Originally posted by: hindu4lyf
Most of the time, a weak currency just means high levels of inflation. The rupee is pretty weak right now which is great news for those wanting to travel to India. A few months ago we'd get 70rs for 1 pound and now we'd get round about 80rs but as we've seen by members of the public slapping MPs (lol), it just helps fuel ridiculous levels of inflation. Fact is eventually this is likely to affect the growth of a country too. We all saw what happened with Greece and their debt crisis but if they weren't part of the Eurozone then I get the feeling that they may not have part of their debt written off and nor would they have gotten help from other European countries. I don't see more people travelling to Greece and Italy despite a weak Euro.😛
No doubt the disadvantages outweigh the advantages so I don't consider a weak pound/Euro to generally be 'good for the economy'.
You don't see the advantages of weak currency because Europe and USA have basically been consumer economies, not supplier or labor economies. The consumer wants purchasing power, more value for their currency. 80 Rs a pound is better than 70 Rs a pound. If you step out of consumer more and look at supplier mode, inflation is very good to a certain extent.
China and India to a certain extent are notorious for devaluing their currency. The government prefers to ride out some inflation to avoid revaluing currency at a higher value. This is very bad for the customer in China and India. From a big picture perspective though it means growing GDP and growing exports.
The GDP in quantity may remain the same, but inflation just increased the value creating the bubble of a growing economy. Secondly, if I can get 80 Rs instead of 70 Rs, my purchasing power instantly jumped by 10 Rs. As a business, the more purchasing power I have the more I invest there. This is how China and the likes keep FDI flowing in.
In the case of China it also maintains debt at a higher value. China has been systematically buying American debt. If you used a floating currency model the Yuan and the dollar are almost par. By keeping the Yuan devalued the debt China owns is very valuable and has high yield. If they fairly traded Yuan at the floating exchange, their debt would be par with current currency. Their debt loses value, their exports lose value, their GDP goes down and they will actually start incurring deficit as trade now flows in not out.
So while the average consumer may be squeezed and pissed off at a falling Euro, in the grand scheme of things it can be profitable. In fact induced inflations are one mechanism of reducing trade deficits. The challenge Europe and USA pose is that they are not supply driven but consumer driven economies. They cannot release the steam of trade deficits through inflation and change the patterns - because they are so consumption dependent. A lot of the crisis can be alleviated if we force the Yuan onto floating market currency. But since China is China, US and UK may actually have to get their hands dirty in the currency war.