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SARABJIT is directed by Omung Kumar, who in the past directed MARY KOM which was well-appreciated by the audience (the 5th most appreciated film of 2014 by the audience of India, according to Ormax Media) and did decent business at the box office.
SARABJIT seems like it will be well-appreciated by the audience. However, the film may have some shortcomings. Because of the fact that it seems to be such a dark, emotional film, and that too more so involving Punjabi characters, the film will fare best at North India (multiplexes). Other areas of India will not fare so well, especially in South. I feel that in the non-North circuits of India, the audience may not want to see such a dark/emotional film based on a Punjabi character. If the film was a light-hearted/entertainment type of film, then yes, the audience in the non-North circuits would have given the film more of a chance.
Another shortcoming could be Aishwarya Rai. I do feel that she may pick up some Best Actress nominations for this role at several year-end film award functions, especially given the fact that she is a part of a powerful film family (the Bachchans). However, there is a question about if Ashwarya can pull off this type of role, and I do feel that her performance will meet with mixed feedback by the audience. Some have already criticized her Punjabi accent and acting in the trailer.
Randeep Hooda, who plays the role of Sarabjit...for some reason, through the trailer, it doesn't really seem like he will make the audience emotional. I'm not sure if it's his acting or his characterization, but through the trailer, something seems off.
All in all, I feel that the film will find appreciation with a very small section of the audience(multiplex audience in North India), given the Punjabi background and the dark/emotional/depressing nature which will limit the audience that comes to see the film and will reduce repeat viewing, and this may not allow costs to be recovered unfortunately. A few reviews that I have skimmed through seem mixed, which is a danger sign for a film that is relying on word of mouth more than anything.
The opening day collection will be similar to JAZBAA, and may not grow from there as WOM (Word of Mouth) from around majority of India won't be very positive.
Opening Day: 4 crores net
Opening Weekend: Approx. 15 crores net
Lifetime Collections: 25+ crores net
Overall Box Office Verdict: Flop
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