will germany continue to bailout eurozone? - Page 2

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LovelyPlanet thumbnail
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Posted: 12 years ago
#11

Originally posted by: King-Anu

looks like Miss Lonely0planet is busy solving world's economic problems. lol.

unfortunately i have no idea what this topic is about. however Mr. Num and Mr. Wine are on the task.

😆.. whole world is trying to solve world's economy without much success..i was busy merely justifying the money im paid..😛
Edited by lonely0planet - 12 years ago
LovelyPlanet thumbnail
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Posted: 12 years ago
#12

Originally posted by: BirdieNumNum

damned if they do, damned if the Germans don't bail out the PIGS and others.


first some history. The Germans were amongst the biggest beneficiaries of a common currency (ECU). They went from a deutsche mark (DM) that was north of 1.60 to a relatively cheaper ECU. It made their industries more competitive, drove up their exports, and allowed them to amass billions. They then turned around and started extending loans to the PIGS.Of course, the Greeks and the rest were only to happy to dodge taxes, lead a lazy mediterranean life, have off-shore money, and let the Germans invest into their countries.

It was going great till the US sneezed. That's when europe caught a cold, and banks such as Deutsche bank that were minting money started having a tough time (they currently fall way short of Basel III capital requirements).

so if you look at it from both an ethical and an economic standpoint, the Germans should/ will have to pony up.

meanwhile, Merkel is in a bind. If she doesnt bail out the eurozone, the german economy takes a dive too and she also exposes German banks such as DB to bad loans. If she forks over the cash, she's seen as spending it on the lazy Greeks and the Italian cheats.

as for France, dont even get me started. They are a socialist country, withe verything from education to health paid for by the state. They wont be able to compete ion their own.

bottom-line, let's not be naive in thinking that politicians and economic policy makers havent thought through much of this.Of course, their response has been plodding and it has made matters worse because of their indecisiveness. It has kept markets on edge for example and by introducing uncertainty, it has jacked up risk premiums. But If the Germans continue to bail out the euro-zone, it's not because they are trying to be good samaritans..That assumption would be the height of naivete. 😊

if you want to keep digging history then should also know that after world war II Allied forces (US, UK and former Soviet) forced Germany's industrial disarmament and moved those industries to their home countries. US is guilty of stealing German patents(between 1945-1950) and using these for own industries. "U.S. pursued a vigorous program to harvest all technological and scientific know-how as well as all patents in Germany". It was estimated to be of amount $10 billion(60 years ago). Does it mean US should also help with the bailouts 😉? and no one cares whether you sympathize with germans of not.

its debatable again if Germany was benefitted from cheaper Euro. But experts do seem to suggest Deutche Mark could have been better than Euro for Germany had they not switched. At least they were wiser with the last Cyprus bailout, but will be pressurised soon to pump in money once Slovenia and the rest of the EZ countries show signs. Now that eurocrats have lost the knack to save these countries, they should start thinking of breaking Eurozone into 2 zones at least(northern and southern). Putting every country for austerity measures isn't going to help anyone here except endless recessions.
They already have ever poorer neighbours(latvia, lithania and romania) lining up to jump on the euro train. UK and Poland wont be able to remain opt-outs forever either. Imagine Germans, French, UK and Latvian sharing the same currency? how on earth is it ever going to work?
Lastly, Basel III is a joke. Basel 1 and II were already in implementation when you guys were happily lending money to so called AAA rated mortgage based securities no?. Now when these banks are supposed to help ailing economies, regulators want to play their own game and as if there are no rogue regulators.
Edited by lonely0planet - 12 years ago
LovelyPlanet thumbnail
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Posted: 12 years ago
#13

@ Bold: Yehahaha ...😆 ..Exactly ...And this reminds me of Physics without the TOE ...😆 ...The problem that we can see right now I guess is the tip of the Iceberg ..I believe the entire economic framework of he Euro zone has been hampered badly. Bonds buyback, Stimulus and Austerity << Now this is the funniest of all. Are they gonna help the scruffy economies become virgil? The best solution according to me is the split. I mean just separate the rotten apples from the bunch and your good ones would start selling again. Bailing out those nations with printed money ( Especially when they know that austerity would further weaken their economies as the purchasing power would be forcefully abated ) is not gonna help. Its like You taking responsibility for someone else's sins ...
The greatest risks I apprehend here are A. The unwinding of Carry trade ( And we just know it's depth. Japs had gone haywire borrowing from their government and deploying that fortune in other nations and assets. ) The commodity prices may see an artificial collapse ..Lowering of the YEN and Renminbi might help their own exports but then they ain't taking into consideration the over picture. If the US bonds see a sell off ( And US banks are sunk as far deep into this Euro Mess as the banks there I bet ) it ll be a disaster leading to another Lehman like crisis ? ..😆 ..And then all that people could do would be to watch those MSNBC chics << Their only cute rays of hopes ...Erin Burnett ? Becky quick ? ...😆

and B. The delay in the US Fed policy decisions ..The way they procrastinate hoping for some magic to happen. Like they did in 08 ..You must be remembering ..Every one was wailing over the sub prime mess and then those policy makers still went ahead to raise the Def rates for 17 times ..<<<< 😆 ..How bloody funny ...😆

Hm ..So my overall view is dump the PIIGS and let the nightmare pass by ..Endure a decade of trouble than a Life Long paralysis...😆

Vintu...😛
Lehman like crisis?? you are comparing apples to oranges here.. in US they had to bailout their own bank and no one came forward.. BOA, GS .. they expected Brit bank to buy it 😆..
Congress favoured GS over lehman. Did i hear european countries fight with each other? At least they are nt doing something what US did to Iraq..
Here one country is bailing out another.. Look at the history.. has US bailed out anyone ever? Haiti is right under US nose and conditions there are worse than some of the African countries.. what more do I need to say?
Edited by lonely0planet - 12 years ago

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