India Rising
American think tanks are getting bullish on India
The country is on the verge of becoming a major player on the world stage.
By: Allison Fedirka, Geopolitical Futures, June 26, 2020
India’s days as a fairly quiet giant on the world stage are coming to an end. For much of the 21st century, India has punched well below its weight in international affairs. It is the seventh-largest country in the world by area and has the second-largest population, with nearly 1.38 billion inhabitants. Considering its younger demographics, it’s on pace to soon surpass China as the largest country in the world by population. Its economy has steadily climbed in the global ranks over the past two decades and now stands as the fifth-largest. It’s a major energy consumer, and its naval potential could affect China’s power projection capabilities.
But the country has so far been unable to drive global events or influence the actions of global players like the United States, Germany, Russia and China to any substantial degree. This appears to be changing, however. The global center of gravity, both militarily and economically, is shifting from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific, bringing India front and center in world affairs. Considering that this comes at a time when India’s relative power is increasing, it appears that the country is set to earn a more prominent role in the international system.
India’s long struggle to accrue power and project force is a result of many constraints facing the country. Located on the Indian subcontinent, India is geographically isolated from the rest of Eurasia. Water bodies line about a third of its 14,000-mile-long border, while natural barriers cover much of its land borders. The Himalayan Mountains in the north, Arakan Mountains in the east and the Thar Desert in the west buffer a large portion of the Indo-Gangetic Plain from the rest of Asia. Intense conflicts with Pakistan and the need to balance China have kept India largely focused on the subcontinent. The country’s population, meanwhile, is highly segmented by language, religion and a complicated caste system. Administratively, India’s states and union territories enjoy a high degree of autonomy and have their own regulatory systems that operate parallel to the central government. Political parties have strong roots at the state level, and national parties rely on local partners to gain influence in states and local communities. Physical isolation and intense internal divisions, therefore, have impeded India’s ability to engage with other countries from a position of strength.
Recently, however, the government has attempted to improve India’s international standing – and this starts by centralizing power. For much of its post-independence existence, India has had a federal system in which states and union territories have been fairly autonomous. This resulted in a weaker national government and uneven development, but it was a price worth paying because decentralization was seen as the best way to keep states from separating and to keep India intact – which, after partition, was no small feat. To be able to increase its power abroad, however, a stronger central government was needed, and this required a united population and a unifying message.
Over the past six years, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi advanced a series of economic reforms aimed at developing a more coordinated, robust national economy. Modi introduced a demonetization scheme and streamlined the country’s goods and services tax system. He made several regulatory changes to try to encourage foreign investment in areas previously dominated by the state or, with the state’s help, smaller local businesses. The government is still working to clean up the country’s financial system, reforming bankruptcy procedures and loosening price controls in an effort to create a more business-friendly environment. It has also supported the development of 25 sectors – such as defense manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, textiles and automobile components – where India has a comparative advantage to attract investment and promote exports. The recent pandemic-triggered crisis served as yet another opportunity for Modi to push through reforms in agriculture, coal and privatization as part of the government’s stimulus and recovery package. At the macro level, there are signs that the moves have been somewhat successful. Since 2014, India’s economy has moved from the 10th-largest to the fifth-largest in the world. Foreign direct investment has increased from $190 billion in 2009-14 to $284 billion in 2014-19.
However, government attempts to unify the country politically and socially have proved difficult. The Modi government has promoted the concept of Hindu nationalism to rally the majority under one flag by drawing on the country’s historic ties to Hindu culture and civilizations. However, Hinduism is also a religion, and one that has clashed in the past with minority religious groups – especially Muslims, who make up 14 percent of the Indian population and are often the target of religious and social violence such as the riots in northeast Delhi earlier this year.
Last year, the government passed the Citizenship Amendment Bill, which excluded Muslims from the groups of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Pakistan eligible for citizenship in India. Under the law, Muslims who flee these countries are ineligible for citizenship because they are not considered minority groups in their countries of origin. There is also a push to implement a nationwide citizen registry by 2024. The registry would require people who live in India to prove their Indian citizenship. If they cannot, they would be considered non-citizens and face legal ramifications such as deportation and denial of services.
Both the Citizenship Amendment Bill and plans for a national registry have proved highly controversial and produced a strong political backlash against the government. Another point of controversy was the August 2019 decision to change the administrative status in Jammu and Kashmir by repealing Article 370 of the Constitution. The move paved the way for expanding the property, employment and residency rights in Jammu and Kashmir – where previously special privileges had been reserved for the majority-Muslim population – to people from other parts of India, including Hindus. Some people in the state voiced concern over a perceived government effort to encourage Hindu migration to the area in an effort to alter its demographics. (Interestingly, though India’s internal conflicts have proved difficult to overcome, throughout its brief history the emergence of an external enemy – the United Kingdom in the 1940s, China today – has helped to unite the population.)
A rapidly growing India has forced the government to prioritize issues beyond domestic divisions. The country’s booming economy relies on energy – foreign energy – to run. In recent years, India needed to secure access to more energy supplies. This, in turn, required India to develop the security infrastructure to protect its supply lines. So New Delhi began to develop its naval capabilities so that the country can move beyond coastal patrols and start projecting power into the Indian Ocean. Another element of the drive toward security self-sufficiency is the domestic production of defense equipment and reduced reliance on foreign weapons and equipment, particularly from a single source. At this point, India’s military is not self-reliant, and its navy still lacks full blue-water capabilities. But it is taking steps in the right direction.
It will need to take further steps, because the focal point of global affairs has been shifting and will continue to shift toward Asia. In particular, the United States has concentrated on China’s efforts at economic and military expansion, which inherently increases India’s strategic value to Washington. India is geographically positioned to contain China to the west, and serves as one of many alternative locations for U.S. businesses seeking to relocate out of China. Similarly, other countries keen to balance against China’s rise, like Japan and Australia, have been courting India to be closer security partners in the region. Even India’s relationship with Pakistan, a neighbor and bitter rival, is now linked to the U.S.-China dynamic, with Beijing using Islamabad as a focal point in its Belt and Road Initiative.
Since the start of the Cold War, India has preferred nonalignment, noninterference, nonaggression and economic cooperation. This approach allowed New Delhi to engage with the world without losing its flexibility or becoming the pawn of one of the superpowers. To this day, India is reluctant to further develop the Quad alliance, even though it shares the anti-China sentiment of the other members. But in the current environment, India will see its nonalignment approach challenged given its size and growing proximity to the geopolitical center of gravity.
India is much better positioned to be an important player in the U.S.-China standoff than it was during the Cold War. Internally, the government has made important strides in military and economic development, though more work is needed. Politically and socially, the country still has significant divisions, but it’s stable and is many more decades removed from its founding. Its geographic position makes it extremely valuable to the United States. China will saber rattle along the border, but it has sizable problems internally and in its trade war with the U.S. that prevent it from acting rashly against India. Pakistan will continue its tough talk, but its inferior military and frail domestic economy are obstacles to any actions that would provoke a strong response from New Delhi. Russia’s domestic weaknesses undermine its international hand, but Moscow still provides a counterweight to Beijing and Washington. India is also an important arms buyer for Russia at a time when Moscow needs its export sector to make up for low energy prices.
India has an opportunity to take a proactive role in shaping international affairs to suit its interests. It also faces the risk that it may be forced to take a stronger stance and choose one country over another, breaking from its tradition of nonalignment. Such an event may be hard to imagine now, but the realities of the day mean it’s not impossible.
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