Originally posted by: Clochette
question: Are there people profiting from this war? If yes, which kind of people?
#Winners
1. United States : whether they lose 10, 20 or evn 50 billion in a war, its just a small chunk for them. What they gain, however, is control over large oil reserves wherever they intervene. And im specifically saying americans because, in the long run, their citizens benefit as the country remains a superpower with significant control over the global energy sector. So every american benefits from it, whether they support it or not.
2. Russia : The second country gaining highly is russia. The world has started easing sanctions on them due to energy shortages and dependence on oil and gas.
#Losers
1. China : China is losing here as it is gradually losing its allies or puppets. Countries like venezuela and iran are under pressure (they have already lost venezuela though) and even its investments in the afgan-pak region are becoming unstable due to ongoing conflicts betn afgan-pak (though those conflicts are different in nature).
2. Iran : Another major loser is iran (regime). No matter how people try to frame it, iran is taking heavy losses. They are resisting strongly but the damage caused by the US/israel side is huge and in many cases, its irreversible. Even if new leadership emerges, the scale of losses remains huge.
3. GCC Countries : Gulf nations are facing economic setbacks despite not being directly involved. Regional instability affects trade, tourism and investor confidence. Prolonged instability may push investors toward more stable regions like singapore. (I forgot to mention but singapore may also make huge money but lets see)
4. EU : EU will also be affected. Since russia is benefiting, then EU is likely to face losses, as they are often inversely proportional to each other.
5. Energy dependent countries (SoKor, Jp) : Then there are countries that will continue to struggle like south korea, which depends heavily on energy supplies passing through the strait of hormuz. They will face economic pressure and have limited strategic flexibility. They may either remain vassal state to USA or be forced to explore new ones, possibly even china. Japan, however, remains strongly pro USA.
#Neutral players
1. India : India is neither gaining nor losing just like their petrol prices. It has maintained stable energy supplies and balanced relations with multiple sides. However, in the long run, this war could strengthen india’s image as a reliable and development focused partner, leading to more free trade deal.
#Long term gainers
1. Israel : Looking at long term gainers, israel could emerge stronger. Although it is currently suffering losses, if it wins the war, it could become a dominant regional power in the middle east. After weakening iran, other countries in the region will not dare to challenge israel. Despite current damage, israel could benefit in the long run.
2. India (potential) : In the long run, india may also benefit from its neutral stance. As a stable and development focused nation, it might attract more trade partnerships and global trust.
#Actual Winners (conditional)
1. Iranian people : Finally, if the US/israel win the war without using nukes, the biggest long term winners could be the iranian people. They might gain freedom and if stable democracy is established and even if they become vassal state of USA, their development could accelerate, similar to countries like south korea or japan, there is reason why iran is no.4 in world when it comes to IQ. New iran could emerge as major developed nation in the region. Since the losses have already occurred, i just hope the people there get the freedom they truly deserve.
And btw if u are talking about direct profits, the immediate beneficiaries are defense manufacturers worldwide. Companies whose weapons perform better in real world wars tend to gain credibility which translates into large scale contracts and long term deals. And second immediate gainer in terms of money is russia, since sanctions on them have already eased up they are making huge money currently.
Edit: Oh and yes, hamas and hezbollah are also likely to be major losers. Since their sponsors are being hit hard, the flow of funding will shrink, weakening them significantly. Oct 2023 was a huge mistake in the post 2000 world for those organizations. It has truly reshaped middle east geopolitics, possibly forever.
Edited by IamRaj96 - 7 hours ago
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