Originally posted by: abdullahmukadam
Hi
First and foremost, i have been laughing reading Arpita's post and Rex Post. (LOL Samosa, kya kya title dete hai yaar forums member so funny)😆. After reading their posts i am now waiting for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Amitabh Bachhan and Sharukh etc, to register in IF and post their views, LOL.....😆😆😆
Anyways lets began on main topic, why does Qazi stand more chance even if his votes gets split. Here is the equation of forming a Government at FG.
The voting pattern in last 2 week shows
Total Voting (During Qazi, Rex & Arpita in Danger Zone)
66 lakhs
44 lakhs to Qazi
18 lakhs to Rex
2.5 lakhs to Arpita
Total Voting (During Rex, Ruprekha & Arpita in Danger zone)
30 lakhs
Arpita got 2.5 lakhs and they didnt announce how much Ruprekha got and Rex got. So from the remaining 27.5 lakh we assume ruprekha got 15 lakh and Rex 12.5 lakh.
Why does Rex get less when Ruprekha was there?
Here the mystery seems that people who voted for Rex earlier with Qazi in danger zone, voted for Ruprekha next time cutting into Rex's vote.ðŸ˜
Also the voting pattern shows a whopping deduction of more than half when Qazi was not there in danger zone. Consider this qazi's fan have saved their votes for the final. Now even if we do split votes here we go.
44 lakhs / 2 = 22 lakhs
22 lakhs for Ruprekha-Qazi
22 lakhs for Rex-Qazi
Assuming a split vote in Ruprekha's fan, from the 15 lakh she got, 40% vote for Ruprekha-Qazi and rest for Ruprekha-Rex, so now the addition results show
22 lakh + 6 lakhs = 28 lakh Ruprekha-Qazi
Rest go to Ruprekha-Rex
12.5 lakh votes of Rex + 9 votes of Ruprekha = 21.5 lakhs
(Pls note i have not even considered split of votes of Rex here)
Now if we assume in split of votes of Rex, giving Qazi-Rex 20% of Rex Votes and 80% to Ruprekha, the final result would be like this. So Rex's 2.40 thousand go off to Qazi-Rex
Qazi-Ruprekha = 28 Lakhs
Qazi-Rex = 22 lakhs + 2.4 lakhs (Rex split votes) = 25 lakhs Approx
Rex - Ruprekha = 9 lakhs (Rups vote) + 9.6 lakhs (Rex) = 18.5 lakhs Approx
Now considering the 2.5 lakhs Arpita got and her fans decide to vote Rex-Ruprekha against Qazi feeling he was responsible for her to be out of Fame Gurukul, So they go to Rex-RR
Final Tally for Rex-Ruprekha = 18.5 + 2.5 lakhs = 21 lakhs
What i forsee is Qazi coming through even in split votes, though i might be wrong.
It seems that even in split voting Qazi will come through comfortably in my opinion, though he looks more to come with Ruprekha as of now.
Lastly considering that Qazi fans act smarter and send 1 vote each to both Qazi-Rex and Qazi-Ruprekha, in this scenario the votes of Ruprekha and Rex becomes Negligible, because 44 lakhs voting 1 votes each at both places completly settles the issue in Favour of Qazi any how.
Now as i said i might be wrong, but the scenario is such that where you can predict that Qazi might be one in the fame jodi for sure and only a Miracle can get Rex-Ruprekha combination.
So Qazi Voters just be smart enough to cast 1 vote each to Qazi-RR and Qazi-Rex, the issue will be settled here and if Rups 25 percent split comes to Qazi, Rex will not have a chance. And the issue is that Janta who got Qazi to this extent of being in top 3, and saved 36 lakhs vote last week(remember last weeks voting ended up with 30 lakhs), will definately go for a all out voting for the guy they are loving and bought him here. And i might not be shocked if overall voting ends up with more than 1 crore votes.
The final judgement is that there wont be exactly 50% split in Qazi's votes and even a little margin of more than 50% is enough for Qazi to be sure in and as Fame Jodi.
While ending i will like to point, this equation was of split votes, just imagine the results incase of a split of Qazi votes between 25% & 75% to Qazi-Rex & Qazi-RR or vice versa. In that case there is little or no chance for Rex-RR combination. So only a miracle can get Rex-RR jodi. But miracles do happen, so lets wait for the results.
Now after Rex & Arpita who joined IF, i request Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and The finance minister P.A. Chidambaram to become members of IF and give suggestions to my equation since they are quite good in handling numbers. 😆
Regards,
Abby
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