Who will win Delhi? 'Jhaadu', 'Kamal' or 'Haath': 5 Major Factors

'Jhaadu', 'Kamal' or 'Haath' - which election symbol will Delhi vote for on February 5? The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress are locked in a triangular contest, with the odds stacked against the Grand Old Party. The key battle is between the AAP and the BJP with both offering a bevy of freebies and schemes in their manifestos, promising to implement them if voted to power.

Free electricity, cash transfers to women, free bus rides, scholarships for students, pensions, and healthcare benefits for the elderly - the promises have every section of society covered. With the Union government's massive announcement for the middle class in the Union Budget on Saturday - no tax will be imposed on incomes up to Rs 12 lakh - the BJP appears to have gathered momentum. The party has not only made a significant appeal to the salaried middle-class segment, but has also outdone Arvind Kejriwal's demand for the tax exemption limit to be raised to Rs 10 lakh.

While both parties emphasise welfare initiatives like free electricity, cash transfers for women, and healthcare benefits, their approaches differ in scope and scale. What will appeal more to Delhi's voters? Here are five factors that are likely to play a decisive role.

The five major factors are---

1 Middle class -- Over 67% of its households belong to the middle class, and cannot be ignored electorally. The middle-class voter, which forms a large part of the voters in Delhi, may now tilt towards the BJP with the recent Budget announcement. Adding to this, AAP faces two terms of anti-incumbency and corruption charges against its leaders have dented its image. These could drag down the AAP's poll prospects.

2 Muslims and Dalits: Muslims consist of 12.68 percent of the population of Delhi whereas Dalits make up 16.92 percent. The Dalit vote in the capital, primarily based in the jhuggis and clusters, has largely been with AAP in recent years, but that may see a split now as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Sunday, announced that slums would not be razed.

3 Freebies: Both AAP and BJP have gone all-in with their promises to attract voters. While AAP has emphasised free electricity, water, and cash transfers, BJP has not only matched the promises but also tried to counter with a more middle-class-friendly budget and the promise of tax exemptions.

4 Women: Women make up 48% of India’s population, and their electoral influence is becoming increasingly apparent. With over 71.7 lakh women voters in the national capital, women are emerging as a crucial demographic for political parties. In their attempt to woo them, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has pledged to double the monthly cash transfer under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Samman Yojana from ₹1,000 to ₹2,100 if re-elected. Similarly, the BJP has made a comparable commitment of ₹2,500 per month.

5 The Face: While Arvind Kejriwal is the clear CM candidate and face of AAP, BJP continues to seek votes under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, without yet announcing a CM candidate for Delhi. Kejriwal has repeatedly taunted the BJP over the uncertainty surrounding their CM choice. However, PM Modi, BJP's most prominent figure in every election, is banking on his vision to fast-track Delhi’s development to secure a win for the party.

Now the country is waiting to see the results with bated breath!!

Aam Aadmi Party continues to be the favourite at the moment despite a sharp fall in its tally as compared to 2020 and 2015. According to the latest estimates of the Phalodi Satta Bazar, the AAP is projected to win 38 to 40 seats in the Delhi elections.

BJP remains in strong contention, unlike Congress, to take the pole position in Delhi. According to the latest projections, the BJP is estimated to win 30-32 seats in the elections.

As the clock ticks down to February 5, these five factors could play a critical role in deciding whether Delhi continues to be ruled by AAP or if BJP can finally break its 23-year streak of defeats in the national capital. The results will be announced of February 8.

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/assembly/story/delhi-assembly-elections-exit-polls-matrize-cvoter-peoples-pulse-pmark-bjp-win-prediction-aap-congress-arvind-kejriwal-narendra-2675346-2025-02-05

According to majority of the exit polls for the Delhi Assembly Election 2025, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to make a comeback in the national capital after 27 years, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is not expected to go past 30 seats. Meanwhile, pollsters predicted that the Congress party will fail to make an impact in Delhi with their seat tally unlikely to go past 3. However, both AAP and Congress have urged the public to wait for the poll results, claiming that exit polls are unreliable after the Lok Sabha elections.

Here’s what the Exit Polls are saying this year:

Exit PollBJP (likely seats) AAP (likely seats) Congress (likely seats)
Chanakya Strategies 39-44 ## 25-28 ## 2-3
Matrize 35-40 32-37 0-1
P-Marq 39-44 21-31 0-1
People’s Pulse 51-60 10-18 0-1
People’s Insight 40-44 25-28 0-1
Poll Diary 42-50 18-25 0-2
JVC 39-45 22-31 0-2

According to aggregated exit polls, the BJP is projected to secure a majority. However, the AAP has a history of outperforming exit poll predictions.

It will be interesting to see the results on the counting day.

Originally posted by: vijay

According to aggregated exit polls, the BJP is projected to secure a majority. However, the AAP has a history of outperforming exit poll predictions.

It will be interesting to see the results on the counting day.

Originally posted by: Viswasruti

But, this time I prefer to see BJP win, Delhi needs some funds and improved infrastructure. AAP already served [ ruined Delhi] for 2 terms, it is high time to see a change there.

We already had Kamal and Haath in past ruling over Delhi. Then, Jhaadu came and ruled over Delhi.

Why do you think Kamal / BJP rule will make Delhi better now?

Originally posted by: Swetha-Sai

We already had Kamal and Haath in past ruling over Delhi. Then, Jhaadu came and ruled over Delhi.

Why do you think Kamal / BJP rule will make Delhi better now?

I'm not saying bjp is some dudh ki dhuli party but bjp ruled states have better infrastructure and air n water quality than delhi

I'm 29 years old Delhiite and I have never seen anything in delhi to be proud of

Originally posted by: Viswasruti

But, this time I prefer to see BJP win, Delhi needs some funds and improved infrastructure. AAP already served [ ruined Delhi] for 2 terms, it is high time to see a change there.

Bold : I can testify

Aap government has only brought Aapda in delhi