But a lot more research, data gathering, and evaluation is needed. When it came to homosexuality, liberal states meant more exposure to gay people and less fear of coming out. Conservative states meant not being exposed to gay people and fear of being different. A modest amount of youth tried to experiment and ape their peers. But that experimentation was reversible. They could go back to heterosexual dating and could reproduce biologically if they chose to.
I suspect a similar effect is happening right now for transgender youth. But the challenge is that gender-affirming care is not easily reversible.
Even when homosexuality was becoming more acceptable, the increase in people coming out wasn't exponential. The increase in gender non-conforming behavior seems to have happened within the last decade and primarily within Gen Z.
But the liberal to transgender correlation is not always true. Iran has the second-highest number of gender reassignments per year. It is because per Islamic law there - homosexuality is a sin, but one can be born in the wrong body and receive care from the government to make it right.
Here is what I believe. I do not know if it has any rational scientific basis.
Sex is biological. You can be born male, female, or intersex.
Gender is sociocultural. It is the behavior society expected whether you were born male or female. This is variable. Things considered manly in one society, maybe feminine in another, and vice versa.
Gender or behavior does not have to align with biological sex. Anyone can dress, behave, and present in whatever way they want, irrespective of biological sex. Society needs to evolve to be more embracing of people who may not conform to their expected gender behavior.
Despite the freedom of gender expression, if someone genuinely wants to change their biological sex, they can do so as an adult. If a child feels trapped despite being allowed their desired gender expression, then it needs experts need to evaluate carefully on a case-by-case basis to determine if gender-affirming care is needed.
I think male or female spaces were originally designed by humans based on biological sex (male/female/intersex) rather than sociocultural gender identity (masculine/feminine/nonbinary). I do not think it is transphobic for people to desire spaces and identifications based on biological space. A person who has transitioned via surgery is welcome in biological spaces. But someone still biologically intact male shouldn't be allowed in female spaces and vice versa.
Of course, that raises questions
- what if someone cannot afford to transition
- what about children if transitioning is limited to adults
- what of the data that shows children who receive gender-affirming care are happier
I do not know. This topic is new, and there are so many variables and unknowns. I think all sides of the debate need to come together to try and navigate this in good faith.
That being said - I think treating humans with kindness and respect is of utmost importance. Bullying, demeaning, or harassing anyone because of how they present or their ideology is not acceptable. This goes to both sides. Transgender folks shouldn't be subject to violence or be called perverts/pedophiles without evidence. And the violent rape threats trans rights folks send JK Rowling and others with similar ideology is unacceptable.