, the contest will be decided by debojit's regional fan
base and the bacche jo vinit peh marte hain.
No doubt Debojit has a motivated fan base. However, Vinit's fans have
probably been energised by recent rumors of his possible ouster.
On the other hand, Debo's supporters have been successful at topping
the vote consistently the last 2 weeks of the contest. There is a greater
chance of them relaxing a bit. Further, there is greater risk of their votes
being the casualty of cut connections and the like.
IF DEBO'S BASE BECOMES COMPLACENT, VINIT has more than an even
chance of winning it all. :(
That's my analysis... waddyall think??
[PS Notice how our conversations on this show continue to veer far and
wide away from music!! )
his chances of pulling off a win.
The conventional wisdom is that Debojit, being the highest vote-getter
for the last 2 weeks in a row, has the clear advantage because of his
energized fan base in the Seven Northeastern states to which he will add
some at least of Hemachandra's supporters (especially the ones who are
voting purely on the music).
However, I disagree.
In the semi-finals, the 3 contestants were dividing the voter base.
If we divide the voting base into
a) contestants' fans (driven by contestant's personality) ,
b) genuine music lovers (driven purely by musical talent/performance)
c)son-of-the-soil voters
- each of the contestants has fans in each category. Hema's main voting
base, I will guess, comes from gp b), next from a), and least from c). (As
we have heard, SRGMP is not that well followed in the South, so chances
for him to attract a huge regional base are less)
I will guess that the order in Debo's case is most from c), next from b)
and least from a)
For Vinit, the order is likely to be primarily a) (the teenyboppers or baccha
brigade if you like who are rabid Vinit fans)
After Hema's elimination, I believe his 3 segments of voters will be
disinterested. Hema's a) & c) voters are likely to be gone.
The b) voters for all 3 singers (ie the music enthusiasts) are llikely to be
disinterested as well.
I think some of them will simply drop out of the voting segment. If I am
right, THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO HURT DEBOJIT THAN VINIT in my model,
since this population represents a larger proportion of Debojit's base.
Even if we assume the remainder of Hema's b) voters - the ones who take
the trouble to vote in this round - will be split between Debo and Vinit,
when I model it, VINIT COMES OUT EVEN to slightly ahead.
If this is the case, the contest will be decided by debojit's regional fan
base and the bacche jo vinit peh marte hain.
No doubt Debojit has a motivated fan base. However, Vinit's fans have
probably been energised by recent rumors of his possible ouster.
On the other hand, Debo's supporters have been successful at topping
the vote consistently the last 2 weeks of the contest. There is a greater
chance of them relaxing a bit. Further, there is greater risk of their votes
being the casualty of cut connections and the like.
IF DEBO'S BASE BECOMES COMPLACENT, VINIT has more than an even
chance of winning it all. :(
That's my analysis... waddyall think??
[PS Notice how our conversations on this show continue to veer far and
wide away from music!! )
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