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Shah Rukh Khan. The name says it all. Naam toh suna hi hoga. The biggest worldwide star of Bollywood with millions and millions of fans around the world. His name is enough to draw audiences to the theatre, and proof of this is the fact his last box office Flop was way back in 2005 with PAHELI!
It's been 14 months since SRK's last film released in theatres. CHENNAI EXPRESS broke all sorts of record when it released, including the biggest record: highest lifetime grosser in India, a record that belonged to 3 Idiots for 4 years.
It's time for SRK's next film! There are plenty of other reasons as well that make HAPPY NEW YEAR even more special. This film marks the return of the SRK-Farah Khan actor-director combo, who have delivered some huge hits before with MAIN HOON NA and OM SHANTI OM, with the latter being the biggest Blockbuster of 2007 and was at the time fighting with DHOOM 2 for highest lifetime grosser. HAPPY NEW YEAR also marks the return of the SRK-Deepika Padukone pairing, who have delivered two huge Blockbusters together in the past with OM SHANTI OM and CHENNAI EXPRESS. Also, it is the return of the OM SHANTI OM trio of SRK-Deepika-Farah Khan!
If that's not enough, there are a bunch of other actors in the film too! Abhishek Bachchan, Sonu Sood, Boman Irani, newcomer Vivaan Shah, and the film's villain, Jackie Shroff.
Oh and I haven't even mentioned yet, this film also marks the return of SRK's best release period: Diwali! Some of his biggest box office successes/most remembered films have released on Diwali, including DILWALE DULHANIA LE JAYENGE, DIL TO PAGAL HAI, KUCH KUCH HOTA HAI, MOHABBATEIN ,VEER ZAARA, etc
However, when the lights dim in the theatre, it is the content that does the talking. If the audience is entertained in those 3 hours, the film works. If not, then the film has a tough time sustaining its box office collections.
Now, time to analyse HAPPY NEW YEAR in-depth!
The theatrical trailer of HAPPY NEW YEAR released in August and received a mixed response. There were those who liked the trailer, but there was another huge section that gave the trailer a thumbs down and started comparing the film to Farah Khan's last film which had huge negativity, TEES MAAR KHAN. The response to the trailer was a bit worrying as there was some negativity.
Luckily, things changed for the better afterwards. The India Waale song promo came out and it got a good response from the public. The Manwa Laage song promo came next and it got a tremendous response from the public as it trended on twitter for a couple days straight. The Lovely song created history by being the first Hindi song released exclusively on YouTube to garner 1 million views in 9 hours. The songs in general seem like they will be chartbusters after the film releases. India Waale, Manwa Laage, Lovely will all be topping the music charts. The other songs in the film too such as Satakli and Sharabi can be huge as well with the public, with the former possibly appealing huge to Hindus with its "Radhe Radhe" lyrics and Sharabi possibly working big with Punjabis. Also, SRK's 8 pack abs (which were also shown in the Manwa Laage song promo) have garner a lot of attention. His role in the film has an interesting element as well as he is a street fighter in the film. Basically, a lot of things for the film have gotten a positive response after that mixed response to the theatrical trailer.
HAPPY NEW YEAR will take an earth-shattering opening at the box office and looks all set to break the opening day record of DHOOM 3. DHOOM 3, released on a non-holiday, collected 36 crores in its combined Hindi, Tamil, and Telegu versions. HAPPY NEW YEAR on the other hand is coming on a major holiday. The biggest crowd pullers in DHOOM 3 were Aamir Khan and Katrina Kaif, and both Shah Rukh Khan and Deepika Padukone are just as big stars as Aamir and Katrina. Even though Deepika's films this year have not worked too well at the box office (KOCHADAIIYAAN with Rajnikanth and FINDING FANNY) and there is a growing concern that this year will not be good for her if HAPPY NEW YEAR under performs, there is no doubt that she is still a huge star as one can't ignore her phenomenal run at the box office in 2013. Other than the four superstars mentioned (Aamir, Katrina, SRK, Deepika) there were of course other reasons as well that created huge hype for DHOOM 3 and HAPPY NEW YEAR respectively.
The big question everyone is wondering is if HAPPY NEW YEAR can be the first film to touch the 40 crore mark on its opening day, but there are a few factors that go against it. HAPPY NEW YEAR is one of the longest big films in recent times, as the final length is said to be around 2 hours 59 minutes and 50 seconds. That means that the film will have less shows throughout the day. There are some Tamil movies as well such as Tamil star Vijay's film KATHTHI (directed by major director A.R. Murgadoss) and POOJAI starring Vishal and Shruti Haasan. Both films will affect the opening day collections of HAPPY NEW YEAR in South India. So, I feel that the opening day collection of HAPPY NEW YEAR will be record-breaking (beating DHOOM 3) but the opening day collection will not touch the 40 crore mark, especially if there turns out to Negative WOM being spread by some of the audience which would dent collections of evening shows.
The early response towards HAPPY NEW YEAR from those who have seen it is positive and Indicine has said that the pre-release reports are excellent, although they also mentioned that it is same case for most big films, especially those starring SRK. There was also a positive review of the film a couple of days back by the censors. What really caught my attention was the positive tweet from Anupam Kher who seems to be a very intelligent man in real life and he praised the film, calling it superbly entertaining. If he has liked it, then that should be good news for the film.
