MY BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR DUNKI - Page 10

Waise it's strange to see posting such emojis like this "", as I never saw such a reaction when others spam the non-chit chat threads with so much spamming, I rarely do such spamming so it's strange to get this emoji "" when I just did it once.

Anyway I'm going to delete my spamming posts in this thread for TM's sake. I really forgot that this is BO prediction thread, as I said sometimes I don't remember which thread I'm posting in. It's not deliberately done🤷‍♀️

Originally posted by: Nishita123

What happened to this prediction thread?? Am I at the right place??
Can you pls help here with the clean up? Sorry hard to keep it up with a non chit chat thread with so much spamming.

Can you report where it started from? There's like 13 pages. That's too many to go through and to know what is spamming and what isn't.

So anyways….

where are you?

Originally posted by: srkat

Shah Rukh Khan. Rajkumar Hirani. One of the biggest Actor-Director collaborations of all time!

One quick look at SRK's 2023 and Raju Hirani's films as a director over the years will show you these box office results: MEGA BLOCKBUSTERS!

Expectations are sky-high. SRK's last two films, Pathaan and Jawan, each respectively emerged as the HIGHEST GROSSING FILM OF ALL TIME. The last time this was achieved was by Raj Kapoor in 1949.....truly historic!

Can SRK create history by completing a hattrick with Dunki? That is the question on everyone's mind!

In my opinion, the answer to that question......

UNFORTUNATELY.......

........IS NO!

In fact, this time, the box office result will be much, much below that of an All Time Grosser!

The trailer....

The theatrical trailer of Dunki was released a few weeks ago. While watching the trailer, when I saw the way that the "Lutt Putt Gaya" song was shown in the trailer, I felt that something has gone wrong with the film.

I can't quite put my finger on it, but it wasn't just the sign of a badly edited trailer. To me, it was the sign of a poorly made film.

SRK.....

SRK's acting.....yeesh. I'm a fan of SRK. But....I don't recall such poor acting from him as I saw in the Dunki trailer. His acting was simple TERRIBLE. What were you mouthing Mr.Khan, and WHY are you talking like that?!

Also, SRK needs to STOP with that stupid Zero look of his: midget, clean shaven, hair down touching his forehead....that look. I don't know who is telling him to keep this look, but he looks absolutely ridiculous. It didn't work with the audience for Fan. Didn't work for Zero. It's not gonna work with Dunki either.

The Red Flags...

There was a red flag I spotted from the beginning. Kanika Kapoor was said to one of the writers of this film. She was also one of the writers for Ra One, SRK's film with arguably the most negative WOM of his career.

I could've ignored any red flags given that its a Raju Hirani film. But my worst fears came true after seeing the theatrical trailer of the film. And it wasn't just my opinion - the public feedback to the trailer was extremely mixed!

The thing is, when you have a big mass action film, you can still get away with mixed public response to your trailer. The audience will still turn up in hordes for the opening day. Even afterwards, Mixed WOM for the film is enough to sail the film to Blockbuster status if it's a very hyped event action extravaganza.

HOWEVER, for a film like Dunki which is relying on content, mixed response to the trailer itself is a huge warning sign.

I've also been tracking progress of the public interest for Dunki on BookMyShow, and although it is showing good gains at the moment, it had been moving at a very slow pace for quite some time, even after the trailer released.

Topic/Theme of Dunki...

Dunki seems to be about a group of people illegally finding a way to go from India to overseas. Nothing wrong with the topic, but I feel that this is a topic that would resonate a lot more with NRIs rather than those living in India. The whole concept and desire of wanting to return home to India is also a very NRI thing, and I don't think it will evoke that strong of an emotion from those living in India.

Dunki looks more like a North Indian drama for the Punjabi community. In fact, I feel that here in Canada where I live, the film will become popular with the Punjabi community, much like how Aamir Khan's Laal Singh Chaddha was popular here last year!

The look of SRK is that from Zero. The story/character of SRK going from Punjab to overseas feels similar to Jab Harry Met Sejal. No wonder many online have been comparing Dunki with both of these films!

Rajkumar Hirani....

I'm seeing a lot of blind faith being placed on Rajkumar Hirani as a director and these people feel that he must have made some masterpiece, but let's take a look at the audience WOM for his films since 3 Idiots:

3 Idiots: ALL TIME CLASSIC, one of the best WOM films in the history of Hindi cinema

PK: Excellent, but a level below 3 Idiots

Sanju: Good

Basically, he peaked with 3 Idiots in 2009, and the WOM for his films has been going a step below the previous film ever since then. Even looking at things in the present, PK gets an extremely mixed reaction for its portrayal of Hinduism/Hindu Gods, and I recall reading that Sanju fared poorly on television. In fact, Sanju was the first Hirani Blockbuster that did its business because of Excellent Marketing and WOM that was just 'Good' rather than the Excellent WOM his other Blockbusters used to carry.

