My Box Office Predictions for SINGHAM RETURNS

The biggest achievement for the film, of course, was the fact that in India, it broke the 4- year-long lifetime record of 3 Idiots, thus becoming the second Hindi film ever at the time to do 200+ crores business!

Naturally, when Rohit Shetty gets back into the director's chair after CHENNAI EXPRESS, the expectations are huge. Rohit Shetty's next directorial venture, SINGHAM RETURNS, releases this Friday on Independence Day!

SINGHAM, released in 2011, is one of those films that not many people hate. Even though it is a masala film, there is nothing in it that is considered too illogical or silly about it by the audience, and thus it holds appeal for both masses and classes. The dialogues, performances, etc were all praised hugely by majority of the audience, and that also explains why the film was a Super Hit in India and became only the 6th film (at the time) to reach the 100 crore mark in India.

Ajay Devgan has a had a down period at the box office since 2013, as both of his last two releases (HIMMATWALA and SATYAGRAHA) failed to make a mark at the box office.

Having said that, there is no denying that SINGHAM RETURNS is still a huge film. Ajay Devgan has had a down period, sure, but when has the Ajay Devgan-Rohit Shetty ever gone wrong at the box office? GOLMAAL, GOLMAAL RETURNS, GOLMAAL 3, SINGHAM, BOL BACHCHAN, are all examples of the kind of success that this actor-director pairing has enjoyed at the box office. The rare time they did go wrong was way back in 2003, which by coincidence was Rohit Shetty's first film as a director: ZAMEEN (starring Ajay Devgan, Abhishek Bachchan, Bipasha Basu).

There is no denying that Ajay Devgan-Rohit Shetty is one of the biggest actor-director combos in India!

Also, there is another factor here to consider: the heroine factor. The first SINGHAM didn't have any major heroine in it that could lure in the audience (Kajal Aggarwal), whereas SINGHAM RETURNS does have a major heroine in it: Kareena Kapoor. Her role is likely to be limited, but she will be able to succeed in luring in some of the audience. For Kareena Kapoor fans who are waiting for a film that would give her the scope/chance to shine as a performer and once again return to her spot as one of the top female film stars of India, they would most likely have to wait for next year's Salman Khan starrer BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN. Director Kabir Khan provides heroines with a role that give them scope to shine (Katrina Kaif in EK THA TIGER is an example of this as she had a big role in the film) and a similar thing could happen in BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN.

Even though both Ajay Devgan and Kareena Kapoor's last few films have failed to work at the box office, SINGHAM RETURNS is all set to take a phenomenal opening on it's Independence Day national holiday opening day. The major crowd puller for the film is definitely Rohit Shetty, who's last film CHENNAI EXPRESS was a historic Blockbuster and even before that he has had several 100 crore films to his credit (BOL BACHCHAN, SINGHAM, etc). In a recent survey conducted by Ormax Media called "Director's Equity Survey" (which measures the ability of directors to pull audiences to theatres on their own strength without any star support), Rohit Shetty was ranked #1. There are other factors too that will contribute to SINGHAM RETURNS' huge opening: the star power of Ajay and Kareena, the SINGHAM brand, the national holiday, the positive response to the theatrical trailer by the public (showing the theatrical trailer with KICK was a smart move, as many got a chance to see the trailer, and with much of Salman's fan base being the masses, the trailer would lure the same mass audience to come to see the massy film SINGHAM RETURNS).

The makers couldn't have asked for a better release date, as Independence Day correlates perfectly with the Indian feel and theme of righteousness and justice that is likely to be shown in the film. The opening day should be about 10 crores higher than Ajay's last film SATYAGRAHA (which also had Kareena in it), and will be about 10 crores less than the biggest openers like CHENNAI EXPRESS and DHOOM 3 (both films had a Khan). Overall, SINGHAM RETURNS is looking at an opening day in the 20+ crore range. To make another comparison, it's opening day is likely to be higher than BESHARAM, which also released on a national holiday, with the difference being that SINGHAM RETURNS has strong pre-release buzz compared to BESHARAM which had relatively low pre-release buzz. According to Ormax Media, SINGHAM RETURNS buzz and appeal, in relative comparison to others film in 2014 released so far, is just behind KICK and JAI HO.

