Big Hype, Likely Small Profits as Tata Launches Nano
This photograph taken on January 10, 2008 shows the Tata "Nano" car in New Delhi.

With an expected price tag of 100,000 rupees (about $2,000) for dealers for the basic model, the Nano will be one of the world's cheapest cars, if not the cheapest. The company has so far declined to discuss details on costs, production plans, and profit margins. It's expected to reveal fresh information, such as the monthly production volumes and sales forecasts, on Monday at the launch event in Mumbai. Like auto makers the world over, Tata Motors is contending with slowing demand for its bread-and butter commercial vehicles in India as well as its luxury nameplates, Jaguar and Land Rover. The company plunged to its first quarterly net loss in seven years during the October-December 2008 quarter, and saw its debt cut by rating agencies. More pressingly, Tata Motors faces a June deadline to repay $2 billion in loans related to its Jaguar-Land Rover acquisition last year. Scrambling to raise money, it sold a 1.37% stake in group company Tata Steel Ltd. to Tata Sons Ltd., the parent of both Tata Motors and Tata Steel, for 3.59 billion rupees last year. Tata Motors is also laying plans to sell small stakes in six profitable unlisted units, according to local media reports. Undoubtedly, the Nano, with a 623-cubic centimeter, rear-gasoline-engine, symbolizes the global auto industry's rush to embrace affordable, lower-emission vehicles amid the economic expansion of developing nations from India to Brazil. Should the car succeed commercially, it could represent the coming-of-age of modern India's manufacturing prowess. But going by the auto industry's experience with small cars, the tiny upstart Nano won't be much of a money-spinner. Manufacturers have traditionally made razor-thin margins on smaller cars, using them to lure buyers only to try to up-sell them to more profitable makes as they grow in age and wealth. Indeed, the Nano's well-publicized affordability could prove to be a double-edged sword. On the one hand it might draw young and lower-income buyers. Yet it may be too low to significantly improve Tata Motors' consolidated revenue and profitability. Even if Tata Motors sells 100,000 Nano cars a year, it will still be insignificant for their overall profit and revenue. The car will make a fundamental difference to their financial performance. There's no place for a rating on Tata Motors shares. Other auto makers are pursuing their own versions of the Nano. Bajaj Auto Ltd., India's second-biggest motorcycle maker, is developing an inexpensive small car and have indicated they may join the low-price bandwagon. A company which controls half of India's car market through its joint venture Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., sells the 0.8-liter Maruti 800. The cheapest car in India for now it costs nearly twice as much as the Nano. The Nano is not seen as a game-changer today. In our current forecast scenario, people are hesitant to think about that. The (100,000 rupees) market price will be difficult to sustain over a long period of time given there is always a minimum material cost. India's enormous numbers of motorcycle buyers will upgrade to Nanos en masse because it's still more than three times the price of a modest two-wheeler and costs more to maintain. Initially, it may have an enthusiastic response but over time, the operating costs will tend to dampen that enthusiasm a bit. Generally it's a lot of publicity, it's a lot of brand recognition globally than actual volumes. Behind the marketing hoopla, the Nano has had its share of setbacks. Most notably a planned West Bengal manufacturing site in which Tata Motors had invested 15 billion rupees was abandoned last year following violent protests by a political party and farming groups over disputed land. The Nano will now be built, in batches and after a costly three-month delay, at existing Tata plants in Pune in western India and Pantnagar in the north; meantime, the company's investing about 20 billion rupees to build a dedicated Nano factory in Gujarat state. Ratan Tata, Tata Motors' chairman who heads the diversified Tata Group conglomerate, has said the Gujarat factory will have an initial capacity of 250,000 cars per year; that volume could eventually be doubled. But early production constraints will allow Tata Motors to build little more than 35,000 cars in 2009. The Nano's margin of profitability will be at least 5%, reflecting lower commodity prices and the federal government's excise-tax cuts on small cars in the past year. However, the Nano cost structure is based on high volumes. So, only when you make good use of the installed capacities, then you will start making good money on such products, which we believe will come only from fiscal year 2010-11 when we expect them to produce 300,000-400,000 units per year. Any kind of impact from the Nano on Tata's consolidated balance sheet would only come after 2-3 years.
