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After a ton of controversy related to the censor board, UDTA PUNJAB finally releases in theatres this week.
I feel that the film will be well-appreciated by the multiplex audience. Some of the performances will find themselves a nomination at award shows, including Shahid Kapoor who may get nominated for Best Actor award at Filmfare after winning for HAIDER in 2014.
Having said that, the film does have its limitations. The feel deals with drugs issue in Punjab. A film based on drugs would not appeal to everyone, and a film based on Punjab would not appeal to many outside of Punjab in the rest of India. Also, the film has an A certificate, which would further restrict its box office prospects.
The film will find appreciation with the multiplex-frequenting youth in Delhi and Punjab, and I believe that's what will help the film gain success at the box office. Director Abhishek Chaubey does have a mixed track record, with ISHQIYA trending well due to solid WOM (Word of Mouth) and emerging a box office success whereas DEDH ISHQIYA had limited appreciation and didn't trend too well.
Abhishek Chaubey's previous films as a director in terms of their box office trending:
ISHQIYA (2010): 28.55 (lifetime collections) /9.33 (opening weekend)=3.06 (GOOD)
DEDH ISHQIYA (2014): 27.50 (lifetime collections)/12 (opening weekend)=2.29 (BELOW AVERAGE)
Nonetheless, I do see UDTA PUNJAB clicking with the youth in North India. Collections outside of North India won't be strong, especially mass centres/single screens where the film will be outright rejected.
The opening of the film should be good, not just because of the extra publicity the film has gotten, but also because of the strong face value (Shahid, Kareena, Alia, and Diljit, who is extremely popular in Punjab). Kareena herself got a 7 crore opening with the A-ceritificate film HEROINE back in 2012, and now 4 years later with other stars along with her, this film's opening day should be a lot bigger. Also, the curiosity to see Kareena and Shahid in the same film (even though they may have no scene together in the film) would be huge amongst the audience. The director's last film DEDH ISHQIYA in 2014 took a 3 crore opening, and UDTA PUNJAB could see opening day collections that are greater by approximately 10 crores more than that film.
Opening Day: 11 crores net
Opening Weekend: 35-40 crores net
Lifetime Collections: 75+ crores net
Overall Box Office Verdict: Hit
If I am correct, the highest grossing Adult film so far that has been geared towards the urban audience is DELHI BELLY (which also had a northern title). That film did over 50 crores net in 2011, and I feel that UDTA PUNJAB will surpass those collections.
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