I am sure that the film will get strong WOM by the Indian audience. Rohit Shetty never fails to entertain the masses. The classes will probably like this film too, although the over-the-top action might not work too much with them. One major problem for SINGHAM RETURNS that will severely reduce it's repeat value for the audience is lack of hit songs. The only song that may have made somewhat of a positive impact on the audience is the Aata Majhi Satakli song, but it is not quite certain yet if that song really has become popular with the public in India or not. Even with that, it can't be denied that there has been some severe criticism for this song as well. I feel that due to lack of hit songs, the lifetime collections of SINGHAM RETURNS will be similar to JAI HO and HOLIDAY. JAI HO and HOLIDAY are amongst the biggest grossers of the year so far, and they have similarities with SINGHAM RETURNS as all three films are action films with the main character being a nation-serving man (Salman was an army man, Akshay was also in the army, and Ajay is a police officer). All three films lack hit music as well. SINGHAM RETURNS should still end up getting a higher lifetime total than both JAI HO and HOLIDAY though: JAI HO lacked a good director, HOLIDAY lacked a big opening, but SINGHAM RETURNS will have both a big opening and a director who's films always entertain the audience, thus getting SINGHAM RETURNS to collect more in it's lifetime total than HOLIDAY and JAI HO. SINGHAM RETURNS will be the second biggest grosser of the year, just behind KICK, but of course this will all change as the year goes on.

There isn't much competition for SINGHAM RETURNS in the coming weeks, as films like MARDANI and RAJA NATARWAL will have to rely more on word of mouth to make an impact. KICK will be entering it's fourth week as of this Friday and therefore won't affect the collections of SINGHAM RETURNS. ENTERTAINMENT is doing reasonably well, but it will lose many of it's screens at single screens theatres to SINGHAM RETURNS.

The film has reportedly been sold for heavy prices though (going by what distributor Gaurav Gaur has said), and therefore it could be a case where the makers end up making profits while the distributors may have some losses given the lifetime collection the film is looking to have.

My Box Office Predictions for SINGHAM RETURNS:

Opening Day: 23 crores

Opening Weekend: 60+ crores

Lifetime Collections: 120+ crores

Overall Box Office Verdict: Hit

weekend 60cr around

lifetime 125-130 cr

super hit

Ya he needs to be giving big grossers to stay in the top 5. The Khans (and maybe Hritikh) have all already made their entry into the 200 crore mark. Ranbir was close as well with YJHD. Just Ajay and Akshay are currently falling behind.

Singham Returns needed better songs in order to have potential for higher lifetime collections, I feel.

Singham 1 was also having not chartbuster song, only title song was peppy n it was popular. This time Rohit/Ajay should have done some work on Music, only Aata Majhi satakli is being popular to some extent, but not that crowd puller in Single Screens.

So again SR is depending on Content, As per trailer, i was disappointed 2 see same Singham Background score, even dialogues, so hope movie is not the same kind with just some new plot. Villain is also week, not finding amul gupte as impressive as Prakash raj was.

might be 17-20 range..

I feel that lack of chartbuster songs was a factor for Singham 1 just doing touch-and-go 100 crores business. The film did very well, but it could have done even better and possibly gained Blockbuster status with hit songs.

20+ Hoga hi Hoga... BIG Independence Day + THEME Similar Patriotic, after a long time any Big film landing with this theme on Independence day + Part 1 was highly appreciated.

So a big hype is here, 20+ hoga hi hoga.

Only a handful of movies have gone above the 160cr plus mark, and majority of those films involved one of the three Khans. The only non-Khan ones were Krrish 3 and YJHD, but Krrish is one of the biggest franchises in India and had a very grand feel to it, and YJHD had chartbuster songs.

Singham Returns lacks chartbuster songs that YJHD had and although Singham is a big brand, it is not as big of a brand as Krrish.