There are all sorts of Twitter accounts and Tweets trying to portray as if Dunki is some "masterpiece" that has been made, yet, I think these rubbish tweets calling the film a masterpiece are being created just to cover up for the low buzz that the film is actually carrying.

SRK Inserting Ideas:

Everyone is aware that there seemed to be a problem that SRK films were having in the 2010s: SRK would start giving his inputs and ideas for the film, and the ideas would be added to the film....even if it didn't fit with the director/story of the film. In some cases, perhaps the director himself moved away from his style of filmmaking to make it more of a SRK film.

JTHJ: SRK wants action scenes added to the film. They are added, and showcased in the trailer. The film didn't require the action. Film underperformed at the box office.

Dilwale: Rohit Shetty makes a SRK-Kajol style love story rather than a typical Rohit Shetty film. The film fares poorly at the box office.

Zero: Heavy involvement from SRK in making this film: heavy VFX, cameos, etc. Anand Rai lost the plot and the film becomes a disaster at the box office.

It appears to me that the same thing has happened here in Dunki. SRK mentioned to a fan on Twitter "thoda sa action maine daal diya hai" and he wasn't sure if Raju Hirani will keep the action in the film. To me, this sounded very similar with SRK inserting action in JTHJ. It creates false marketing through the trailer, and the single screen audience/masses will definitely be disappointed! SRK wasn't sure if action would make it to the final cut of the film, and yet, some action is shown in the trailer of the film itself....a case of wrong marketing to disappoint the masses.

In the announcement video for Dunki, Raju Hirani tells SRK that his signature pose will not be there in the film. Yet, 2 song promos have been released and BOTH show SRK doing his signature pose yet again. This takes the focus away from the content of the film.

Speaking of song promo, what in the world is that weird note at the bottom of the screen during the "O Maahi" song? "Promo version. The film has a different version". The song seemed like a gimmick to try to gather some last minute buzz, and the fact that the song video was filmed very recently and seemingly last-minute is rather alarming...

SRK On Twitter (X)....

I'm also a big enough of a fan of SRK to get a vibe of something being wrong. For his Twitter posts promoting Dunki....he is writing A LOT for each post, compared to how much he was writing when a new promo would come from his previous films. Too much writing and talking about Dunki gives me a feeling of him being insecure about the film and he himself may know that something is wrong.

Smaller Incidents....

Other bizarre incidents have been happening. YouTuber Sonup posts a video criticizing Dunki's trailer....he then posts a video seemingly praising the trailer. He then deletes both videos.

Famous film journalist Himesh Mankad tweeted about SRK meeting exhibitors/distributors for a big party. He then deleted his tweet. He also did a QnA recently answering all sorts of questions....yet answered NOTHING about Dunki.

I don't know want to get into the details and speculate why these things have been happening on YouTube/Twitter, but they have been rather bizarre.

There's a YouTuber named Bobby Bhai. You guys may feel that he is just a YouTuber and his opinion is not important, but he lives in Mumbai and got inside scoop of Pathaan and Jawan being Hit films, prior to the release of each film. In fact, you can find his video before the release of each respective film, where his source told him that both are Hit films. However, the same source told him that Dunki is a dabba (crap) film, a video he released recently.

Other reasons why it seems like the content of Dunki will go wrong

One criticism I have been seeing for the film's promos so far: outdated humor. Some of the comedy is "been there done that", as the haircut scene in the trailer has been in films in the past.

What bothered me though was the same typical dialogues involving the evil "Angrez": how they ruled over India for 100 years, not stopping them despite their inability to speak Hindi, etc. All of these dialogues feel so OUTDATED, and is exactly where I could feel Thugs of Hindostan had gone wrong as well...

The "CURSE OF THE SECOND HALF"

Dunki also strikes me as a film where the "curse of the second half" will strike. I feel that the public response for Dunki will be similar to that of Fan and Zero: appreciation for the first half of the film for setting up SRK's character in an underdog setting (Punjab village in this case), but then CRITICISM and NEGATIVITY for bizarre incidents involving the character happening in the second half.

The second half of Fan was criticized for being over-the-top, as suddenly the Delhi-based fan and his idol were running around chasing eachother in high-octane action scenes in London. The second half of Zero was criticized for the Meerut-based midget being launched to Mars. I feel the second half of Dunki will be heavily critized for this man from a Punjab village going overseas and doing some over-the-top stuff, as we get a hint of in the trailer with SRK throwing punches, going to jail, and about to shoot someone. I feel that some bizarre, unrealistic incidents will take place in the second half involving his character, which I recall someone online suggesting that possibility.

With all that said though, Vicky Kaushal seems like he will get a lot of praise for his performance - it was discussed on Koffee with Karan that SRK feels it's Vicky's career best performance.

