It's that time of the year again. Salman Khan. Eid. It's the first mega-event film of the year!
That's big enough, but there's also the fact that the film is being produced by the biggest film production house in India: Yash Raj Films.
Since September 2010 (Eid 2010), Salman Khan has had 9 releases: DABANGG, READY, BODYGUARD, EK THA TIGER, DABANGG 2, JAI HO, KICK, BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN, and PREM RATAN DHAN PAYO. 7 of these 9 films went on to become box office Blockbusters. The other 2 films were JAI HO and PREM RATAN DHAN PAYO, the former which still entered the 100 crore club, the latter which still went on to enter the 200 crore club. His last Eid release, BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN, entered the 300 crore club, and is currently the second highest grossing Hindi film in India as we speak. This Khan has been simply unstoppable!
Director Ali Abbas Zafar himself has had a 100% box office success ratio, with both MERE BROTHER KI DULHAN and GUNDAY faring fairly well at the box office.
Yash Raj Films, the biggest production house in India, have delivered some of the biggest box office blockbusters in recent years during festival periods, such as EK THA TIGER (Eid) and DHOOM 3 (Christmas).
Anushka Sharma is also in the film, who herself has been in some hugely successful YRF films such as RAB NE BANA DI JODI and BAND BAAJA BARAAT. It should of course be mentioned that she was also in the highest grossing Hindi film at present time, PK.
Expectations from SULTAN are gargantuan, and for good reason.
The expectation from SULTAN (from the audience and probably from Salman himself) would be that SULTAN should gross higher than last Eid's BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN which did 320 crores lifetime (Salman's highest grosser). However, such expectations can be unrealistic!
People need to remember that there have only been two films so far to cross the 300 crore mark in India: PK and BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN. Not only were they both Khan films released during a festival season, but more importantly, they had super-strong WOM. Super-strong WOM is something that I feel SULTAN will lack. Why? Read on!
Firstly, it needs to be remembered that most big YRF films (including their mega-event films) always end up having mixed Word of Mouth (WOM). Their mega-event films such as EK THA TIGER and DHOOM 3 are proof of that, as are the other lesser (but big films nonetheless) films such as GUNDAY and FAN, the latter which was outright rejected with negative WOM despite having the biggest opening of the year.
Ali Abbas Zafar's directorial skills haven't been hugely appreciated by the Indian audience yet. MERE BROTHER KI DULHAN did well at the box office, but that was largely due to Katrina's starpower and the popular music, as the film itself sustained at a below average level after it's opening weekend. GUNDAY did fairly well at the box office, and although the Ormax Media Audience WOM score of 62% suggests that the film did have some appreciation, it can't be denied that the film had a poor trend after it's opening weekend, and with its mixed WOM, it can be said that the huge opening of the film (which again, was also aided by popular music, but other factors too) contributed a lot to the film's success.
SULTAN also has popular music, but with the likely mixed WOM that the film will have (because of the factors I have written above), SULTAN will not be able to cross the 300 crore mark! Not too much of a problem though, as the film will easily cross the 200 crore mark, which would still make the film a big grosser.
Coming to the theatrical trailer of the film, it was good, but one problem was that the trailer pretty much revealed the majority of what will happen in the film. Salman's character will face struggles through the film, and ultimately, it will culminate in him winning the final fight/wrestling match in the climax. People are also speculating that Anushka's character will die in the film, and although it's likely, it remains to be seen if it will happen. The UFC style fights shown in the trailer were also shown in BROTHERS, and that film bombed badly at the box office last year. Generally, people may feel that there is not much novelty in the film (an example of this also being that people have drawn comparisons to Salman's character going through a struggle similar to how SRK's character did in CHAK DE INDIA). Also, Salman's Haryanvi accent can work with the audience from Haryana/North, but for audience in other areas of India, the accent may put them off and not be appreciated!
Here's another factor to consider: the Salman Khan controversy over his rape remark. A famous pro wrestling personality/authority figure Eric Bischoff had a book titled, "Controversy Creates Cash." That is indeed true, and is proven by the huge advance booking response that SULTAN has had. However, there is no denying the public outrage towards Salman Khan for his statement, and although it may not reflect on the film's opening day, it may start to from the second day onwards. The reason is, some of those outraged may spread negativity about the film being bad on social media, without even having seen the film. Some of the people who go to watch the film may due it for the sole intention of spreading negativity about the film. If it was a film like BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN or PK that got targeted like this, it wouldn't be much of a problem, because most people felt that they were legitimately great films. However, a film like SULTAN which has more chances of having flaws, could easily be picked apart from those spreading negativity, and thus, an average film could be viewed as being a bad film due to those spreading negativity from the rape statement. Ali Abbas Zafar did have to deal with this perhaps with his last film GUNDAY as well, as the film had mixed WOM but ended up being perceived as a much worse film than that due to Bangladeshi protestors that spread negativity about the film and got it's IMDB rating to be in the 1.something out of 10 (2/10 at the moment), whereas normally it would've likely been 5.something out of 10 (something like 5.5/10). That could have further hurt the box office collections of GUNDAY. Similar effect with DILWALE, a mixed WOM film that became even more dented at the box office due to SRK's intolerance statement.
