Judwaa 2 : Reviews & BO Thread - Page 2

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Judwaa 2 Box-Office Collection: Prediction And Budget Analysis

19 Sep, 2017 - 6:57 PM | By Russel D'Silva

One of the year's most eagerly anticipated films is about to hit screens in a few days. We're talking about Judwaa 2, which the entire industry is banking on, particularly after the kind ofdeplorable year it has witnessed. With films flopping left, right, and center in 2017, and only eight films managing the proverbial hit' tag in nine months, all eyes are yet again trained on Varun Dhawan, who has fast emerged as one of Bollywood's most-bankable stars. The fact that he's reuniting with daddy David Dhawan in a genre that the latter excels in has raised expectations sky high.

Additionally, Judwaa 2 is carrying amazing prerelease buzz, thetrailer has clicked big time, and though the songs have been somewhat of a letdown, it has hardly taken any luster off the hype surrounding the film. The landing cost is a bit on the higher side, but with Varun and David's track record, the trade is banking on them to deliver that rare big hit in a year that's seen major failures and several sleeper hits. So, let's analyze the economics of Judwaa 2, see what could work in favor and against it, and get a knowhow of how much the film needs to be considered a box-office success.

Advantages:

1.) Varun Dhawan has becomes a major box-office draw, and his 100% success rate so far speaks volumes of how he's head-and-shoulders above the rest of the young brigade

2.) David Dhawan is one Bollywood Director who still commands loyalty among fans, and he seldom failed to deliver at the box-office

3.) The trailer has hit the bulls-eye, and is among the few trailers this year that has generated pan-India interest

4.) Tremendous recall of the first film that had released in 1997

5.) Jacqueline Fernandez is quite popular in her own right, especially in the metros

6.) No family masala entertainer, with the slight exception ofMubarakan, has worked this year, and the audience is dying for a good ol' fashioned family outing at the movies

7.) None of the new releases over the past two weeks have clicked, and the last hit, Shubh Mangal Saavdhan, released almost a month ago, leaving the coast clear forJudwaa 2 to run riot should its content click

8.) Salman Khan's cameo he's always a factor in any form, shape, or size

Disadvantages:

1.) The songs have not worked, and have actually managed to dampen the impact of the trailer by a wee margin.

2.) The distribution cost of the film is on the higher side, which could make it a risky proposition should the content not click

3.) The metro audience is a tad slow these days to warm up to masala films, even if their content turns out to be good

Factoring in the above points, we're going with an opening-day prediction in the range of Rs. 15-18 crore nett, which our trade analyst, Rohit Jaiswal, feels is a fair number given the tremendous buzz the film is carrying. If the film begins on this note, and then receives good reviews and word-of-mouth, it could well finish its weekend with extremely strong numbers in the range of Rs. 60-70 crore nett.

The film's budget is reasonable for its star cast. However, its distribution cost is a tad high, which could make recovery a tad difficult for Fox Star Studios, should the content flatter to deceive. The producers (Nadiadwala Grandson Entertainment) though have already minted profits, after combining the satellite, music, and digital rights (which are yet undisclosed) with their huge distribution fee.

Nevertheless, Judwaa 2 is looking like an extremely safe bet at the moment, and it should emerge a huge success unless the content backfires big time. According to our trade analyst, Rohit Jaiswal, the film has ample scope to end up collecting anywhere between Rs. 135-140 crore nett, and could even touch Rs. 150 crore if it turns out to be a brilliant venture, with the father-son duo of David and Varun Dhawan truly in their elements. In fact, he feels that Judwaa 2 will finally catapult Varun into superstar league and opines that even in the worst-case scenario, the film will collects a minimum ofRs. 70-80 crore nett.

"The trailer of Judwaa 2 has generated terrific buzz. It's a modern day remake of a Bollywood classic. After release, even if the film doesn't get good word-of-mouth, it will at least reach Rs. 70-80 crore. If the word-of-mouth is positive, it's expected to touch Rs. 135-150 crore, and could even cross 150 crore if the response is excellent. In any scenario, the film is going to emerge as a hit. Judwaa 2 is likely to mark the arrival of Varun Dhawan as a superstar.

However, he also cautioned us not to get carried away and expect the film to touch 200 crore as the dull pre-Diwali period begins from 6thOctober onward, and that period will also see as many as five to six films releasing.

"There's no chance of the film collecting anything close to 200 crore as 6th October marks the beginning of the dull pre-Diwali phase, and those weeks before Diwali will also see the competition thickening , with the release of as many as five to six films.

Here's how much Judwaa 2 needs to collect at the box-office to earn a clean hit' tag or better:

So, all signs point toward Judwaa 2being a sure-shot bet at the box-office. However, if there's one entity known for its erratic behavior, then it's the box-office, and if 2017 has taught us anything, it's to be prepared for the worst. Still, just like the entire industry and trade, we, too, have our fingers crossed for the film's expected success.