Consipracy about elimination

Now this show is designed on the basis that elimination is decided on the basis of popular voting which happens in a small window (for a few hours after the gala performance). The copy rights of this show are held by Simon Fuller and they run this show in all the major countries in pretty much the same format.

As per the spoiler the management has decided or some such premise behind the news. Now the person spreading this news is either very naive (actually believed her source and spreading it as gospel) or just a smarta*** pulling a fast one on the other bhola types (becos there are lot of responses to it with various degrees of disbelief or relief depending on their interest in Shivam).

We all know Shivam has been a regular in the bottom 3. There is a good chance statistically as we move closer to the final 3, he will get eliminated. If that is indeed going to be the case, i.e., Shivam is going to be eliminated then she can claim all the kudos for having told everybody about this (about how the management decided all this and somehow she is privy to it). On the other hand if he not out, she can claim there has been some last minute change in management decision and that is why it has not happened. How can anyone refute that? After all there is no proof one way or the other and it is so easy to spread such gossip!!

Now about Tia and how she got eliminated all of a sudden without ever coming in the bottom 3. This can be easily explained through numbers or pure statistics. There are lots of statistical combinations (in the absence of published data). Let us assume that Tia's fan base hasn't changed much with time (very likely given the amount of negative reviews she has been receiving from the judges week after week. Let us also assume that the overall voting base has increased with time as we are now moving into the final stages of this programme (as the show is gaining interest among wider public). Given that Tia must have been going down the ranking spectrum week after week as her voting based remained same but every one else's voting base is increasing becos of fewer and fewer contestants with time and assuming that most of those voting for earlier eliminated contestants (like Sashi, Arpita, Naushad etcc.) are now voting for other good candidates like Sreeram, Rakesh, Swaroop, Shivam etc. We also do not know the difference in the vote base between someone who was 4th from the bottom and the bottom most.

In such a scenario a few votes can swing one candidate from being never in the bottom 3 to being out the next round. So it is likely she was effectively barely 4th in the round of 7 (earlier elimination) and then next round with no improvement in votes was out in the round of 6.

We see this in election how a small splinter party can spoil the performance of the parent party by taking away those few key swing votes.

We don't need conspiracies to explain this stuff, though it is fun to gossip along those lines yet times!