PORT OF SPAIN: Win or lose, the match between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will be as much about maintaining a decent net run-rate as it will be about winning. For if any one of the teams capitulates completely, India's chances of making the Super 8s get a huge boost.
At present India's net run-rate stands at 2.51, which is much higher than Bangladesh (0.14) and much lower then Sri Lanka (4.86). If India beat Sri Lanka, their NRR will only get better.
India's big-hitting against Bermuda on Monday did them a world of good. It will now force Bangladesh to go for broke every time they step on the field. Bangladesh's highest ever ODI total is 301 for seven against Kenya, their best against Sri Lanka is 265 for nine and in their only ever match with Bermuda, they obtained 206 for 2 in 37.3 overs, while the Bermudans scored 205 for eight. Sri Lanka tallest score at the expense of Bangladesh is 309 for seven.
Theoretically, therefore, Bangladesh are not incapable of competitively raising their net run rate. But they have only one victory in 18 matches against Sri Lanka; and while it is true that they had defeated India also only once before, it is unlikely that the Sri Lankans will take the result for granted.
And then there is the small matter of Sanath Jayasuriya, Kumara Sangakkara, Muttiah Muralitharan and Chaminda Vaas. Each of these players are match-winners in their own right. The pitch at the Queens Park Oval seemed to ease out a bit on Monday and if the surface doesn't provide enough sting, then the Bangladeshi bowlers will struggle to keep the Sri Lankans quiet.
The Bangladeshis, on the other hand, will know that they are most likely to beat Bermuda in their final league encounter on Sunday. But in the match against Lanka, they will be an inspired team; inspired by the thought that a victory against them would virtually assure them of a slot in the Super 8s.
In Mashrafe bin Mortaza, Bangladesh have a bowler capable of making dents in the finest batting line-ups but while their bowling has always been decent, it is their batting that will be a worry. Tamim Iqbal Khan is a strokemaker in the Sehwag-mould, just as capable of getting out early as he is of playing the big shots.
Sakib Al Hassan, Mushfiqur Rahim and Habibul Bashar provide the steadying influence.
But the one area where Bangladesh stands heads and shoulders above most of the teams in this World Cup is their fielding. With nine players in the playing eleven below 24, you should see the Bangladeshis bring about some pretty stunning stops in the field.
The match maybe a close one or it might be a complete blow out. But rest assured that Bangladesh's victory against India was achieved through good cricket and they will give Sri Lanka a good fight.
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