Box Office Prediction: Once Upon A Time In Mumbaai

• Posted in : Bollywood,Box Office,Joginder Tuteja
• |
• July 27th, 2013.

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Box Office Prediction and Analysis by Joginder Tuteja

Why OUATIMD is so Important

The time has come. 'Once Upon Ay Time In Mumbaai Dobaara' is a little over a fortnight away from release and it won't be wrong to say that the film would make a lot of noise on it's arrival. In fact if the buzz for the film is just right currently, it is expected to increase manifold in days to come.

As a matter of fact, it has to!

There is a lot riding on the film. Inarguably, it is the biggest film ever to have come out of Ekta Kapoor's stable. It is one of the biggest that Akshay Kumar has been a part of (and would be releasing in months to come). It is the first ever commercial film for Sonakshi Sinha where she actually is supposed to be doing a lot more than song-n-dance routine. It is also expected to be a game changer for 'chocolate lover boy' Imran Khan. And last, but perhaps most importantly, it is a film with which Milan Luthria could be one of the rare filmmakers to strike a hat trick (after 'Once Upon A Time In Mumbaai' and 'The Dirty Picture').

Chennai Express ' OUATIM D ' Satyagraha

The Ground Reality

However, and that's a BIG *however* here, the film is challenged by a number of factors which means it is going to be a battle, a fiercely fought one as a matter of fact, when it releases.

It is surrounded by mega releases from all ends. There is 'Chennai Express' before it (on 9th August), 'Madras Cafe' a week later (on 23rd August) and then 'Satyagraha' a fortnight later (on 30th August). Importance of limited or weak competition can never be discounted, especially when it comes to biggies, and that was seen recently in case of 'Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani' which went on to reach a monumental mark, courtesy it's own inherent strength as well as the fact that there was hardly any worthy challenge to stop it's enviable fast track ride.

In case of 'Once Upon Ay Time In Mumbaai Dobara', it is expected that the content would be strong. After all, director Milan Luthria and writer Rajat Arora are known for their strong work in the background and then in execution. Moreover, with the first in the series being super strong, it would be sacrilege to rope in Akshay Kumar as the central protagonist and bring in anything that is inferior by any means.

What goes in its Favour

What works in favour of the film is a very strong recall value which means audience is expected to just walk into the sequel without much of a problem. Of course there would be comparisons with Ajay Devgn but since he and Akshay have a more or less common fan-base (unlike Shahrukh or Salman who have 'camps' amidst fans as well), one doesn't see much of a bloodbath on these grounds.

On its promo release, there was an initial shock amongst few when the sequel appeared to be a love story instead of an action drama. The makers were quick to feel the audience pulse and the 'hero v/s villain' approach was pronto devised, hence infusing a sense of familiarity amongst the audience. All of that has ensured that at least from the content perspective, the film should pull in audience with the final product speaking for itself.

Where it may feel Threatened

Of course this still doesn't mean that on its arrival, the film would have an absolute clean run for itself. Unless 'Chennai Express' turns out to be 'Ra. One' or 'Tees Maar Khan' (which won't quite be the case), there would be audience for the Shahrukh Khan starrer in it's second week as well. This means at least at single screens, OUATIMD would have to grab the best that comes its way. Fortunately for it, 'Madras Cafe' which arrives a week later is primarily a multiplex film which means while single screens won't be impacted, even at multiplexes there would be even distribution of screens.

By the time 'Satyagraha' arrives, it would all boil down to the eventual content that OUATIMD boasts of. If it is good to excellent, it would find its place under the sun even with the company of Prakash Jha starrer. If it is anything less, it would make way for the newer releases. However, and to its good fortune, the film would still have an entire fortnight for itself to make some serious moolah which would be fine enough to propel it into the profit zone.

The FINAL WORD

On its release back in 2010, 'Once Upon A Time In Mumbaai' had managed a 20 crore opening weekend, 35 crore first week and 60 crore lifetime.

Rest assured, at a bare minimum, the sequel should manage at least 35 crore in its opening weekend, 60 crore in it's opening week and over 100 crore lifetime. Anything more and that's a bonus that all involved would be happy to count.

Joginder Tuteja tweets @tutejajoginder