My Box Office Predictions for Tevar

For those who may have not read it yet, here's the link to my box office predictions for PK and for some other films I can think of which I gave an accurate prediction to as well:

PK: http://www.india-forums.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=4252566

Happy New Year: http://www.india-forums.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=4200274

Haider: http://www.india-forums.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=4179827

Happy Ending: http://www.india-forums.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=4228121

Heropanti: http://www.india-forums.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=4032127

Holiday: http://www.india-forums.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=4044921

HSKD: http://www.india-forums.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=4087465

The Shaukeens: http://www.india-forums.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=4216064

(I noticed that many of these films started with the letter H 😆 maybe that's my lucky letter when it comes to predicting films accurately!)

There were other accurate predictions I made as well, as well as some inaccurate ones of course!

I do get Private Messages sometimes with people asking me questions, so feel free to ask! I try my best to answer questions the best that I can.

Now, time for my first prediction for a film in 2015!

TEVAR is a return back to the masala genre. The maar-dhaar type of films that have dominated Hindi cinema for decades, going back to the days of films like SHOLAY. These types of film have seen a comeback since 2008/2009 with GHAJINI/WANTED, but the comeback really came in 2010 with DABANGG because after DABANGG, majority of Hindi films released have been masala films with a very desi vibe to them and set in India, moving away from the urban films shot overseas (usually rom-coms) that dominated Bollywood post DILWALE DULHANIA LE JAYENGE.

Masala films have several ingredients that are put into them. A daring hero who packs punches to baddies to send them flying, manly dialogues, and item songs featuring a hot babe who may be the leading actress in the film.

TEVAR is no different. There's Arjun Kapoor as the hero, who is shown attacking baddies. There's promos of him delivering the manly dialogues. And there is also an item song (although more classier and on a bigger scale this time than usual masala movies) with Sonakshi dancing away to Radhe Radhe and Shruti Hasan is in a song as well.

As I said, TEVAR is no different...and that's the biggest problem! What novelty does TEVAR have to offer? None, actually. It's the SAME masala movie we've been seeing now for the past like 7 years. It's the SAME Arjun Kapoor role that he's been doing since his debut film ISHAQZAADE in 2012 (2 STATES and FINDING FANNY are the only two exceptions I can think of where he did a different type of role/film). Oh, and it's the same Sonakshi Sinha role that she has been doing in film after film after film after film after film after film after film! DABANGG, ROWDY RATHORE, SON OF SARDAR, DABANGG 2, OUATIMD, BULLET RAJA, R RAJKUMAR, ACTION JACKSON...all the same role! The only exception I can think of where she did a different role was LOOTERA.

Oh, and if that's not enough for lack of novelty, here's more: TEVAR is a remake of the 2003 Telegu film OKKADU.

Masala films still work today, as films like DHOOM 3, HAPPY NEW YEAR, EK THA TIGER, etc were all very successful at the box office. However, all of these films were on a grand scale and had a more classier vibe to them. The desi type masala films with a rustic feel (the ones shot in India, on a smaller scale, and meant mainly to appeal to the smaller centres of India) such as HIMMATWALA, BESHARAM, ACTION JACKSON, BOSS, BULLET RAJA, SINGH SAHAB THE GREAT, ZILA GHAZIABAD, POLICEGIRI, etc have all flopped/underperformed at the box office in recent times. These type of films, the desi type masala films I have just mentioned, do not work much at the box office now, and this is a big problem for TEVAR!

In this decade so far (2010-present), the highest opening day collection for a film in January that did NOT release during Republic Day period is YAMLA PAGLA DEEWANA, which collected 7.95 crores on its opening day in 2011. (according to Bollywood Hungama figures). Therefore, this is the opening day collection that TEVAR will target, although YPD did have the edge of releasing during Lohri period. The opening of TEVAR will be best in mass centres. MATRU KI BIJLEE KA MANDOLA has the second highest opening day collection in January non-Republic Day period so far this decade as it collected 7.02 crores (according to Bollywood Hungama figures). So TEVAR is looking to have an opening day collection somewhere around the 7 crore mark, as it will collect more than MATRU KI BIJLEE KA MANDOLA and maybe will collect on the same level as YAMLA PAGALA DEEWANA. YPD and MKBKM also have highest lifetime collections for non-Republic Day period January releases this decade, with lifetime collections 55.28 crores and 41 crores respectively (according to Bollywood Hungama figures). TEVAR will have higher lifetime collections than MKBKM, but will have lower lifetime collections than the successful YPD.

The WOM (Word of Mouth) for the film will likely be mixed. The audience in smaller centers may appreciate the film, but the WOM in big cities/big centres will be Mixed to Negative, with many likely to give the film a thumbs down due to lack of novelty. Audience in bigger cities/bigger centres don't want to see the same type masala film over and over again. The long run time of TEVAR (2 hours 36 minutes) only makes matters worse as audience may get bored and repeat value will be reduced amongst the audience.

The promos of the film have been annoying, especially the Superman song promo with Arjun Kapoor talking about mixing Rambo, Terminator, and Salman Bhai to produce him (Arjun Kapoor) and this other dialogue promo where Arjun Kapoor says something about letting his hands do the talking to the baddies. The public would maybe like this kind of stuff if it was a big star saying these type of dialogues, but coming from the relatively younger/less of a star Arjun Kapoor will not really attract audience, especially given the fact that audience usually gives a thumbs down to these rustic desi masala movies when a star not named Salman, Shahrukh, Aamir, or Hritikh is doing this type of film.

Also, the box office hurricane PK is not looking to stop its run yet, and this will also affect the collections of TEVAR as many still be wanting to watch PK this weekend. PK had lots of novelty in the film, so why would urban audience in India now instead be interested in a desi masala film that looks similar to many other desi masala films released in the last many years, a film which looks to have no novelty? (TEVAR). Multiplex business plays a huge role in today's business, and that especially is where TEVAR will lack! Also, TEVAR's budget seems big (Sonakshi's Radhe song itself had a lot of money spent on it) so recovering costs for TEVAR will prove to be difficult.

TEVAR also has a poor release date, with films released near the beginning of January usually not doing well at the box office.

My Box Office Predictions for TEVAR:

Opening Day: 7.5 crores net

Opening Weekend: 20 crores net

Lifetime Collections: 40+ crores net

Overall Box Office Verdict: Flop

Hamein ap ka yeh tevar pasand aaya

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This is not my kind of a movie so will skip it ...themovie for me in the month of Jan is BABY ! Looking forward to that .

Your prediction seems correct ...at the best will be average fare I guess ...

Nice prediction 😊

Prediction might turn to be true but I can't help but go and see this Masala movie.. what can I say I am a suck for this types of movies and also Arjun Kapoor 😆

People don't trust her choices anymore and she is always there. Like she needs to disappear for some time to build some excitement.

Like had there been alia in this one, i am sure the movie would have created a lot more hype. Also arjun and alia had a rock on pairing in 2 states

Sonakshi and arjun lack chemistry despite all the attempts to talk about their apparent relation and break up etc..it didn't work

wah wah👏😆