Interesting Comment from RGV!

I recall reading a Tweet from Ram Gopal Verma, where he mentioned SRK having a larger-than-life image and how he should NOT be doing films such as 'Fan' and 'Zero'. He tweeted this in April 2016 that SRK becoming ordinary fan and a dwarf is a blunder, and he was proven RIGHT when Zero released in December 2018 and also become a box office DISASTER, much like Fan!

Just look at the titles of SRK films this year.

PATHAAN. JAWAN. Mega Blockbusters...

....and then there's Dunki. To the average viewer, they won't know what this title means, and would associate it with the word "Donkey". It's bad enough that SRK has that midget Zero look in some of the promo footage of the film. The average Indian may just assume that SRK with thus Zero look is playing the title role of "Donkey", which is absolutely NOT what the masses want to see from Shah Rukh. It goes against his larger-than-life image and will be rejected by the masses.

Opening Day....

I'm seeing some people seemingly predict a 30 crore opening for Dunki. This is similar to when some of these "trade analysts" were predicting similar opening numbers for Zero, only for the film to collect 18 crores on its opening day. The fact is that every film to open 30+ crores had a focus on one or more of these elements: larger than life, grand scale, action. Dunki does not come in this category.

Competition: Salaar

Lastly.....Salaar. The film is showing EXTRAORDINARY interest on BookMyShow, MUCH, MUCH HIGHER than that of Dunki, which is to be expected as Salaar is that big mass action film that the public wants to see.

This feels like a repeat of 2018, when director Prashanth Neel's KGF stole the thunder from SRK's Zero as both films released around the same time.

It will be the same this time: Prashanth Neel's Salaar will steal the thunder from SRK's Dunki.

MY FINAL WORD....

Abhijat Joshi, one of the writers of Dunki, mentioned that Dunki is the best film of Raju Hirani. Sorry, but I remember being fooled by hearing similar things from Anand Rai regarding Zero, another film which has that same bizarre look of SRK (as I mentioned earlier). I'm not getting fooled this time!

Some combinations just don't seem like they could fail, on paper.

Aamir Khan-Aditya Chopra? One is a perfectionist who's every film is a huge Blockbuster, and the other one never goes wrong when producing big event Action spectacles. Yet, very few films go as wrong as Thugs of Hindostan did.

Salman Khan-Aditya Chopra-Tiger Series? IMPOSSIBLE to go wrong. They have hit box office GOLD with the Spy Universe. Yet, Tiger 3 was a SHOCKING UNDERPERFORMER, as the content went wrong.

Similar case with SRK-Raju Hirani. Both have been on a golden streak at the box office and it would seem impossible for Dunki to go wrong. But, the film WILL go wrong!

MY BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR DUNKI (India biz):

My Box Office Predictions for Dunki (India biz):

Opening Day: 20 cr nett

Public WOM: Extremely Negative

Lifetime Collections: 94 cr nett

Overall Verdict: DISASTER

I think it will be a disaster but corporate booking may sell it as average to okay. Who knows what the trend will be.

Originally posted by: cherry_fan

So anyways….

where are you?

Main Yahaan Hoon....Yahaan Hoon....YAHAAN! 😅

So it looks like the opening day is 28 cr nett....I would say my prediction of 20 cr nett was A LOT CLOSER, than those who were predicting a 40+ opening!

Originally posted by: srkat

Main Yahaan Hoon....Yahaan Hoon....YAHAAN! 😅

So it looks like the opening day is 28 cr nett....I would say my prediction of 20 cr nett was A LOT CLOSER, than those who were predicting a 40+ opening!

Lol congrats since your super duper bold risk kinda paid off but on the other hand I’m also sorry

Originally posted by: cherry_fan

Lol congrats since your super duper bold risk kinda paid off but on the other hand I’m also sorry

Tell me about it....I have been RESTLESS since I posted my prediction! So worried about whether it would be right or wrong....but I got to a point where I realized the accuracy of the prediction is out of my control. I can't physically control the public of India to come to the theatres just enough to make it become 20 cr opening day

(what are you apologizing for?)

Daym bruh, you actually predicted more accuratr collections than what most people did!

Originally posted by: DushtKanya

Daym bruh, you actually predicted more accuratr collections than what most people did!

Thank you! Not a perfect prediction by me, but yes, I predicted much closer to the actual collection, than most people!

Originally posted by: srkat

Main Yahaan Hoon....Yahaan Hoon....YAHAAN! 😅

So it looks like the opening day is 28 cr nett....I would say my prediction of 20 cr nett was A LOT CLOSER, than those who were predicting a 40+ opening!

From what I’m seeing on social media WOM is somewhere between negative and just mocking. So your final verdict predictions will very likely come true too.