NTPC to Add 3000 MW Capacity
Downturn Heightens China-India Tension on Trade
Shrinking Spats over toys, tires and iron ore are stoking tension between China and India, as the two Asian giants try to pry open each other's markets and soften the impact of the global economic slowdown.
China's exporters covet a growing India to help offset slowing demand from the U.S. Yet India is accusing Chinese companies of swamping its market with what it can't sell elsewhere, and has lodged antidumping cases against China at the World Trade Organization. The trade disputes are testing efforts to improve what's long been a prickly relationship between the two neighbors. We've always said the world is large enough for India and China, but we have a problem with a surge in exports that hurts Indian industry, said Indian commerce secretary, Gopal K. Pillai, in an interview. It's a cause for worry. On Thursday, officials from Indian and Chinese commerce ministries met in New Delhi to find common ground. The two governments agreed to set up a working group that would meet every few months on trade issues before they reach the WTO. Zhong Shan, China's vice trade minister, said Beijing wasn't considering retaliating against India, but didn't rule out taking future action at the WTO.
India briefly banned imports of Chinese-made toys this year. I believe both countries have the ability to talk through problems, he told reporters. Both economies can work out of the shadows of the current crisis together. The two nations often have touted their potential to join forces. Their growing economic heft and developing-country status could make them allies in setting prices for natural resources, partners at trade forums and big buyers of each other's goods, officials from both countries say. China is India's largest trade partner. Bilateral trade rose 34% to $51.78 billion in 2008 from the year earlier, according to Chinese government statistics. While trade has flourished, frictions haven't eased much and might be getting worse. Recent disputes highlight how tough times have hardened the economic rivalry. This year, India blocked Chinese toy imports for safety reasons before relaxing the ban for some products. On Wednesday, China raised India's toy ban during a WTO discussion on technical barriers to trade. India has about a dozen antidumping cases against China outstanding at the WTO, including investigations into export surges of truck tires and industrial chemicals. The disputes partly reflect the jostling of goliaths in a slowing global economy. India seems more reluctant than China to open domestic industries that haven't faced much foreign competition, according to Pranab K. Bardhan, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley who studies the Chinese and Indian economies. India is among the least globalized countries in the world, he says. India may not generate the same demand as the U.S., but its barriers to a big and growing market are cause for concern, says Wen Fude of the Institute of South Asian Studies at Sichuan University. Most of these trade frictions created by India towards China are unreasonable, he says. Indian officials counter that while China talks about free trade, what it practices is something different. Mr. Pillai, the commerce secretary, says Beijing subsidizes exporters, obstructs Indian farm imports and supports Chinese companies who prey upon vulnerable Indian industries. The fundamental problem is that China isn't a market economy, he says. A plaque at the commerce ministry entrance draws a clear distinction with its neighbor. India: Fastest Growing Free Market Democracy, it says.
Even in complementary trade areas, there have been problems recently. Indian trading companies have complained that Chinese steelmakers have backed away from orders of Indian iron ore after reducing production, causing major losses. Some see the potential for China and India to work through their differences by doing more business together. Having been through an infrastructure boom of its own, China could help India's build-out of roads, bridges and airports, according to Anil Gupta, a professor at University of Maryland and co-author of Getting China and India Right. Chinese executives who are doing business in India complain that distrust remains part of the commercial relationship. The two countries fought a 1962 border war, which India lost, and some of the territory between them remains unsettled. Chinese investments also have been subjected to rigorous security reviews; work visas have been a problem for some executives. Mr. Pillai says out of 38 proposals, only two Chinese projects have been rejected on security grounds; thousands of Chinese work in India without visa problems, he adds. India and China still are far from forging a broad economic alliance that some officials envision. Despite both countries clashing with the U.S. on farm imports at the Doha Round of trade talks, they continue to compete fiercely for export markets, energy assets and investment projects. Cooperation hasn't really worked, Mr. Pillai says.