Here's the WOM score (conducted by Ormax Media) of Salman Khan's 100 crore films, arranged in order from best to worst:
Bajrangi Bhaijaan: 77%
Dabangg: 66%
Dabangg 2: 63%
Kick: 63%
Ready: 62%
Ek Tha Tiger: 58%
Jai Ho: 58%
PRDP: 56%
Bodyguard: 54%
and, the WOM score of another mega-event YRF film DHOOM 3, and director Ali Zafar's last film GUNDAY...
Gunday: 62%
Dhoom 3: 61%
Overall, I'm expecting the WOM of Sultan in India to be mixed. There will be extra negativity for the film due to Salman's rape statement. WOM will be best in mass centres, where the film will be well-appreciated due to the music, Salman-Anushka pairing, and Salman in the action form with the title track, the wrestling/fight scenes and all. WOM at multiplexes and big centres will be mixed, possibly bordering towards negative, as I feel that it will really only be the Salman-Anushka story in the film that could click with this audience. Salim Khan (Salman's Dad) called it the most gripping film of his son's career, which of course any father can say about any film! I feel that majority will feel that this film is a one-time watch.
Having said all that, the film has a 5-day opening weekend, which is looking to be earth-shattering at the box office. It has already been reported by trade sources (such as Indicine and Komal Nahta) that the film has phenomenal advance booking. The opening day for the film is on Wednesday (pre-Eid), which (according to Indicine) will be a partial holiday in a few states, and the Eid holiday will be the next day (Thursday). The last two years, Salman Khan's films also opened during pre-Eid, which saw KICK collecting 26 crores in 2014 and BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN (which also released the day before Eid, like SULTAN) collect 27 crores in 2015. If we factor in a similar year-to-year 1 crore jump (or 2-3%) or so, SULTAN will collect around 28 crores on it's opening day. However, SULTAN has Tamil and Telegu versions unlike KICK and BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN, so another 2 crores can be added (approx) to bring it to 30 crores. Indicine says that partial holidays usually get about 20% advantage, and that FAN earlier this year may have gotten a similar benefit. If I factor in a 20% advantage to the otherwise 30 crores the film would've collected, the opening day figure will be in the range of 36 crores. The biggest non-holiday opener till date is YRF's own DHOOM 3, and I feel that YRF will increase/manipulate the collection by a few lakhs to make the film collect higher than DHOOM 3 and present SULTAN as the highest non-holiday opener (they may present SULTAN as a non-holiday opener despite the partial holiday). The collection on the Eid holiday (Thursday) will be around the 39-40 crore mark, 39 crores will likely be the official figure from YRF. In comparison, BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN last year on Eid (the film's second day of release) collected 36 crores.
If we look at Eid releases for 200 crore films in the last couple years, the Ormax Media WOM score looks like this:
Chennai Express: 60% (227 crore lifetime)
Kick: 63% (231 crore lifetime)
Bajrangi Bhaijaan: 77% (320 crore lifetime)
The WOM coordinates with the lifetime collections: the higher, the better. SULTAN definitely won't have as good WOM as BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN as I've already said. Assuming the film has WOM in between CHENNAI EXPRESS and KICK (in the range of 62% or so, similar to director's Ali's last film GUNDAY) then the lifetime collection will be in between CHENNAI EXPRESS and KICK. I don't see the film collecting less than KICK,and given the hike in ticket prices since KICK released back in 2014, I will say that SULTAN will cross the lifetime collections of KICK by a couple of crores.
Taran Adarsh has released the economics of SULTAN as being 70 crores (Cost and Production) + 20 crores (Prints and Advertising) for a total budget of 90 crores. According to Indicine, the satellite rights have been sold at approx 55-60 crores to Sony and is assumed to be Salman's acting fee and marketing value). Another 15 crores have been recovered from various other rights and branding, which means the recovery of the 90 crore budget is already in the range of 70-75 crores!
My Box Office Predictions for Sultan (Hindi, Tamil, and Telegu versions all included):
Opening Day: 36.25 crores net
Opening 5-Day Weekend (Wed-Sun): 150 crores net
Lifetime Collections: 240 crores net
Overall Box Office Verdict: Blockbuster
Overall, the film will be the usual Salman Eid Blockbuster. Having said that, there is a peak point of a performer, and I feel that BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN was that point for Salman Khan in terms of box office collections/appreciation. Similar to how SRK's box office peak was CHENNAI EXPRESS and he never got to that level again, I think it may be difficult for Salman to reach the 300 crore club again in his career, due to various factors, such as increasing age and outrage over recent rape statement. All things at the top eventually do come down, and I think 2016 will be a telling year for the Khans who are all 50+ years old now.
This will be the first time since Salman's Blockbuster Eid run started in 2009 that his Eid release won't gross higher than his previous Eid release. Nonetheless, SULTAN will still be a Blockbuster!
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