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I got busy due to University stuff and as I speak, I'm supposed to wake up in about 5 hours if I am to attend my first class on time 😆 My eyes have been burning last hour or so, I need sleep, but here I am to do some box office predictions! Okay so here it goes.
It was in 2009 that actor Shahid Kapoor and director Vishal Bhardwaj got together to do the film KAMINEY. The film turned out to be fairly successful at the box office. This film continued Shahid Kapoor's winning streak at the time because after some huge box office successes (such as VIVAH and JAB WE MET), he now had another successful film. With KAMINEY, he was also nominated for the Best Actor award at Filmfare.
Now 5 years later, the actor-director duo re-unite for a modern-day adaptation of Hamlet with a film named HAIDER.
Expectations are big from HAIDER. Not only does it mark the return of the actor-director duo Shahid Kapoor and Vishal Bhardwaj, it also marks the return of Shahid Kapoor on screen after his last film R RAJKUMAR which worked well at the box office. Also, the film also marks the return of Shradda Kapoor on screen after two major box office successes with AASHIQUI 2 and EK VILLAIN. Other notable actors such as Irrfan Khan and Tabu are also in the film.
The theatrical trailer received a positive response. The national holiday opening day and 5 day-extended weekend are like icing on the cake.
BUT, for as many positives that there, there are perhaps equally as many negative factors!
One problem, and definitely the biggest problem, is that this film is clashing with BANG BANG, a film that features two of the biggest superstars in India (Hritikh and Katrina) who are coming off huge Blockbusters KRRISH 3 and DHOOM 3 respectively. Everything works in BANG BANG's favor: the superstars, the grand scale, the music, the entertainment factor, etc. HAIDER on the other hand is quite the opposite, with a very dark type of vibe for the film that really reduces its appeal to being very limited for the Indian audience.
There are different reports on the screen count that HAIDER will get, as I've read numbers ranging from 1000 to 1600 on different websites. It could be more or could be less, as there doesn't seem to be anything officially said yet. I personally feel that HAIDER can have a good opening day at multiplexes of cities as the film holds appeal for the multiplex audience. However, due to the dark style of the film, the masses of India will not go to see this film and will watch BANG BANG instead. KAMINEY back in 2009 collected around 6 crores (according to Indicine) on it's opening day, so HAIDER releasing 5 years later should definitely collect more than 6 crores. Also, Vishal Bhardwaj's Flop film MATRU KI BIJLEE KA MANDOLA which released in 2013 collected around 6 crores (according to BOI) on it's opening day and that film had lack of pre release buzz, so HAIDER which has better buzz and national holiday can collect better even though it is clashing with BANG BANG. The opening day of HAIDER will find it tough to match the opening day of R RAJKUMAR (approx 8.75 crores according to BOI) as that film held much more wider appeal for the Indian audience and it seems it released on more screens as well. The opening day collection of HAIDER will be about 25% of BANG BANG's opening day collection, I feel.
The Word of Mouth for the film will be mixed. On one hand, a small section of the audience (similar audience as those who enjoyed KAMINEY) will love this adaptation of Hamlet. The film will only be appreciated by the multiplex audience, but even amongst the multiplex audience there will be mixed WOM with some loving the film and others not quite being gung-ho about the film. The film seems to have lots of violence and that could turn off the multiplex audience. The violence and sensual scenes between Shahid and Shraddha will turn off the family audience, so really the film is only left with the multiplex-frequenting youth to help the film do well at the box office. The film is so dark that it seems to lack repeat value (repeat value is based on the audience that comes to watch the film a second time, third time, etc). Another huge problem for the film is the LENGTH, which is nearly 2 hours and 40 minutes! Such a long running time for such a dark and intense film is not a good idea and will further reduce the repeat value. Lack of hit songs would also reduce repeat value further. With such lack of repeat value, the film will start to show huge drops in its box office collections after the initial 5 day weekend.
One thing that HAIDER really has in its favor is Shahid Kapoor's performance. From the promos of the film, many have felt that he seems to have given an award-worthy performance in this film, and he may sweep many of the Best Actor awards at award shows, or at least get nominated! The appreciation that this film will receive from a section of the audience will largely be based on Shahid Kapoor's performance.
HAIDER has low costs and according to reports (and Shahid Kapoor himself) the film could easily recover its costs. One box office website has said that if HAIDER collects around 50 crores it will be in the safety zone as the film has a small budget and both Shahid Kapoor and Vishal Bhardwaj have not charged anything for the film. I feel that the film will do good business over the 5 day weekend and that will help the film to recover costs. Other non-theatrical revenues (satellite rights, etc) would also help the film to recover costs and perhaps make some profits as well.
The lifetime collections of HAIDER will be higher than KAMINEY (which collected in the 40+ crore range back in 2009). It remains to be seen if HAIDER can collect as much as R RAJKUMAR which collected in the 60+ crore range, but the extended 5 day weekend and the three week window until another big film releases (HAPPY NEW YEAR) gives it a chance, although the problem of clashing with BANG BANG is still there for HAIDER.
My Box Office Predictions for HAIDER:
Opening Day: 7 crores
Opening 5 Day Weekend (Thursday to Monday): 35 crores
Lifetime Collections: 55 crores
Overall Box Office Verdict: Semi-Hit
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