My Box Office Predictions for HOLIDAY

Flash forward two years later, as I write my box office predictions for Akshay-Sonakshi starred HOLIDAY. This time though, things seem colder. Whereas the buzz for ROWDY RATHORE felt garam due to it's promos being appreciated and the songs being chartbusters, the buzz for HOLIDAY feels thanda. The theatrical trailer of HOLIDAY lacked fire and came across as being somewhat boring. It felt like the type of Akshay film that wouldn't be a huge grosser at the box office with a SPECIAL 26 kind of vibe. The Akshay-Sonakshi pairing is being repeated YET AGAIN, after ROWDY RATHORE, JOKER, ONCE UPON A TIME IN MUMBAI DOBARA, their song together in BOSS, and Sonakshi doing a song with Akshay in Akshay's production OH MY GOD. The villain didn't really create much spark either with the audience it seems. The songs haven't generated much buzz either.

HOLIDAY is a serious test for Akki. Since JOKER, all of his films where has had the lead role under-performed at the box office (barring SPECIAL 26, which did the business that it was able to given it's limited appeal and was a decent success). All of his films since JOKER (including SPECIAL 26) have done, at maximum, in the 70 crore range for it's lifetime collections, forget the 100 crore mark. This is a huge problem for Akshay Kumar. Given that he is one of the biggest films stars in India, it is essential that his films do similar business or more as his contemporaries. But whereas stars like Shah Rukh Khan and Aamir Khan have films recently that have crossed the 200 crore mark (Aamir's DHOOM 3 almost touched 300 crores!), Akshay's films pale in comparison at the box office doing business in the 60/70 crore range. HOLIDAY needs to collect a huge lifetime total in order for Akshay to retain his spot without losing it early to future superstars like Ranveer Singh and Arjun Kapoor. Akshay's spot amongst the top 5/6 big stars of Bollywood could be lost to them quickly if his next films under-perform as well.

Even though it is quite evident that there is not much buzz for HOLIDAY and that many don't even talk about the film, the film has two aces that could greatly help it's box office collections. One ace is the post-IPL release date (the first week of June). Every film that has released during this period since the start of this decade has done wonderful film at the box office, with RAJNEETI (2010), READY (2011), ROWDY RATHORE(2012), and YEH JAWAANI HAI DEEWANI(2013) all becoming major hits, the latter 3 films reached Blockbuster status. All four films mentioned were amongst the top 3/4 highest grossers of their respective years. This gives HOLIDAY a chance to be the fourth highest grosser of the year, behind films like PK, HAPPY NEW YEAR, and KICK, but of course, a lot of that depends on word of mouth, which brings me to the second ace...

Director A.R. Murugadoss. His only film released so far in Hindi was GHAJINI back in 2008, and that film was a huge Blockbuster and was the first film to reach the 100 crore mark for Bollywood films. He was also the director of THUPPAKKI, the Tamil 2012 film that was hugely appreciated and that he is now re-making into Hindi as HOLIDAY.

The opening day collection of HOLIDAY will be good, but not as good as one would expect from an Akshay starrer. As said already, the buzz for this film is not quite there. Akshay's last release BOSS collected around 12 crores on it's opening day, but that film released on a holiday (no pun intended). Similarily, ONCE UPON A TIME IN MUMBAI DOBARA (had Sonakshi in it too) released on a holiday and collected 11 crores. His last non-holiday release SPECIAL 26 collected around 7 crores. Keeping this in mind, I think that the opening day of HOLIDAY will be somewhere around the 10 crore mark as it it is releasing on a non-holiday. One factor that may be able to boost HOLIDAY's opening day collection is that Akshay hasn't been on screen in a leading role for a film in 8 months now, his last release being BOSS. This is the longest gap between films for Akshay (where he was in a leading role) since ANDAZ/KHAKEE in 2003/2004. The opening will be good at single screens and mass-dominated areas as Akshay is a massy star. However, the opening could have been better if they stuck with the Hindi title THUPPAKKI for the film instead of HOLIDAY, as THUPPAKKI would be an easier title for audience in the interiors to connect with (a similar thing that Indicine had also said). With the film having an urban feel and urban title, opening at multiplexes should be good too, also considering the fact that it's summer and the youth will come to see the film. Also, there has been no major release for a while now, leaving the audience to feel hungry. Another thing to note though is that many of Akshay's top openers have had popular songs (Chinta Chinta in ROWDY RATHORE, Anarkali in HOUSEFULL 2, Sheila in TEES MAAR KHAN are some examples), and HOLIDAY is missing that popular song.

I am sure that HOLIDAY will have good word of mouth amongst the Indian audience due to it's director A.R. Murugadoss. As said, GHAJINI was hugely appreciated and was the first film in Bollywood to touch the 100 crore mark. He directed both the south and hindi version of GHAJINI and both versions were Blockbusters. As Tamil version THUPPAKKI got a lot of appreciation, similar results can be expected with HOLIDAY. Due to it's star cast, good release period (post IPL and no major competition for two weeks until HUMSHAKALS releases), and the film likely receiving good word of mouth, I am sure that HOLIDAY can touch the 100 crore mark.

The good word for the film can be universal-Akshay, Sonakshi, action,story, and the direction of the film could appeal to masses, while the urban feel, title, story, direction, performances, and some of the songs could appeal to the classes.

The film is very costly, however. Accoding to a previous article by Indicine, the film will be a Flop if it collects anything less than 80 crores. The 100-130 crore range will give the film Hit verdict, and I think that is where the film is heading.

Opening Day: 10+ crores net

Opening Weekend: 40+ crores net

Lifetime Collections: 115+ crores net

Overall Box Office Verdict: Hit

No chance.. it may go the Gunday way,good first weekend,end collections 70-80 cr Average-semihit

Bro if it was releasing during any other regular period then I would agree with lifetime collection of around 70 crores. But because it's a great release period, no major release for a while now, and the likely good word of mouth I think the film will do 100+ crore business

😆

Actually though the film is not exactly masala! It is different from Rowdy Rathore, Boss, and Khiladi 786 type of films because those were typical desi masala films, whereas Holiday has a more urban feel to it and has no typical masala dance chartbuster and probably a different style of action where he is not making people fly 😆

Well, it may have a story. But the trailors haven't excited and Akshay cares more about quantity than quality. 😕 He should look at the three aces of Bollywood - Aamir, Hrithik, and Ranbir. They don't do crap after crap. 👏