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P.S. :- This article came in our daily newspaper, is written by Akash Deoras.I am just sharing this piece of information with everyone.It is my personal request to everyone who reads this article to PLEASE close their eyes for a minute to pray to God to the souls of people who lost their lives so that their souls rests in peace.
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The massive and very unfortunate disaster at Kedarnath region in Uttarakhand has exposed a lot of things regarding illegal constructions along the river banks, poor disaster management in our nation and many similar things.However, not many people knew that it was possible to avoid the deaths and injuries due to this incident !!!! You must be thinking that I am referring to the actions like stopping illegal constructions etc... but to be frank I am not !!! Indeed the things like illegal constructions along the river sides intensified this disaster but one can't do anything when they have already been constructed.In fact, I am referring to the delayed, inappropriate so called Weather Warning which was issued after the rains started impacting Uttarakhand.
Many people still think that its impossible to predict/forecast the weather for a region and hence the flash floods at Kedarnath were completely Nature's fury which humans can't control, but the weather isn't that unpredictable as one thinks.I am(the writer) a weather forecaster and I know the reality.We live in the year 2013 when weather forecasting has become relatively easier and more accurate, reliable than it was many years ago.
Today there are various supercomputers belonging to various agencies like National Weather Service(NWS), USA which compute various equations of fluid dynamics, thermodynamics along with real time weather conditions at regular intervals and generate simulation which shows upcoming weather patterns in a region.Its called a Numerical Weather Prediction which is an integral part of weather forecasting.For a common man, the charts, the diagram and graphs made by Numerical Weather Predictions are like Geography Maps i.e., showing various details in various colors, shades over a geographical region, but for a weather forecaster, they are vital things of forecasting a weather.There are many such models belonging to various countries/agencies.
A very appropriate weather forecasting model is GFS(Global Forecast System) which is operated by NWS, USA.Usually such forecast models give forecast for a period of around 15/20 days which are called as 'long range forecasts.'However they are very unstable and keep changing for a region from time-to-time.However, they give a rough idea of the upcoming weather and becomes more accurate for a period of around 5 days which is called as 'short range forecasts.'
Thus if one closely monitors the long forecasts, one can get an idea of how severe the weather can be in the coming days and when it comes to a short range forecast, the responsible authority can be alerted if the forecast shows heavy rains in a region particularly for Kedarnath, Uttarakhand like risky pilgrims areas where lacks of tourists go every year and which is prone to landslides and other natural disasters.It surprises me why there isn't any provisions for round the clock monitering of 'Char Dham Yatra' weather and subsequent alert system.For Amarnath Yatra, there is a provision for weather forecast on this route.
LET'S NOW READ WHEN WARNING WAS ISSUED :-
The first weather warning regarding a possibility of heavy rains in Uttarakhand came on the night of June 14 2013 and a public notice was given on 15 June 2013 evening by the weather department which can be seen on their website, probably the weather department did not imagine that such flash floods will happen.As per confirmed news report, people at Kedarnath area weren't told about this warning.To their surprise heavy rains struck the area and flash floods took away everything in seconds.Evacuation came into effect after rains devastated the area on June 16, June 17 2013 prominently.
As the weather warning was issued very late, the authorities at Kedarnath couldn't evacuate people nor they stopped people going to the shrine which clearly means that no kept a close eye on the weather.Using the long range/short range weather forecasts i.e., the weather in that area was being neglected unless rains commenced in the area on June 14, June 15 2013.
I myself remember that the GFS weather models were showing a strong possibility of heavy rains rainfall in Uttarakhand and other parts of North India particularly since many days before the main event happened.Had the local authorities been alerted well in advanced about the upcoming heavy rainfall, they would have stopped the entry to Kedarnath shrine and would have brought the people at the temple back to safer places well before the rains commenced. As it wasn't done, people got killed.Hundreds of dead bodies were seen piled on each other and many are still missing.All due to delayed weather warning.
Another thing to worry is that the weather is being taken too lightly in our nation.People aren't bothered about the weather and even they don't know what is to be done in severe weather, especially what techniques can save life.Still many people stand under a tree during lightning in our nation.We must learn from countries like USA.On May 20 2013 the most intense of its kind, an EF 5 tornado struck a town called Moore in Oklahoma state with winds around 340 km/hr !!! Due to advanced alert system like tornado sirens, advanced infographics and disaster management of the residents, only 23 persons were killed.
As per today's trend, if anything like that tornado hits any area in India, thousands will be killed on the spot !!
Amarnath Yatra has started and so is Naagdwar Yatra(Pachmarhi, Madhya Pradesh). People going there must check the weather in their stray and read about how to survive in adverse natural conditions before leaving !!!
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