However,everyone has a different opinion and at the end of the day it is all about the public's reaction to a film. I feel that the film's WOM (Word of Mouth) in India amongst the public will be extremely mixed. The masses/single screen audience will probably enjoy the film more, as the songs, dances, action scenes, India waale patriotism (this element should work with multiplex audience as well), SRK/Jackie Shroff possibly having powerful hero/villain confrontations in the film, will all appeal to the masses.
The kids will probably enjoy the film as well, as things like Nonsense Ki Night song,the funny costumes/dances of the actors, the part where SRK and Boman are saying something about "World Dance Championship" with their fingers in their mouths, all of these parts are very appealing for kids. If kids enjoy the film and if some of the adult content is limited (Deepika's character looks bold and sexy and parts like where the team said "madar" and SRK says "chod na yaar") then the family audience will come in hordes with their kids and make the film a huge grosser.
The urban youth (teens/young adults) may not like the film as the over-the-top comedy and action (such as when SRK is on the building with yellow pants and punches the guy making him slide back) will not be liked by the urban youth. That part that the kids will enjoy (finger in mouth scene of SRK and Boman) will be hated by the urban youth (teens/young adults). The class/multiplex audience in general (especially at high-end premium multiplexes) won't like the film as much as the masses/single screen audience. The film's promos are being criticized by some for looking tacky and outdated, some even feeling this will turn out to be another RA ONE for SRK in terms of negativity and under-performing at the box office. HAPPY NEW YEAR having negative WOM amongst multiplex/class audience (and maybe other audience types as well) can't be ruled out.
Performance wise, it seems that Shah Rukh Khan will receive the most appreciation from the audience. His performance seems very mature and is not over-the-top (unlike other actors in the film). His beard in the film does remind one of his mature roles in films like CHAK DE INDIA and JAB TAK HAI JAAN. The dialogue in HAPPY NEW YEAR where he says "humne ek din main jaana ki kismat badi kutti cheez hoti hai, saali kabhi bhi palat sakti hai" with anger towards Jackie Shroff is delivered in strong dialogue delivery by him and it builds interest to see his confrontation scenes with Jackie Shroff in the film.
Deepika Padukone may receive a mixed response for her performance (her accent/dialogues hasn't been as well-received as her accent/dialogues in CHENNAI EXPRESS), although she will receive a lot of appreciation for her sexy look and style in the Lovely song and her very Indian look and style in the Manwa Laage song.
Abhishek Bachchan's performance may not receive much appreciation from the audience as people are finding him over-the-top in the film's promos. It remains to be seen how the performances of the rest of the actors are received. Sonu Sood seems to have an important role as he has been shown with SRK a lot in the promos ( scene in theatrical trailer where they are walking together, Satakli song promo with SRK's solo part, etc).
I had a hard time thinking about predicting this film's final verdict. The main verdicts I had in mind were Semi Hit/Hit or Blockbuster. However, I will go with the latter. The film looks to be very profitable for the makers (the Slam tour itself was said to have recovered the whole budget), the other rights (music, satellite) and the huge box office collections will only add to it. There was a report that the film has been sold to Yash Raj Films (who are distributing the film worldwide) for 125 crores as Minimum Guarantee, and this amount should be easily recovered with the film's worldwide box office collections and Yash Raj Films will make profits. Also, every film in the last couple years that broke the opening day record (DHOOM 3, CHENNAI EXPRESS, EK THA TIGER, AGNEEPATH, etc) went on to become Super Hits at minimum, and I think HAPPY NEW YEAR will be a Blockbuster for this reason and other reasons as well. I feel it will be the masses/single screen audience and kids/family audience in India that will help take the film to huge lifetime collections, although with possible Negative WOM from class/multiplex audience, the film probably won't be as big of a lifetime grosser as DHOOM 3. Even getting to KICK's lifetime collection may be difficult because in the last couple years, no film released on Diwali has had better collections than the film released on Eid of the same year (last year's Diwali release KRRISH 3 may be an exception from some trade sources/producer figure, but according to BOI, its lifetime collections weren't as high as CHENNAI EXPRESS which released on Eid of the same year). Overall, I think HAPPY NEW YEAR will touch the 200 crore mark (all language versions) and at least beat the collections of 3 IDIOTS and maybe CHENNAI EXPRESS as well to become the third/fourth highest lifetime grosser ever in India just behind films like DHOOM 3 and KICK. RA ONE (all language versions) even with negative WOM became the fourth highest grosser ever in India at its time of release, and HAPPY NEW YEAR should at least have Mixed WOM so it will likely finish as third/fourth highest grosser ever in India.
There are no notable Bollywood films releasing until November 7 when THE SHAUKEENS releases, but the main actors in the film like Anupam Kher can't draw audiences to the theatre anyway and with Akshay Kumar having a smaller role, this film won't affect HAPPY NEW YEAR's collections much. The week after on November 14 KILL DILL will release, so HAPPY NEW YEAR has until then to collect its huge collections at the box office as KILL DILL will affect it a bit.
My Box Office Predictions for HAPPY NEW YEAR (all three language versions of Hindi, Tamil, and Telegu combined):
Opening Day: 38 crores (Opening Day record)
Opening Weekend: 100+ crores
Lifetime Collections: 200 crores
Overall Box Office Verdict: Blockbuster
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