Tomorrow, through the lens

Forecasting the future is a fascinating venture. The problem is that people expect a Nostradamus-like prediction. Unfortunately, what we miss is the beginning of trends, or when trends finally begin to show themselves. The world would be a safer place if we watched and plotted trends, rather than forecast defined events, catastrophic or otherwise. Here are six pointers that I believe will define the future of Indian cinema in the days to come.

Threat of extinction

Commercial Hindi cinema as we know it is in its death throes, brought about by its own short-sightedness. While cinema the world over has aspired and worked towards becoming a global force, Indian filmmakers (especially in the so-called Bollywood) have become incestuous. If they keep going this way, they are under threat of extinction.

It's time for Indian filmmakers to stop blaming the lack of audience intelligence as an excuse for their own lack of vision and ambition. Not realising that they are, in the process, losing audiences to dubbed foreign/Hollywood films on TV. The rug is about to be pulled out from under them.

Driven by the media frenzy around often inflated box-office numbers, everyone forgets that, especially in North India, the number of people visiting cinemas is falling. The box-office numbers are driven by a steep rise in ticket prices " the Chavanni Class' mass audience' does not exist any more. Over 95 per cent of Indians are unable to afford the tickets of a multiplex screen. Once, the mainstay of Indian cinema was family audiences. How many families in India have the income to be able to spend Rs. 3,000 on a family outing, if you include cost of tickets, transport and chips, samosa, popcorn and cola for the kids?

Indian cinema is no longer mass entertainment. Certainly, not in North India. It consistently aspires to draw in an elite and upper-middle-class audience that can afford the high ticket price. That's why 95 per cent of our films are urban-based. The media frenzy around how our box-office figures overseas are expanding does not tell the whole truth. Indian films overseas are popular with the diaspora looking for nostalgia or an expression of their individuality. Take out typical Indian film music and dance, and even they are not interested in Indian cinema.

Chinese, Korean and other Asian cinema, once far behind us, have streaked ahead. Not only in popularity, but in respectability too, claiming top awards at major festivals.

Regional resurgence and the Chinese way

A few filmmakers are fighting a lone battle, but when a ship is scuttled, the brave go down with it too. The only film I have seen from India that I really loved and admired was the Marathi film Court, and the Academy made a huge mistake in not recognising its brilliance. You only need to look at regional cinema to realise that filmmakers there are far less corrupted than their Bollywood counterparts. However, I will say this in defence of Indian filmmakers " there is a serious lack of infrastructure to support them. There are only 8,000 screens in India. And, films in at least four major languages are competing for them. When a major Hindi film takes 5,000 screens for its release, there's not much left for others. The number of screens is not rising.

China is adding more than 15 screens every day. Locally-produced films are now regularly touching a box office of over 100 million dollars domestically. It is estimated that China will overtake the U.S. in the next five years, as the largest domestic film market in the world. That will give Chinese filmmakers " directors and producers " extraordinary muscle to compete with the world.

The Chinese government has actively encouraged this policy; they see culture as soft power. In India, we tout Bollywood as India's soft power. It's a joke. People smile benignly at our films... and laugh when I am out of the room.

Scissors becoming irrelevant

The Censor Board is becoming irrelevant. When 99 per cent of content consumed in India is not theatrical, but through the Internet or TV, what difference does it make that a kiss in Spectre was reduced? It's all media hype. The days when films such as Bandit Queen caused a furore in the whole nation are over. There are greater and more effective ways to spread the message beyond theatrical cinema now.

New medium of rebellion

The artiste has always been the conscience of society. And, will continue to be so. The conflict between the artiste and the State will continue. Art is provoked by a rebellious mind, and creativity is provoked by a rebellious heart. But, the artiste needs to find a medium of expression that is relevant and reaches out to a large number of people. Unfortunately, cinema has lost that position. Cinema is no longer the mass medium it used to be, and the filmmaker is far more concerned or is forced to be concerned about the box-office numbers in the first weekend. Even the media and the film-goer are obsessed by the box-office numbers.

Social Media is more of an expression of rebellion today. For better or worse, the wisdom of the crowd has taken over. A five-minute video that goes viral has a greater potential as a medium of rebellion than a whole film.

The smart opportunity and a new challenge

Yet, there is a huge opportunity. We may have only 8,000 screens. But we have 250 million smart phones in India, and growing. With 4G services being rolled out, high-speed broadband structures being built, that translates into 250-million-plus screens. This is true democratisation of the entertainment space.

Of course, the small cell phone screen does not replace the experience of the big screen. However, 95 per cent of the world's audio visual consumption is now on the cell phone or on the personal computer.

New technologies that give the viewer far greater control over how he/she watches, and where, are emerging. A generation of film viewers are growing up on the small screen', where they have more power to control what they want to see. New technologies are provoking them to expect interactivity with what they consume.

Films will now become, what we call, 360-degree events. Theatricals will be just a small component of the total experience. My guess is that films will now be released as an app with a theatrical release attached. Or, not.

It will offer a much deeper exploration of the character, story lines, interactivity, and the most exciting new technology and tool of storytelling " Virtual Reality.

Even in the U.S., the box-office capital of the world, audiences prefer to watch films and dramatic series on platforms such as Netflix, Amazon and Hulu, or HBO " not just for the convenience of it. More and more directors, filmmakers and writers are abandoning the theatrical market place to move to the digital platforms. Independent cinema seems to have moved to the digital and online space.

As Netflix and Reliance Jiyo spread their wings in India, the same will happen here. Some of the best talent will find their place on these platforms. But, here is the rub. Once you have a Netflix account, you will equally be able to watch the best of international films and TV series worldwide. And, Indian talent will finally be forced compete with international talent. How many of them will be able to?

The emergence of a new filmmaker

In India, a whole new generation of 360-degree filmmakers' will emerge. And given that we are the youngest demographic nation in the world, where almost 50 per cent of our population will soon be under 25, India is best placed to exploit this new force in storytelling " provided the infrastructure of broadband connectivity or 4G services are laid out fairly soon. Or, we will lose this race too.

India has a huge spectrum problem. Some of it is real, some created by companies that are holding on to it and not using it. But, I believe, we are on the cusp of dramatic breakthroughs in compression technologies, making it possible to stream a lot more information in a much smaller spectrum bandwidth.

If I was an investor, this is where I would invest.