My Box Office Predictions for Shivaay

We have seen many extravagant, big-budget films featuring superstars and releasing on festivals over the years. In recent years, RA ONE, EK THA TIGER, DHOOM 3, and HAPPY NEW YEAR are some of the films that come in this category. This Diwali, another film is being added to the list: Ajay Devgn's SHIVAAY.

A lot has been said about SHIVAAY. The huge scale and budget that the film has been made on. The theatrical trailer was hailed as being a spectacular trailer by many, and became the most liked trailer at on YouTube at the time beating the number of likes that SULTAN's trailer had recorded. Also, the film marks Ajay Devgan's return to direction eight years after his directorial debut, U ME AUR HUM.

As I said, the theatrical trailer for SHIVAAY worked big time with viewers and gave the film tremendous hype. The scale, the action sequences, the dialogues, the title of the film (which would appeal to the Hindu largely during the festive time of Diwali) all clicked with viewers. Many were unsure of the film's story from that trailer, but felt that over time it would be a little more known about.

Unfortunately, the promos released afterwards failed to match up to the initial trailer, and added no buzz to the film. Bolo Har Har song is a hit, but none of the other songs have clicked with listeners. The dialogue promos have not contributed any buzz to the film either. However, the second theatrical trailer of the film was released yesterday and received a better response, but it has come too late to really turn around things in a huge way regarding the buzz.

What has happened in the last nearly two months is that the other film AE DIL HAI MUSHKIL has seen it's buzz increase hugely in large part due to its chartbusting songs. Nonetheless, even though AE DIL HAI MUSHKIL will take a better opening in multiplexes and bigger centres, SHIVAAY will take the lead at smaller/mass centres and single screens because of Ajay Devgan's presence and his film being more mass-friendly than ADHM with its huge-scale action sequences, it's dialogues, Bolo Har Har song, etc. Ajay Devgn's last film DRISHYAM collected 5.8 crores on its opening day (including paid previews) and given how much bigger SHIVAAY is, I would've gone with an estimate of 10 crores higher at 15 crores. However, the buzz has decreased, and now I feel the opening day will range from 12 crores-14 crores. I will go with the middle number, 13 crores.

How good or bad this film is, is a huge question. Personally, I feel that there is a bit of a weird mix in this film: it has the mass-appealing elements (huge-scale action sequences, it's dialogues, Bolo Har Har song, etc) but on the other hand, Ajay Devgn's direction style closely resembles a niche multiplex film with a narrative style that actually wouldn't appeal to the masses. Also, the intense, dark, emotional vibe of this film may not sit too well with the masses (including the ending scene in the second trailer where Ajay Devgn is seen crying, which has been well-performed by him by the way!). Not only do masses not typically like seeing the hero cry, but they also wouldn't want to watch an emotionally heavy film during Diwali period. KRRISH 3 also had a similar dark/intense vibe, but that film was meant to appeal to children as it was a superhero film and also succeeded. Also, there are many non-Indian faces in SHIVAAY (such as actress Erika whom Ajay is with in the film and his daughter in this film Abigail) which will make it hard for the traditional Indian audience (those at smaller centres/single screens) to really connect with the characters of this film. For these reasons, I actually feel that the class/multiplex audience will enjoy this film more than the mass/single screen audience. Ajay Devgn's last film as director U ME AUR HUM was also actually a multiplex film, but the film did fail at the box office and therefore, it is uncertain if this film will find much appreciation from the multiplex audience either. However, the emotions and family-based story could indeed connect with the multiplex audience. The film does carry a classy, Hollywood style look which will further appeal to the multiplex audience. Ajay Devgn has said before that most of the time, he knows before a film's release how the film has shaped up to be and if it will work and he does seem confident about the film as can be seen with his "#relaxed" tweet and the way he speaks at the end of the theatrical trailer videos about the film (he speaks about the great response to the first trailer and encourages viewers to book their tickets, calling it a "Shivaay wali Diwali"). However, what he sees as being a well-made film could be different for the audience in this case. Overall, I expect the film to have a Mixed All-India WOM (Word of Mouth).

An opening in the range of 13 crores with mixed WOM will be enough to take the film past the 100 crore mark given the Diwali period and the biggest holiday of the year on Monday (day after Diwali) but ultimately, I feel the film will just make it to the "Average" mark at the box office. Truth be told, another major problem with this film is that one of the producers is Pen India Limited, which has a long history of being associated with flop films (KAHAANI in 2012 is one of the exceptions). Trade analyst Rohit Jaiswal has said before that if the film earns between 120-140 crores it will be given "Average" verdict, and I expect the film to collect 120 crores net.

Opening Day: 13 crores net

Opening 3-Day Weekend: 35-40 crores net

Lifetime Collections: 120 crores net

Overall Box Office Verdict: Average

UPDATE (I wrote this update on Saturday, October 29, 2016): SHIVAAY is heading for box office disaster. The first day collection is only 10 crores net (lower than what was needed given the budget) and to make matters worse, the film is carrying Mixed WOM, as a result of which I feel that the lifetime collections will be somewhere in the range of 70 crores net, which will likely give the film Disaster verdict as approximately 130 crores net was needed just for the film to recover costs!

It should aim to cross BM and reach at least 200

AD did not handle the promotions well.

no ways. are u trying to say that ranbir is a bigger star than ajay. I am gona be shocked if shivaay gets lower collections then adhm. especially 1st day collections. I am very interested to see the collections after your predictions.
normally I always agree with u but I honestly think that shivaay looks like the better film and even it isn't , ajay is a better and bigger star than ranbir and his whole of team

This time both your predictions are wrong.

ADHM even if it is a good movie many many people will not watch it because of attacks and solidarity towards Army. It will have average collections like Udta Punjab.

People will instead flock to watch Shivaay.

I agree with your prediction on shivaay

Not sure about ADHM , but Shivaay definitely would be average .

The film's opening day collection has fallen short of what I was predicted (I predicted 13 and instead it was 10 crores net), but I was right about the film having a lower opening day collection than ADHM! I have also written an update on the front page (my initial post) about the film at the box office.

You were right it opened lower than ADHM

This proves Ajay is poor in scripting and direction. He will go back to his fav directors and Ekta-G3/4